MRE guess30 Sep 2025 10:18
Using AI for a MRE guess
Global Resource: Expected to grow to 1.7–2.0 Moz Au (from 1.5 Moz), driven by 2025 drilling confirming extensions east/west along the 30+ km Junior Lake shear zone and infill upgrading Inferred to Indicated. Reported at multiple cut-offs (e.g., 0.3 g/t, 0.5 g/t) for flexibility.
- Pit-Constrained Resource: A key focus, using Lerchs-Grossmann optimization with updated parameters (e.g., mining costs ~$2.50/t waste, processing ~$12/t, 98% recovery, 5% royalty). Scenarios may include:
- Shallow Bulk-Tonnage Pit: 1.0–1.5 Moz at 1.0–1.2 g/t, emphasizing the "string of pearls" multiple-pits concept.
- Higher-Grade Starter Pit: Targeting 3-4 g/t zones for early cash flow, potentially 300–500 koz at >2.0 g/t.
- Extended/Deep Pit: Incorporating down-dip potential (open below 300m), viable at $2,500+/oz for 200–400 koz additional ounces.
- Rationale: Higher prices justify deeper/wider pits, converting more Inferred ounces (currently 467 koz) to mineable categories.
Will They Use a New Cut-Off Grade?
- Likely Yes, with Adjustments: The 2022 MRE used a 0.3 g/t Au cut-off for global resources, suitable for low-strip-ratio open-pit at $1,500/oz. With prices now at $3,869/oz, a higher cut-off (e.g., 0.4–0.5 g/t) is probable for pit-constrained reporting to prioritize higher-grade, lower-tonnage material—reducing initial capex and improving PFS economics. However:
- Global reporting will retain 0.3 g/t (and show sensitivities at 0.2 g/t and 0.5 g/t) to capture the full 50+ Mt envelope.
- No change to underground cut-offs (e.g., 1.5–2.0 g/t) unless deeper drilling supports a hybrid model.
- Rationale: Cut-offs are tied to economic assumptions; NI 43-101 requires them to reflect RPEEE. At higher prices, a modest increase optimizes IRR while still including 80–90% of prior ounces. Landore's 2025 structural work and drilling focus on grade continuity will refine this.
Potential Impacts and Next Steps
- Resource Growth: Expect 15–30% overall increase (to 1.7–1.9 Moz global), with >70% Indicated, emphasizing shallow high-grade for faster permitting.
- Economic Sensitivities: The MRE will likely include preliminary cash cost estimates ($800–1,000/oz AISC at base case), with upside at spot prices yielding sub-$500/oz.
- Risks: Assumes no major cost inflation (e.g., labor/fuel); volatilities in gold could lead to conservative basing.