The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Good luck to anyone who held on to their shares. You'll need it with this lot.
The licence application was received by the Ministry on 17 April 2014. That information has been on the Chamber of Mines website for over 2 years. As posted by Crunch123 on the ADVFN website this morning, the following link brings up a Chamber of Mines newsletter, dated June 2016. http://www.chamberofmines.org.na/files/3414/7092/8365/Chamber_Newsletter_June_2016.pdf On Page 5 the NRRP application is discussed, in regard to the need for local participation in the project. As you may recall, in August 2016 NRRP added two Namibians to the board of the holding company to assist its licence application and in December 2016 stated that it was “in the process of providing further detail to support the proposal submitted to the Ministry in April 2016 on meeting the new Mining Licence conditions.”
But when false “information” is being posted, it needs to be pointed out. Unfortunately for historical reasons, I (along with dozens of other people) am prevented from posting on “the other side” so I can’t respond directly and IMO the next best thing to do is to point it out on here, on the basis that many posters use all of the different bulletin board websites.
Over on the Interactive Investor board a poster is implying that no RBW account information is available on the company website and that it’s a “Dangerous game investing in a company that doesn't have at least some degree of transparency.” Again, the information is all there if you look for it. Just go to “Investors”, then “Corporate Documents & Presentations”, click on “Prospectus” and you will see several pages of figures starting on Page 81. In the same post he refers to “no visible means of support.” I’ve no idea what this means. Quoting Shares Magazine, “Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW) is backed by investor and developer Pella Resources, best known for helping to build Petra Diamonds (PDL) from a small exploration business to become a FTSE 250 multi-project, £840m market cap miner.” Not that RBW is likely to require any further funding in the foreseeable future.
It’s all in the podcast with CEO Martin Eales. He starts off by saying that they raised $8M in the IPO to cover: 1. CAPEX of $2.3M 2. Working capital to the year end (when first sales are expected) 3. Refinancing to remove a convertible debt from the balance sheet 4. A few creditors to pay All fairly standard stuff in the circumstances. He then goes on to say that it’s “an incredible project in terms of low capex and low operating cost.” Personally I’m more interested in the impressive history of some of the management team and the fundamentals of the project than any past issues surrounding the broker; but each to his own.
As I stated in my previous post, Tom Winnifrith doesn’t tell it “as it is.” In his podcast, Adam Reynolds states a target of £4.5M in revenues for 2017 (a loss of £1M, based on costs of £5.5M). Winnifrith then attributes that figure to “calendar year 2016”, implying that they have already made those sales. Reynolds also states a target of £7.5M for 2018 (£2M profit), which Winnifrith states as the 2017 figure. I’m surprised that no other investors appear to have noticed this, as it’s fundamental to the chances of success of the business. It’s hard to imagine that Winnifrith could make such a basic error and therefore I assume that he is not being entirely truthful in his scenario of spectacular and immediate gains in the share price. For that reason, I am still on the sidelines and as yet undecided about investing here.
I’m considering buying in here but still undecided. However, don’t be drawn in by overblown hype. In the Tom Winnifrith podcast with Adam Reynolds on 19 December, Reynolds clearly states that in 2017 revenues are expected to be £4.5 million and costs £5.5 million, so the business will be loss making this year. He then states that he is aiming for revenues of £7.5 million (£2million profit) in 2018. In his Stock Rockets tip (referred to below), Winnifrith has altered this to revenues of £4.5 million in 2016 and £7.5 million in 2017, (conveniently?) bringing everything forward a year.