Member Info for cyberduck

Nrimmer,

Take a look at BWY too.

HPI still anticipated.

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/the-london-boroughs-defying-brexit-with-thousands-of-new-homes-a124001.html

Also yearly HPI by borough https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/the-london-boroughs-defying-brexit-with-thousands-of-new-homes-a124001.html#gallery Tower Hamlets -2.8%, Newham -0.8%, Islington -2.1%.

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/nearly-7000-upfront-purplebricks-increases-fees-for-second-time-this-year-20180911-h159e4

>Unfortunately everything takes time

It was last October that they were talking about a long term partner, or was it even earlier? It seems like an ongoing story.

Then in July they appoint Savills to find a partner. Does it really take over 6 months to appoint somebody?

Perhaps these parties are expressing great interest but are reluctant to commit? I noticed a couple of the BTR links posted the other day were for other areas of the country.

Just looking at the 2017 October trading update....

"A pre-construction contract was signed with Greystar in June 2017 with the Group expecting to develop just under 900 rental homes in Nine Elms alongside one of the sector's most active investors. Detailed planning consent is expected in early 2018"

Still waiting.

"The Group continues to progress discussions with a number of large-scale investors regarding individual deals and longer term partnerships. This level of engagement demonstrates Telford Homes' reputation as a highly skilled partner which is able to acquire land, achieve planning consents and build quality homes under the brand of a respected London developer. The strength of demand in this sector and the number of institutions looking to employ significant long term capital reinforces the Group's strategy to increase its build to rent activity."

Still waiting.

"The Group has a development pipeline of over 4,000 homes"

I wonder how much the pipeline has grown in the last 12 months. I wonder if it has grown at all.

Sain,

Only a small development though (25 homes?) and partnered with EastEnd Homes Housing Association.

How much profit do you see on this?

>And Cyber, re your comment earlier, I would refer you back to last year and what an underlying profit, & PR, disaster Bovis were at the time - and already the market, in its infinite wisdom, has gone into Supertramp mode...

Perhaps all that is needed to change sentiment towards CRST is a new CEO?

I've heard that TEF have a good one. I'll get my coat :)

Crest have missed their numbers twice in a row now. If they miss their lowered guidance of close to 18% margins then surely the BOD's jobs would be under threat?

I'm leaning towards them erring on the side of caution with their last guidance, but nothing surprises me any more.

Just looking at the annual report.

There doesn't seem to be any particular guidance for the UK other than "we are confident that we can exceed a minimum of 10% total UK market share in the medium term". They don't say what they consider the medium term to be.

This is an inconsistency with the 2017 annual report in which they stated "UK revenue expectations for the current year are raised to some £80m". Then with the 2018 H1 interim report "UK revenue guidance for the full year upgraded 5% from £80m to £84m reflecting a strong first half, recent investment in LPEs and infrastructure, to capitalise on momentum and further increase market share"

Then in February 2018 they released a warning that this guidance would not be met and the actual outcome was revenue of £78.1M from the UK.

Given that the UK has been in profit for some time I would have expected guidance in terms of profit but no guidance whatsoever, even for turnover has been given.

They do give guidance for group revenue for FY19 though "we expect full year group revenues to be in the range of £165m to £185m." and they also say "For the current financial year as a whole we anticipate that the US will become our second largest market by revenues" and "we now expect that Australia will reach monthly profitability within 12 months."

That's all well and good but if they have estimated group revenue then they must have an estimate for UK revenue so why haven't they given it? Personally I see it being harder to be successful overseas than here in the UK and the lack of clarity over what the company expect from the UK is something that puts me off investing. Saying they expect a 10% market share in the UK in the medium term means very little because their estimates going forward just 6 months were missed by a mile and what exactly does "medium term" mean?

One for the brave.

Jimmy_88,

I see you have been posting some of my past statements. Forgive me, but I'm not even going to read them but note you find them amusing :).

I will however point you to a series of posts I made earlier in the year (Feb, Mar & perhaps earlier) with title "Last 24 hours" and "Number of LPEs", pointing out the number of listings from PB on Zoopla and the declining number of LPEs. These were followed by a post from me on 20th March entitled "The silence is deafening" with comment

"Shareholders need a statement from the company like they did back at the start of February.

Is current trading still in line with company guidance?"

On March 26th PB came out with a profits warning.

I closely monitor the progress of PB. Do you?

Do your own research.

Jimmy_88,

"I guess the beauty is in playing the game. In having over a dozen purchases for this share alone, it's fair to say my purchases have varied in price. What matters is not the highest or lowest price paid but the profit from sale. I can safely say I've already made profit here from a retrace which bounced and buying enough shares at the right price but I still hold a portion of shares as I firmly believe there's a long term play here."

After posting your concerns about the share price dropping you posted on 7th March that you had topped up "Just topped up another 859 shares" at what must have been about £3.50. You don't mention any other purchases.

You claim that you have profited from a bounce in the SP and by saying "buying enough shares" it suggests to me you were investing more in value to make up for your losses.

Please explain this investment strategy. How do you identify when the share price is going to bounce. Are you buying now at around £2.66? Surely they must be a bargain if you were buying at £4 and £3.50? You suggest you are holding some shares but not buying. Please explain why you aren't buying more.

Or do you wait until later to decide whether you bought or not?

What was your investment strategy when you bought AFR shares prior to them going into administration? You are clearly questioning your own strategy when you say "We all sit in anticipation to find out if our investments are truly lost but knowing deep down we should've not got involved with such a company at any point this year."

Your complete lack of any reference to the value of a share in any of you posts shows you are a novice investor. Perhaps you've been doing it for a while but you clearly haven't progressed.

Jimmy_88,

>It's all a bit daft in terms of fundamentals. I'd say £1.00 of the price is a gamble on the USA."

>Quite conflicting with your recent comments wouldn't you say lol.

This is entirely consistent with what I am saying now and the opposite to what you are saying. I am saying that the market price factors in success in the USA. Back in March 2017 I was saying the value put on the USA was about £1 which meant at the time I was valuing the UK at about £2.50. But remember back then the story being painted by Hardman was still a reality.

Since then growth in the UK has slowed massively.

Try and keep up!

Jimmy_188,

Your criticism applies to any method that uses estimates.

To just criticise but actually come up with no alternative suggests you are flying blind when you invest. How did you justify paying around £4 for the shares?

Just looked back at your track record of comments. You have commented on only one other share AFR with a title "Administration". "We all sit in anticipation to find out if our investments are truly lost but knowing deep down we should've not got involved with such a company at any point this year."

Then we have posts on PB title "SP taken quite a knock today..." "... Seems to be a bit of a downward trend but I'll happily hold and consider a top up if it goes down too much. Happy to hold for the next year or 2 anyway."

And then on March 18 "Thoughts..." "... On the latest SP drop? Down 15-16% from last week which is a sizeable shift!"

You sound like a complete novice buying on SP movements rather than perceived value.

Did some research on the number of Agents over in the USA. Not 100% sure of the results but I'll pass the info. on:

CA 70
NY 19
LV 8
NJ 8

Back on 16/3/18 I found 47 in CA.

It's the Daily Mail!

If you don't have a mortgage then it's no different.

The landlords who will suffer most are the ones who have mortgaged up to the hilt and bought lots of properties. They can't really cry poverty because, they they have leveraged capital gains. If they own 20% of the property and the property goes up 10% then their capital has increased by 50%.

One option is to move rental property into a limited company. Borrowing costs can then be offset against profit but any capital gain will be realised on transfer.

>By saying it is not factored in by 'any great degree' is a minimalist phrase and should not be confused with a change of stance

Sounds very slippery.

Your original comment of course being "I would disagree with you that the current SP factors in any international success". The key word being "any".

The phrases mean different things. In one case nothing is factored in and in the second something can be factored in.

So you've softened from being sure to not being sure now. Is that it? If not why use a phrase that now suggests there may be overseas success factored in?

>In addition, the risk weighting of 20% which has been added is a figure added by Hardman, it's not a set figure.

Feel free to refine it with a lower discount. But do note I deliberately erred on the side of a higher valuation on multiple occasions. For example I used a p/e ratio of a company that has grown earnings by an average of 50% a year over a long period of time. PB aren't going to do that based on current listing levels being just 8% higher than last year. Also marketing & admin costs were assumed to remain constant and the company has increased them every year and forecast increased marketing costs next year for the UK. I also used a higher profit margin than they are currently achieving.

Still waiting for your valuation of the UK of course :) You're like one of those people who suggest they know better but when it comes to it it's just all hot air and they've got nothing to offer. Come on, what method do you think is the best one for valuing the UK business? Say why? And let's see how you get your calculations to come out higher than the current SP and then we'll discuss the values being used to see if the valuation is generous or not

I've just done a quick calculation using a p/e ratio of 15, a lower margin at 58%, increasing marketing costs at 10% a year but keeping admin costs fixed which is generous. Even with zero discount rate applied the value per share (UK business only) is about 67p in 2021.

Jimmy_88

>That undoubtedly affects the SP at present hence why I believe international success is not being factored in to any great degree (you valued it at over 50% of the current SP so I guess if that's true then it leaves so excellent upside should some positive figures be displayed in the near future).

Ha! Got there in the end! You now agree the SP factors in success :)

OK, that's a complete change in stance. You've gone from success not being factored in at all to not being factored in to "any great degree"

Your comment " I would disagree with you that the current SP factors in any international success though and would actually say the opposite"

Very slippery.

Of course the USA is 10 times the size opportunity of the UK so success being factored in to a degree of 10% would mean that 50% of the SP represents success in the USA.

Take a look back at what I said on 26th August "The fact that the US market is so big makes owning the shares for the long term pretty much a big gamble on the success or failure over there. This is what Zeus Capital said "I estimate the opportunity in the USA is over 10 times the opportunity in the UK because the population in the US is greater, the revenue per transaction is greater and the market is even more fragmented than in the UK."

Rapper,

You can find company announcements on this site. You can get the TEF list of announcements by clicking on the icon at the top of the page labeled "Live RNS".

For other companies type in the company name in the "Share price Search" box on the top left. So for RDW, type in "RDW" or "redrow" then click on the "Live RNS" . You will see the most recent announcement was yesterdays company results.

The companies own websites will also have the company announcements. If you type "redrow announcements" in Google you should see a link to their website.

>With the macro issues facing the UK,this mood may persist for some time

Yes, it might.

There's no law that says a companies share price has to be 8 times earnings. I've seen the likes of BWY values at 4 and 5 times earnings and this was when EPS was growing at 30% a year.

I think Sain would be the first one to admit that the builders' results are actually better than he anticipated when he predicted a SP decline. So he's got the mood of the market right but not necessarily the actual performance.

Sain, forgive me if I've got that wrong.

>They are going to have to catch on at some point that profit growth is sustainable, nobody is actually saying it is from what I can see.

Sorry that was supposed to say...

They are going to have to catch on at some point that profit growth isn't sustainable, nobody is actually saying it is from what I can see.