Member Info for cyan2

Lets start with the basics as revealed by UKOG at the Loxley planning enquiry. Cost of the Loxley drill was THEN estimated at £7m. Full field development after a successful appraisal would be £50m.

These numbers are so way out of UKOG's ability to fund that its obvious UKOG needs at least a free carry for the appraisal drill and testing.

It appears that UKOG's attempts to farmout alone have come to naught despite repeated reports of 'interest'. In order to hopefully move the dial UKOG are throwing their meagre cash resources at Envoi.

It appears from my reading of the farmout proposal is that up to 50% would only cover an appraisal drill; not full field development. I suspect that IF Loxley ever goes ahead the field development would have to be much less ambitious as £50m is FAR to much for UKOG to ever fund 50% of.

The RNS smacks of desperation; its a last chance to excite the punters before a high noon AGM where UKOG are going to have to reveal how on Earth they are going to raise further basic working capital ( translation ; how to keep paying high wages and spinning the dream chases longer).

Annual report. Extract from "going concern" ;

"....the Company, if required, will take actions to address any cash constraints by seeking to raise capital through equity or debt. Whilst there can be no certainty that sufficient funding can be obtained in the timescales required, the Directors are confident of their ability to raise capital, which is supported by successful capital placements in the past.

For these reasons the Directors adopt the going concern basis in the preparation of the Financial Statements however confirm that there remains a material uncertainty that may cause significant doubt over the going concern nature of the Group.

The independent auditor's report also refers to material uncertainty related to going concern."

Do not say you were not warned; raising "SUFFICIENT funding". Can not be done now by issuing shares, imo

Its ridiculous that a company can declare them selves a 'going concern" on their past history of issuing confetti.

The game is up.

Yes , the £275k 'profit' relates to that on oil production only and excludes other costs; Certainly does not cover Sanderson's wages

UKOG reported

"An Operating loss for the year of £3.5 million was recorded"

My totalling of fund raises only goes back to 2017;

UKOG fund raises since 2017 ;

19.5.17 £6.5m placing

15.11.17 £10m loan

15.6.18 £5.5m Placing

2.7.18 £5m placing

4.7.18 £2m placing

27.3.19 £3.5m placing

7.8.19 £5.5m loan

2.12.19 £2m placing

28.4. 20 £1.275m placing

4.6.20 £ 4.2m placing

2.10.20 £2.2m placing

5.7.21 £5 m Placing

27.07.21 open offer O.462554 M

27.7.22 £1.25 m Placing

12.9.22 £3m Placing RNS extract "... at a price of 0.0875 pence per share (the "Placing Price").

The Placing Price represents a discount of approximately 20.3 per cent to the Closing Price of 0.1098 pence per Ordinary Share on 9 September 2022" Just look at how the share has slumped since then

28.06.2023 £3m loan

12.01.2024 0.75m placing

" The Placing Price represents a discount of 20 per cent to the Closing Price of 0.0250 pence per Ordinary Share on 11 January 2024"

£61,137,554 since 2017

Since 2017 UKOG have raised £61,137,554 ; that's an average of £8.7m every year.

Where has it gone? What's to show for it? Where's the 'value'?

Its been suggested that UKOG might have to be shrunk to just HH; I would add Horndean .

But the returns on all those oil tankers yielded an overall profit of just £275 k last year. The previous year it was £310K and the year before that a LOSS of £189K.

The company loses millions every year.

The company gets away with declaring itself a 'going concern' because they have a record of 'successfully' issuing more **** shares and EXPECT to be able to go on as before.

Their report includes this explanation ;

"The group's continued future operations depend on the ability to raise sufficient working capital through the issue of equity share capital or debt financing. The Directors are confident that adequate funding will be forthcoming with which to finance operations."

Was Sanderson was worth his £26 K increase in his pay; now £338K?. Madness.

This company is close to collapse and all the discussion is about the AGM and AIM rules.

Smell the coffee guys. If this company staggers on to an AGM it will be more like a wake.

The ability of this company to raise sufficient working is close to zero imo ; who wants more **** confetti.

This company is no longer a going concern, imo.

But, some will hang on for the miracle of a Loxely farmin .

Penguins lists possible activity and concludes ;

"But none will see instant activity, just news and plans, with the next drill 2025 - if ever"

The BIG issue is UKOG are close to running out of cash, NOW. By summer at latest they will need a LARGE cash injection just to keep the lights on.. They need 225k each month for basic admin alone. With the market cap around £1.2m now ; how on earth can they equity fund raise enough again to actually do anything?.

A share of another "roll of the dice" gamble in a Türkiye drill costs UKOG circa £1.2m .

Looks like UKOG must have had to stop all 'investing activities' with the exception of Portland planning.

Raising further cash is going to be 'challenging'

The only rabbit that can save extreme pain / likely death ; would be completing a Loxley farmout.

UKOG wants a free carry. No surprise there as the drill cost is £7m.

UKOG can not afford to contribute anything. If Loxley is farmed out , imo, it would excite enough to get another confetti shower away even if UKOG were only left with a 10% interest.

Been on the market a long time has Loxley and I just don't think its going to happen.

After all production costs UKOG made £275k profit on ALL the oil they produced in the WHOLE year; basically insignificant.

6 months on (actually nearer 7 now) maybe half that 275k to puff out the cash position. But its swings and roundabouts ;factor in nearer 7 months admin costs and oil profit boost has gone .

The clue that they are in a desperately poor cash state is in that January £0.75m placing was needed to fund basically just paper submissions in regard to the Portland ambitions and WORKING CAPITAL.

The other clue to UKOG struggling is the lack of any news as regards to remedial actions at HH aimed at improving production.

They can not afford to do anything; even paper planning seems a challenge now.

"Hang on ,they did a placing in January £750.000 and they had £1.9 million at the end of the financial year."

The accounts tells you the story as to why UKOG can be assumed to be running on fumes . The admin ALONE runs at circa £2.7m p.a.

Its been 6 months since UKOG had £1.9m at ye 30.09.23. (Actually £1.868m in cash to be exact)

So we can assume that circa £1.35 M has been burnt since . That would leave £0.55m if it not for £0.75 placing.

In theory UKOG might have a maximum of £1.3 m NOW.

But reading the 0.75 placing RNS points to the need to further finance the Portland ambition AND provide working capital.

Its obvious that UKOG's cash position must be well south of £1.3m NOW.

How long will that last?

I agree with Ilovesushi.

You just have to look at just how little disposable cash has coming in.

" UKOG's net share of Horndean production revenues was £297,000 for calendar year 2023, with net earnings after costs of £140,000."

Overall profit from oil production was £275k. It follows that the profit from HH production was only £135K.

It has to be a priority to improve HH performance by injecting, changing the downhole pump and descaling . Yet, the lack of activity suggests UKOG have run out of the cash.

Its patently obvious UKOG do not have the cash to pay their share of any new HH wells either.

I can not see how they can raise enough cash without authorisation to create a ridiculous number of new shares, BUT, would they be able to offload?. Looks like sourcing further death spiral financing may now be off the table.

UKOG base their 'going concern' on their previous successful history of equity based fund raises.

Its now a matter of how much cash UKOG has left and whether they can quickly get a miracle farm out of Loxley with a significant cash up front component. I do not see it happening.

Of course; price of oil surging to $400 a barrel would be enough to keep the lights on BUT that's pretty unlikely, imo.

Looks like the end is in sight, imo.

UKOG tweeted these both on 12th Feb ;

"UKOG

@UKOGlistedonAIM

·

12 Feb

HORSE HILL LATEST: UKOG planning a downhole pump changeout and scale removal programme to enhance oil production from HH-1. Further updates to follow.

UKOG

@UKOGlistedonAIM

·

12 Feb

HORSE HILL LATEST: UKOG considering a downhole pump changeout and scale removal programme to enhance oil production from HH-1. Further updates to follow."

I suspect that 'planning ' and 'considering' is about all they can afford/do at the moment as there has been no further tweet on the matter. How much would it likely cost?

Ummm , "The countdown to lift off begins …" Really.?

UKOG needs a lot of cash up front .

Sanderson better pull an amazing rabbit out of the hat PDQ.

The company is in DESPERATE need of cash. I suspect administration is getting pretty close now as this hugely loss making company, imo, no longer appears to be a going concern.

Bubble point point wrote "ITS BROCKHAM not BALCOMBE,"

The point of my post was in response to Ocelot's line;

"Balcombe is a promising horizontal well into the Kimmeridge so may have implications for UKOG."

Ocelot appears to be trying to make a general implication about the Kimmeridge and how it impacts UKOG.

We know that UKOG have acknowledged that both Broadford Bridge and Horse hill Kimmeridge are not commercial.

I am highlighting Angus previous experience with the Kimmeridge which they gave up on at BALCOMBE.

Will the Kimmeridge be found anywhere commercial based on all theses and other companies previous experiences?

Appears unlikely to me and UKOG do not now talk themselves about retrying to extract oil from the Kimmeridge by any other means or technique.

Sanderson had his general theory of enormous wealth (retiring to the Bahamas) based on his continuous oil deposit theory ;COD.

Unfortunately its 'tight' and UKOG seem no longer interested in the COD as evidenced by their preference for spending money in Türkiye instead, rather than on using new techniques at BB.

The Kimmeridge dream is dead.

Ocelot wrote "Balcombe is a promising horizontal well into the Kimmeridge so may have implications for UKOG."

Have Angus changed their tune since 2022?

Angus RNS dated 27th April 2022

"Update on Brockham Oil Field

The Company is pleased to announce that the Planning Committee of Surrey County Council today passed a resolution to approve the Company's plan to abandon the Kimmeridge layer and reperforate the Portland layer in well BRX4-Z subject only to a unilateral undertaking to secure a routing agreement on HGV movements.

Angus' existing Environment Agency permit requires minor variation to allow production from the Portland as opposed to the Kimmeridge in this well and the Company is in discussion with officers of the Agency in this regard. Following such variation the Company would proceed to reperforate at the earliest opportunity."

"..the Company's plan to abandon the Kimmeridge layer.."

No surprise after their 28th June 2019 RNS;

Extract;,

"it is extremely unlikely that commercial hydrocarbon flow can be established from the Kimmeridge layer at Brockham.."

After the late reported 15 million yesterday and the 32 million the day before its no real surprise to me to see a delayed trade today of 28,870,773 at 0.05.

I have reviewed the numbers and I see no way out for UKOG now.

The numbers are there for all to interpret themselves.

The company can not finance anything other than paper planning and keeping the lights on for a few months more.

PPP are no white knight and are cash poor.

Its now, imo, on a one way trip to administration I am afraid.

Ocelot wrote "any positive news from whatever source could see this share price shoot up."

From where? What? The next significant news will almost certainly reveal more dilution. That will not cause the share to 'shoot up'; more likely the complete opposite .

The numbers revealed in the results and the known costs of furthering any project clearly shows UKOG will struggle to fund anything significant.

Has UKOG the cash AND time to drill again in Türkiye?. UKOG's share of another 'roll of the dice' there is circa £1.2m. I do not see it happening; their finances are dire.

Indeed, a grave warning;

"Material uncertainty related to going concern

We draw attention to note 2b in the financial statements, which indicates that the group will require additional funding in the coming twelve months to meet their ongoing cash requirements. Whilst the directors anticipate that such funding may be obtained from a number of sources, there can be no certainty that such sources of funding are obtained in the timeframes necessary. As stated in note 2b, these events or conditions, along with the other matters as set forth in note 2b, indicate that a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the company's ability to continue as a going concern. "

My translation; Its going to be tough raising anymore cash and we could collapse into administration.

"they are working stock "out" for someone "

Probably right. Anyone notice yesterdays late reported 32 million and todays late reported 15 million?

Someone dumping big time. Pretty obvious why....

"It will not be long before there is more dilution. "

Of course; lets be frank; this company loses a FORTUNE every year. It can not go on without selling increasingly devalued shares.

UKOG explained this in their results RNS;

"The group's continued future operations depend on the ability to raise sufficient working capital through the issue of equity share capital or debt financing. The Directors are confident that adequate funding will be forthcoming with which to finance operations."

UKOG depends on persuading others to part with their cash to progress dream chases. UKOG needs to find £7 million to gamble drill Loxley to see if its commercially viable.

As for Hydrogen; UKOG ONLY needs $1 BILLION; its ludicrous .

Why would anyone want to partner a company that has a LONG history of inflating their pet projects prospects yet has a record FAILING again and again.