Extract2 Feb 2025 12:04
Charles Archer small cap mining 2nd.Feb.
Let the games begin.
As for Amaroq, the ‘Disney’ story is over. I’m unsure what the technical term for this is on the Lassonde Curve (or even if there is one), but the bottom line is that first gold has been produced, the MRE update is on the way, they’re exploring all over Greenland…but within the next few months, the story is going to be about ramping up production, gold produces, AISC, tax rates etc etc
This is similar to Greatland Gold, in that the story is now about the profitability of the company. I remain of the view that AMRQ is undervalued compared to the free cash flow it will generate by the middle of 2025.
It’s also king of Greenland in terms of exploratory tenure and drilling capacity. Given Trump’s interest in the island, it may grow much faster than you think.
As for Greatland Gold, that’s a stonking rise and I would not blame anyone for taking some profits off the table. However, while the GGP story is again about production and profit (all going according to plan here), I’d argue that next rise is actually going to come from a certain US-based ETF buying shares in order to follow its underlying index.
I’ve had roughly a dozen messages highlighting this discrepancy now, so if anyone can come up with a simple explanation, please comment below.
But for brevity, the US version of the VanEck Small Cap Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) appears to hold significantly less of GGP than it ought to based on the index it tracks.
The US version holds $20,180,729.82, or 0.41% of its total holdings, in GGP as of Friday based on daily holdings - you can check here, but make sure to change the site to the US investor side.
On the UK side, GGP represents 0.8% of holdings, so - and please, please remember this is just speculation - the US version of GDXJ may be obliged to roughly double its position and buy up $20 million in GGP soon.
Can anyone say short squeeze?