Member Info for cszjrh01

Great to hear and not surprised the company is ramping up its sales/marketing activity to accelerate organic growth. With the four cornerstones in place now - PLAC, BOAGF, AAACX and AILAC - plus Chad joining they should have everything they need to accelerate those inflows.

Also seeing quite a tick up of media coverage around Life Settlements as an investment class for the wider equity market reasons you mention which can only help too.

Looking on L2 there's very little on the ask until 3.3p.

IMO - in a word, yes.

$2B AUM, 30bps to 50bps policy admin charge (as the lowest of the revenue streams to the company has), some guesstimate BAU opex costs, a conservative P/E of 10, no further dilution and I get to 10-17p per share. Then if the company becomes an acquisition target, 1.5x-2x that.

However, based on the broker note it sounds like $2B AUM is very conservative and will probably be exceeded, we will see some warrants exercised along the way to fund acquisitions but equally the above doesn't include any of the fund performance payments etc.

Another 250K buy gone through under 3p. Impressively controlled acquisition going on.

Late printed 250k buy @ 2.875p.

Agreed. Fourth (?) recent attempt to break 3p. Each time we bounce off it there's less and less volume released so eventually our background buyer is going to have to admit defeat and acquire above 3p.

Agreed. I guess the broker note is just one part of the puzzle and there will be further comms to come. What it does provide though is excellent collateral when the board and their advisors are out meeting new clients and new potential investors week in, week out. Allenby are also busy pushing the note out to their clients so it will be interesting to see if that drives more activity in the coming days and weeks.

I guess ultimately the release of the broker note can only achieve a certain level of visibility though. The FY22 results RNS will drive more interest when they show the company at break-even. We may then see an updated broker note released, plus we never know when the next acquisition will land.

I did some digging around late last year and found that pretty much all of the FTSE micro and small cap indexes were showing down 30% in 2022 so ALGW's flat performance actually was actually positive against that backdrop. However we can all see that the share price here doesn't reflect the growth that's happened in the last 12-18 months. If Alpha attract the right investor or two that will change quickly and they'll have to pay more to get in than we have.

I was just reflecting on the broker initiation note that landed yesterday and pulling together some of the key highlights for my own notes:
- Estimated FY22 revenue of £4.15m and gross profit of £1.5m are very positive numbers and a massive step on from the 2021 16 month accounting period. This demonstrates the kind of revenue PLAC is already generating and this will only increase as the organic growth continues. This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that these are profit making companies Alpha are acquiring and moves the group as a whole within touching distance of its first pre-tax profit. Also the kind of policies PLAC and AILCX are dealing in aren’t like car insurance policies that are renewed each year with customers shopping around. These are long term arrangements with steady revenue year after year.
- The FY23 projections begin to show the growth potential of Alpha with revenue rising to £6m with a healthy pre-tax profit of £660K. They show revenues ramping up without a significant operating cost increase.
- Also in the financials is a £3.4m "profit on bargain purchase" booked in FY22 showing that Alpha has acquired its insurance businesses below book price as they were seen as non-core by the sellers, despite being healthy businesses in their own right. This is important as it opens up even more financing options to the company for future acquisitions. Though with a theoretical maximum of £5.6m available from the Warrant Holders I doubt they'll need it. Historically we’ve seen something like a 1:100 ratio for acquisition price to AUM so the £5m could fund another very significant acquisition.
- The comment about some of the acquisition targets in their pipeline being "substantial" (up to c$1b AUM) suggests that the companies stated Plan 2B of $2B AUM may well turn out to be very conservative and quickly surpassed. ‘Plan 10B’ has a nice ring to it.
- The final comment about the company now having an established base of four profitable businesses can't be overstated. It's long been a discussed aim of the company to build a business that would become an attractive future acquisition target itself. Given how regulated the regions Alpha operates in are, and the life insurance sector is in general, it would take a competitor literally years to construct something akin to Alpha from scratch. It therefore becomes easy to see how attractive the company will be when it's grown even further and become truly established.
With all of the above you can see why the company has attracted a number of substantial PI holdings and is now starting to appear on the radar of institutions. It will also certainly appeal to Family Offices and UHNWs who become customers of one or more of the company cornerstones. These aren't holders who are looking for quick beer money but will be holding for a number of years and I suspect many will be looking to hold until Alpha are acquired. I know I am!

Sounds like the 2B Plan will need to go through some rebranding before we're done here.

Broker Note is out and a great read for anyone wanting a consolidated view of the business and it's potential:

ALGW Tweet: We are very pleased to announce that the @AllenbyCapital research team have today initiated coverage of
@algwplc. The broker note provides a great overview of our business and is a great tool to explain our story to existing and prospective shareholders.

https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/02/20230208-Alpha-Growth-plc-ALGW.L-Allenby-Capital-Initiation-1.pdf?c3464=on

No. I've got a good holding but just a little under the TR-1 threshold.

3p paid and a TR-1 just released.

My suspicion, and its nothing more than that, is that they've held back over the last few weeks to align a few good news items into a concerted PR push to try and attract new investors starting with Allenby clients then working out from there.

1.2m delayed buy through. People taking positions or adding to them ahead of the FY results.

Don't be a mushroom. There's excellent information out there if you go looking for it.

Some nice buying come in. Suspect our background buyer won't get too many more around this price.

Yup. And our background buyer is still there picking them up. Nice price for that 645K buy.

I'd give this roughly a 0% chance reaching 2p again.

BOAGF AUM and Performance Figures due imminently which I expect will show FY22 fund performance over 7%.
Then the FY22 group accounts will be coming in March/early April which will have a full year of PLAC revenue, 5 months of AILAC revenue, BOAGF management fee revenue, a few months of AAACX management fee revenue and maybe even a few quid from Havelet.

Agreed. Happy to accept that last year was a write-off because of the wider market conditions and the acquisition taking longer than anticipated but we need to see things ramping up this year. Hopefully the confirmation of the BOAGF FY figures is waiting to be released with some other piece of news - Broker Note, confirmation of any performance bonus due given the 7% hurdle rate, a further acquisition maybe.

The share price not moving forward last year despite the good news I can also live with given every smallcaps index was 30%+ down last year so not moving forward is actually a gain. However it will only move this year on the back of more frequent comms.

Late buys again today.

Couple of late printed buys I see and a blue close. After someone on here trying to talk the share-price down all day. Hmmmm.......

It's usually 'buyer beware' but this feels like 'holders beware'.

Everyone clearly very excited about the next set of announcements given the number of posts yesterday.

Don’t forget last year BOAGF FY update came out on the 2nd Feb and we won’t expect the company FY results until end of March/April so a bit more patience required.