Member Info for Cpt.Hornblower

Complete waist of 10 minutes of my life reading that report.

Who was the previous toff of aviva, that wanted his crandfather clock crainlifted into his office. (Not the correct CEO), but one of their either chairman or CEO.

Managements job is to support the board of the directors. And the board of directors job is to make make money for the company. Not visiting the member clubs smoking cigars.

No wonder the Americans beat the crap of out the UK companies

Disappointing results, not interested in 'board' increaess in the dividend. This is just 'left over profits' from earnings.

Earnings going nowhere, dividends shouldn't be increased.

This is why many UK companies are stuffied. The board sits in its ivory towers dictating '5yr dividend growth plans' that totally ignore the underlying business.

Cut my position by 50% and not waiting until ex-dividend.

Lol share price capital loss offsetting any dividend!!!

patience... patience...

No need to add to position!!!

Nah I am waiting, no point buying whilst the share price is declining. WIth the release of the half year results, the market is informed (as all results are aware to the market), the market was not happy with the results, hence the share price declining.

And in addition I think the market is becoming very concerned with the illegal tobacco and vaping market. Its taking sales away from the legal importers.

Big problem around the world (just go to BATS listed subsidiaries in other stock exchanges around the world and read about the decline in profits because of illegal importation).

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=19971108

First time heard of Phoenix Group ( I am not based in UK).

So did a bit of a quick overview and it seems very risky. Unfortunately this chat site doesn't allow me to cut and post. So I suggest people do their own D.D. A simple web search on fundamentals should do it.

Do the same search on Legal and General.

L&G seems much lower risk.

Like I said, market doesn't seem estatic about the results, and after initially rising on the first couple of hours of trade (probably a result of bots trading on algorithms, the share price is now retracing.

Lucky for those that didn't buy into result.

I am waiting, not adding, there is a serious risk of further share price declines.

Market doesn't seem that ecstatic about the results. Initially up 3% on the opening but now trending down.

Three issues of concern:

a) The revenue miss vs consensus

b) The large reduction in combustibles, especially in the US. (all their profit comes from this sector!!). BATS trying to offset this through price increases, but volume declines larger than expected is never good (can't increase prices for ever!!)

c) Board explicitly says '65% dividend pay out over the medium term. Leaves the market suspicious that with the boards explicit mention of debt reduction, that dividend increases will be less than market expectations.

Always pays to get the market's feel through share price movement on the day of profit announcement.

I will wait before adding further.

And this 'forced' price increase is through government taxation. ie the government is trying to increase its share of the pricing, its not a 'force' price increase without corresponding taxation. Hence the increased black market.

Thanks for the update and the 'UK' perspective.

My concern is that as governments 'force' up the price of a packet of cigarettes, this encourages the black market through pricing arbitrage.

For the UK this now represents two hours of work on minimum salaries.

In other countries, for example, Australia the price between 'legal' and 'illegal' cigarettes is now approaching 50%.

Stupid governments, applying their regid tax schemes, with no regards to the effect this has on the illegal market.

We are in interesting times!!!!

Are cigarettes really 13 squid in the UK now?

That’s crazy. No wonder the illegal smoking industry is rife in the uk as well. Government so stupid as to not even protect its own tax revenue

Lol didn’t expect the market to push bats share price +4% odd since I posted a couple of days ago, but I will take it. Assuming share price holds I make 13% Inc dividends, beats inflation lol.

If share price pulls back, given this is a first position at 25 pounds odd plenty of room to dollar average downwards from here.

Price is what you pay value is what you receive

After existing my positions in 2022, I am back in today. Bats is a risky stalwart (Peter Lynch), risky because of debt with a rising interest rate, and risky because their primary source of profits: cigarette sales are in decline.

But there is a price for everything.

Earnings are still growing, cash flow at least for now, well covers dividends.

Those dividends are much higher than several years ago.

For me, as part of a diversified portfolio, its worth a 'punt'.

Dividends are expected to increase next year, and management is guiding for low single digit earnings growth.

Lets see how it goes, but from a share price of around 25 pounds, I am happy to take a position and maybe dollar average downwards from here.

That 9% dividend yield means I don't have to wait too many years, until my capital is returned in dividends anyway!!!

Thanks Rodmitchell.
My primary concern is both a return of my capital and a return on my capital. That is why entry points for BT share ownership is important.

Anyone can trall back through the BT threads, I did own it previously, but have subsequently offloaded my position, essentially because of preservation of capital.

BT Group is still a work in progress in my opinion.

Thanks SEA7, but job opening has no impact on long term valuation of BT Group. This is an operational issue and not strategic valuation issue.

This is all speculative on your behalf fleecy and has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals of the company.
Your hypothesis is based on the premise of an insider acting. If that insider doesn't act in accordance with your premise, then what do you fall back to??

Hence my requirement for margins of safety. I want insurance policies, and my easiest insurance policy is margin of safety.

I have my margin of safety, then your insider can act how he likes, if he acts as you suggest, I make money, if he doesn't I still make money.

Basically I like to make money with a very high degree of probability.

I suggest you read the independent BT pensions report. There was annual report that was released some time ago. Very good reading. Forget that 1b as the limit of the liability.

They are agricators, they take all the long term broker analysis detailed spreadsheets and aggregate them into an average.

If 2023, then these will be reflected, you just need to go through the fully body of analysts reports, not just the free '1st page summary. 2024 and future years maybe yes and maybe no.

lol Bootsox, this has to be a personal decision on your behalf.

All I can say is that truthfully, I enjoy smoking, I also enjoy drinking alcohol.

There was no secret corner street dealer trying to conduce me to try one of their wares.

I would say for many, its not the ethical grounds, but the fact that the ESG crowd indirectly force limiting demand for the shares, this by definition leads to lower share prices.

But for me, I am an absolute investor, I invest based purely on the underlying business relative to the price I pay to acquire that business (which includes 1 share of that business).
Being popular never concerned me, buying companies in the hope that others would find that company more attractive in the future never concerned me.

All that concerns me is both a return of my capital and a return on my capital, and this is heavily determined by the underlying business and then paying an intelligent price for that underlying business.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.