RE: RE: Let be Positive (Dan The Man) Instead Of Doom & Gloom All The Time !!!25 Oct 2021 20:13
I think Dan is saying that NR & Dan were apparently in cuckoo land? :0)
I don't think the Zubairs will be looking for another portion of Ruvuma, although happy to be proved wrong as they could have got is cheaper at the same time as the AEX deal, value has been added since as it has become de-risked and resources increased.
There are other cash rich companies in O&G in Tanzania who may be interested in a large and cheap onshore gas development that appears to be the next major gas project in Tanzania along with the LNG.
But there again, the BOD have been clear they will fund it to production if required, the EPS pays back in less than 12 months of production after all.
Seems we are not so far apart holy ref BLOE at least. Do you know if the money for the 2 wells was for the drilling and completion to production? I have been caught out before with BOD claims after the fact that the well monies quoted was dry hole costs only....
Not sure holy that a comparison with SCIR is in any way useful, the delays there in terms of Ruvuma have been 100% due to the Tanzanian Gov, thankfully since the last president was voted out and the energy minister replaced this year it's all green lights there now.
I am not fully convinced that BLOE are fully funded and I expect to see a placing before year end especially without decent flows from WR-B1a despite what the board claim in their RNS, this well has already cost significantly more than was budget ($3 mill) exactly by how much we will have to wait and see.
Like you say lets hope we see 500 boepd sustained flows.
Personally I would want to see a change post WR-B1a results and not wait any longer if it's a dud. If the well does not perform then you have to question both the business model and the ability of this BOD to act as operators. They would be better just buying production from an experience driller and operator and maintaining a non operator low G&A workforce. Either that or dump the lot of them and bring in an experience team with previous successful operating experience in country.
RE: RE: Let be Positive (Dan The Man) Instead Of Doom & Gloom All The Time !!!25 Oct 2021 09:41
Well Dan, best thing to do is look at the history, NT-1 was a low cos drill but came in with a high flow rate drill, NT-2 had a COS of around 65 to 70% as an appraisal well and delivered a 10X increase in resources along with a 700% increase in the SP.
Seems to me you are just misleading investors again and trying to manipulate the market, bad enough if you were a just a PI. I think I will put your comments today here along with;
Sell HE-1 @7p Ruvuma is worth $0 And now a 3 bag on the appraisal drill is unlikely.
RE: RE: Let be Positive (Dan The Man) Instead Of Doom & Gloom All The Time !!!25 Oct 2021 08:22
I disagree it is not misleading at all, and a bit of a joke coming from you Dan who posted here that Ruvuma was worth $0 just 2 weeks ago, get real (extremely misleading)
In fact the probability of the drill coming in positive is extremely high as you well know, at least for the Appraisal portion of the drill as this is the 3rd well on the licence area and it will be drilled post 3D
So I stick with my 100% now to up to 300% or more on the drill.
RE: RE: Let be Positive (Dan The Man) Instead Of Doom & Gloom All The Time !!!25 Oct 2021 08:08
I think that's the short term bet Dan as you posted the other week, if they sell for around the last market value then we see around a doubling of the share price. If not sold by the drill, then as others have pointed out you could be looking at X3 or X4 return from these prices.
So the bet right now is short term 100% or this time next year X3 or more return.
1st week December seems about right, this well needs to flow at a sustainable production rate, no 1000 or 500 boepd initial results followed by a huge decline 3 months later. So better that they do it slow and careful imo. I have seen mixed results from such treatments in the past even where the chemicals have reduced the flow even further so the jury is out on this one till flows are published.
RE: Let be Positive (Dan The Man) Instead Of Doom & Gloom All The Time !!!23 Oct 2021 21:24
The arrangement is what it is and was put in place to protect Ruvuma, actually something the old BOD and new both recognised in spades thank goodness. Personally I prefer the arrangement to a discounted placing of 10 to 15% and 10% fees that some seem to prefer.
Question is will anymore funding even be needed or will the BOD sell the Tanzanian gas assets, and invest in their strategy which is clearly the polar opposite to Hydrocarbon production?
RE: RNS Tanzania 3D starts 15th Nov22 Oct 2021 17:45
Well dave I am sure your friend agrees, as in Dan but to say No money is clearly wrong. But if by that you mean do they have $30 to $35 million for FFD, then no not at this stage of development. If you mean do they have the ability to fund the current agreed work programme, then probably yes. They have cash + at least another $3 Million available not including any sale of the remaining HE-1 shares.
Surely everything depends on any offer and the price? The BOD have been clear that they will fund Ruvuma to production if required (expected 20230 and I am sure they have the means and contacts to deliver especially post production.
My question was what would shareholders agree to and vote for? $15 Million $20 Million $25 Million $30 Million etc
RE: RNS Tanzania 3D starts 15th Nov22 Oct 2021 16:56
If you had of posted that last year and under the old Government then I would have agreed Aimster. However, we have seen huge strides forward from the new president and Energy minister, LNG talks with Shell etc start next week, Farmout approved with Ara/AEX, 2 year extension licence granted, Tax dispute settled, the new Gov seem to be in a rush to get this gas monetised whilst they still can. I would expect an almost immediate approval, if indeed it will not be pre-approved.
The question for me is what might be offered and would shareholders here broadly approve?
APT's revised mapping and internal management estimates suggest a gross, mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf (8,236 Bcf unrisked), in multiple lobes to be tested and a gross, mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf (5,419 Bcf unrisked).