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Nice to see so much passion from posters!
The deadlock can only be ended by ARA reporting back on their planned development to production and the long list of items that are due/overdue including the 3D results, flow test results, Ground broken for the pipeline, Rig contract/spud date GSA, Licence etc etc etc.
I sincerely hope some of these are reported on prior to the AGM on the 13th of July!
Facts, you mean like in the recently published annual report below Rojo.
"There are several positive factors to report on the Group’s
financial position as at the end of 2022. Cash and cash
equivalents stood at US$5.81 million, US$30.7 million of the
Group’s carry remained on the Ruvuma PSA (equivalent to
US$122.8 million of gross expenditures) and all debt had been
repaid"
Enjoy old town, very nice.
No RoJo their list is simply what the operator is saying, nothing wrong with that & I will change my mind/timescales as news flow indicates. I do think it is possible they hit first gas October/before year end but would not be surprised if they don't meet their own timescale and am more cautious with a Q1 24 expectation.
What's your estimate?
Personally and as stated several times RoJo, I think the operator will be very hard pushed to meet their October deadline for first gas. It's not impossible but my expectation is that it is more likely Q1 24 for production. There is a very long list of news worthy items they have to complete before then.
Ah shove up the list Jolly and let the guys type in against each point exactly what their counter argument is to the $35 million carry to production and all the steps along the way. I am sure they have some different opinions to the Operator who has started the process of chucking over $100 million into the project. Who knows we might see some intelligent conversation and debate :)
You guys bully boys in real life or just when you hide behind a key board, the latter I expect as with most cowards.
Aimster, I fully recognise that Tanzania is a law unto itself when it comes to timescales and yes the Sp did in fact fall below 0.5p with the historical delays, however if you bought a bunch at that price as many of us did then you have already doubled your money and investors have made a packet.
All swings and roundabouts Aimster, please try and be a little more balanced and less personal with your posts maybe?
Next year, yes production next year as opposed to the operators claim of October 23 is certainly possible, it would however seem a little ignorant to focus only on the water that has passed under a very large bridge and ignore the $35 million carry to production, flow tests, GSA, drilling of CH1, 3D results, FID etc.
Maybe not all this year Rodney?
Umm there current Hydro power keeps running dry due to lack of water and putting even more pressure on gas supply, this is forecast to be worse over the coming decades due to Global warming, leaving Tanzania to rely even more on Gas to power.
Still lets ignore that shall we as it does not meet the narrative of certain posters here. Oh an by the way the LNG project PSA is due for signature this month I believe.
All good for gas it seems.
What is officially to come ...
First Gas still expected October and according to May RNS and the GSA and the FFD contracts are imminent."
The following expected during the interim period.
Pad Location decision - TICK ONE
AGM announcement imminent
NT2 flow test results
Scirrocco deal completion
3D results
Gas sales agreement. Government announcement today. Awaiting RNS confirmation
FFD sign off
25 year development licence
Ch1 pad construction
Rig contracted Spud date
Drilling of 3rd appraisal well
NT1 well workover
Pipeline completion
First Gas Production from NT2
All fully funded and all expected this year!
Personally I speculate spud will take place a this year but after first gas. I believe they are waiting for a specific rig currently in a neighbouring country which is planned to be spudded around August time
Future:
Farm Out of Nyuni License.
Recent Addition with an unknown timeline
The government shows confidence in asking Aminex to Farm out rather than relinquish the Nyuni area as planned. Meanwhile neighbouring Orca continue with 3D seismic over Aminex prospect with their results due later this year helping to define Aminex position further on the license. Speculating that would put Orca in prime position for a farm in, but if significant finds are made, it may tempt ARA to come in on that license as well as Ruvuma.
Good luck DYOR