Member Info for Corryvreckan1

“So unless we can get rockets to Mars and dump it there, I don't have an answer to the incineration issue.”

Hmmm:
https://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/1988/09/28

I guess if we could dump things away from Earth then sending them sunward may be the best option.

I’ve long argued against the idea that nuclear power is bad because we can’t get rid of the radioactive waste it produces. We already have a suitable ‘neighbourhood’ incinerator– we just don’t, yet, have a safe way / enough incentive to get our waste there. We may need a tipping point at which necessity becomes the mother of invention. Or nuclear fusion to work for more than just boiling a kettle!

Sunday musings, with obvious flaws, please don’t birch me :/

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For anyone who enjoys Calvin and Hobbes the full Mars story arc starts on 12 September 1988 (go direct via dropdown calendar below the comic) and ends on 1 October, excluding the Sunday colour strips.

The “deal” was always likely to happen, it’s implicit in the German laws relating to the covid support, therefore the effects of it have long been baked into the SP, which is now rising in line with the broader sector / macro events, IMO.

What’s not known yet are the terms and timing of the associated Rights Issue. It could be any time from after the AGM on 14 Feb (plus time for subsequent admin/legal ratification) until the end of 2023.

Investors need to ask, if the restructuring doesn’t happen – by what method are TUI going to repay the covid support?

I’m confused by the title of this thread :/ From OP at 8.57am:
“the currency tailwind reported last time has reversed itself”

The last report I can see was the Q1 TU RNS on 12th Oct. They reported:
“exchange rate movements created a $17.1 million headwind…”; and:
“This headwind is likely to have an increasing impact on future reporting periods…”

That’s headwind reported last time, rather than tailwind.
What am I missing (apart from the usual marbles!)?

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aadj – I agree entirely with your last sentence. The FX at time of invoicing (which is what affects the revenue reporting) is also an entirely separate matter to the timing (and hedging) of any subsequent conversion of cash balances and needs careful management. DT took a $6.5m hit on FX last year!

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I may come back to the matter of a strong pound being good later, but for now worth noting that:

“the Group is primarily exposed to changes in USD/GBP and USD/EUR exchange rates” (note that’s the opposite to GBP/USD, currently 1.20 as mentioned earlier) because of “the conversion of British Pound and Euro-denominated ARR to US Dollar-denominated revenue”, not the other way round.

(Quotes from last year’s accounts)

“Except share prices generally slip after they've increased by the consolidation, but who knows, this time may be different.”

Agreed, often considered by the market as being done to hide something, like a cratered SP that is not attracting attention because investors (often rightly) assume there are major unreported issues, so immediately starts slipping again after the consolidation.

This time I would expect to be different, albeit with some short-term volatility immediately after the event. Smart money in the market already knows and understands why the restructure is required - it’s implicit in the German laws governing the support schemes – and the effects of the scheme have long been baked into the SP.

TUI have had similar issues to others and have come though it, future looking better, market commentary generally more positive around the sector now – onward I say (although the SP has still to break through the top of the downtrend channel that started in May 2020).

It's on open ken10, only shares held by close today qualify for Jan payment.

90+% of UK companies going ex-div do so at open on a Thursday.

Yup, also they only crossed just below the next threshold yesterday so could have been selling that volume down over a long time.

Key word is "consolidation" - they are consolidating every 10 shares held now into 1 share after. If it was the opposite it would be called a 'share split'.

It's a necessary and legally required part of their Balance Sheet restructure to allow them to repay the covid support. It was always likely to happen to facilitate that.

Apologies, wrong link, they would need to register with Computershare first before voting by the eproxy link:

https://www-uk.computershare.com/Investor/#Home?cc=uk

RobbieScowls - any shareholder can vote by posting the form downloaded from the Hurricane website, or electronically by registering with www.investorcentre.co.uk/eproxy , as referred to in the circular (page 5, last para).

"Proxy votes must be received by 10.00 am on 9 January 2023". That's Monday and there are no postal strikes currently scheduled so still time.

Online broker deadlines are kicking in around now so those that can vote that way need to be on it.

I would hope CA will be voting For the motion, due to this from the bottom of their RNS on 23rd Dec:

"Hurricane has announced its intention to return $70 million in Q1 2023. Crystal Amber is supportive of this capital return and would expect any new board of Hurricane to honour this commitment, in the absence of an offer that is declared wholly unconditional."

senseman - our posts crossed, I was replying to Klassic but then also relevant to your query.

I did and I am – yay, go me. ;o)

For any non-believers it’s on page 5 of the circular, under the heading Shareholder Approval.

+75% - per circular:

"The Resolution will be proposed as a special resolution and requires a majority in favour of at least 75%
of those Shareholders attending and voting in person or by proxy at the General Meeting in order to be passed."

The vote next week is not for a dividend, it's just the first step towards potential future dividends.

Any announcement of a dividend is a way off yet and the ex-dividend date that you would have to buy shares before will not be before February. It will be announced by RNS in advance if it happens.

Stay tuned...

Possibly, or we could also get an RNS on Monday stating that no bids were received that the BoD felt they could recommend to a shareholder vote, although that doesn’t preclude anyone coming in later with an ‘unsolicited’ offer.

We are then into GM vote for reduction of capital and potential dividends/share buyback in Feb/March – running in parallel with the process started by CA’s proposal and request for a GM.

Must remember to get some more popcorn in!

I agree entirely with your first point, although for “best wins” I would say the first one that the BoD considered offered fair value that could have been put to a shareholder vote.

On your second point, as they have now given a fixed deadline I think it would have to be sealed bids. They can’t announce an earlier bid as others would then know how much little more they could offer to beat it. Makes sense to wait until deadline as even if they get a decent bid early they would risk not getting a much better one later. I think this would be standard industry practice.

I’m not sure if they even need to announce all bids received then, or just the one they think offers best value that they could recommend to shareholders – any other views on declaring all bids?

No, looks like a fat finger entry, immediately changed to correct trade price 79.50.
Keep dreaming...

Wayzgoose, regarding your buy showing as a sell question earlier:

The stock market never reports the direction of a trade - whether you are buying or selling - it just reports it as ‘a trade’.

The Buy/Sell section on this site, and many others offering a similar service, is just running a simple algorithm to compare each trade price to the mid point of the reported spread at the time of the trade. If your broker got you a price below the mid point of the spread then LSE will display it as a ‘sell’, if above it displays as a ‘buy’, if bang in the middle or late reported then it's normally ‘unknown’. It's just a guess/indication that works some of the time but by its nature is of limited use.

Looking at the trade prices instead you can often work out where the ‘live’ spread in actual operation is.

Picsmaister - regarding that broker advice, it was discussed here on 22 Dec. It looks to me like the broker may have read the RNS and then possible made a whole load of (incorrect) assumptions. It doesn’t look to me as if they read the circular that the RNS refers to, which would have told them exactly what was going to happen. It is simply not possible for any dividend cash to be credited to your account on 1st Feb under the current GM resolution. I think they may have been using the wrong definition of ‘return of capital’.

Also, they have NOT even announced a Dividend yet. The return could be partly or all a share buyback, as stated in the circular. It may not even happen at all, the GM only gives the BoD the ability to pay future dividends by creating distributable reserves, it doesn’t mean they have to distribute them, again as stated in the circular.

Following link to ‘Capital Return’ thread where I dissected the broker note, start from winalot’s post at the bottom:
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=HUR&share=Hurricane-Energ&page=2&thread=38D99FDF-B079-475C-9751-ADA49E1C000B

All IMO of course but I think I gave enough factual evidence to support it.

I understand where your view on FSP date comes from Dickbat, in good spirit we agree to disagree.

Get the CIA involved - you may be onto something there.

In keeping with that thought, and with the season, one of my favourite Calvin & Hobbes cartoons:

https://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/1987/12/17

And as today is officially Festivus I shall wish everyone a very happy ‘Festivus for the rest of us’ and toast to your good health and wellbeing :)
Slàinte