RE: P&C25 Feb 2024 20:25
Rover,
I may have been very arrogant in delivering my damning verdict over the months but it is because I have seen it before.f Good resource, good mines, run by people that have one thing in mind "greed". You want to know what tipped me over over a year ago?
3 things in the order below:
1. Investors here focusing only on fundamentals, thinking that this is all that matters. They completely discounted the "greed" factor that comes in play from directors and big institutional investors. Never did I see one of the "preachers" here considering the downside. This created alarm bells for me. It was fertile ground for this thing to go wrong and in a big way.
2. Wasa - Yes wasa. This gambler was touting in the early days how he was pumping all his money in including house sales money , living in caravan etc etc. He had a huge following from the equally naive here, treating his endless calculations about NPV and pontifications about resource on the ground etc. etc. Everyone was reading his posts like Godspell and pumping more money in undoubtedly. This for me was a huge alarm bell.
3. Jeremy Martin - always smooth - always pretending he cared for the shareholders but never committing any of his funds in a serious way to buying even at crucial stage points. As you know I was screaming about this.
and some minor things:
4. At some point seeing the macro situation unfolding i.e. rising interest rates, people and governments putting the whole green folly agenda on a back burner and firing up coal stations I knew and I warned about this multiple times. No one in this economic backdrop cares about green credentials and overpriced EV's.
5. Lateness in securing financing deal. I remember clearly saying that these guys were late in securing the major financing package and they are behind the curve. Reason - I could see the bear market for mining unfolding . Incidentally we may be reaching the bottom now.
6. NOTHING WENT WRONG during construction - This just does not happen. All the mining cos I followed always had a bit of bad news RNS's during construction. When I saw the latest report about how close they were to completion and the fact that there was not a single point of bad news yet coupled with what I thought was a fairly stagnant share price, was my trigger to go short.
Most of it was based on psychology and a contra attitude. I do not concern myself with fundamentals when it comes to AIM. It is roulette. For me it is a quick in and out. Anyone that claims to be a successful AIM investor certainly will not be in these forums and will more than likely have access to information no one including me have even dreamt of.