The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/888-tsx/paas/130621-pan-american-and-agnico-eagle-deliver-definitive-binding-offer-to-acquire-yamana.html
Yamana bought out 23% premium.
Most I've seen is a 30-35% premium.
The challenge is, with the sp in the dumps, now is the worst time to be announcing something to the market.
No point trying to sell the company, will probably struggle to get more than 30-35p at present. Raising money at these prices would be horrendous. Looks like calibre doesn't want to toll mill.
Only positive is if Jim wants to finance the build and give condor a big massive loan of $100m. What are the actual chances of that?
https://anchor.fm/mining-stock-daily/episodes/Calibre-Minings-Ryan-King-Comments-on-the-Market-Reaction-following-New-US-Sanctions-in-Nicaragua-e1qd14r
Another detailed discussion from calibre regarding the sanctions.
Appreciate the post. What else did you see on your visit? Did you see where the land clearing was and has that progressed in any way, any earth work/digging done yet or just land clearing?
Q3 results and conference call. It's worth a listen. Just have to put some details in but you don't get any spam etc.
https://www.calibremining.com/investors/events/q2-2022-financial-results-and-conference-call-details-nov-2022/
Seingred, calibre have spent a bit of their cash recently so have about $66m cash at the end of Sept.
Equinox jumped 18% yesterday. They gave their Q3 results, AISC ridiculously high. 3x the value on calibre, around $500m debt and based in their AISC and current gold price, calibre is actually more profitable!
Don't get me wrong simms, that would probably be the best thing possible here, but I just can't see it happening.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/comments-on-nicaraguan-sanctions-from-tim-coughlin/id1418050443?i=1000584008508
Tim, CEO of Royal Road who are exploring in Nicaragua spoke on a podcast. His line is pretty rubbish but worth a listen. He mentions at the end about the EUs view on it.
https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-receives-environmental-approval-for-develo-4796/
Permit approved for their Eastern borosi project and mention of a 2 year contract for clean energy with CEPAM. I remember Mark talking about clean energy a while back as well.
Just been put on sedar.
https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-comments-on-operations-in-nicaragua-4790/
Calibre down 20% since this was released. Hopefully just an over reaction.
Anyone hazard a guess at Jim's average here? Pure guess but considering he has been here for a long time, I'd imagine it's around 40p. There is no way he will let this go for cheap.
Simms, only concern is that Jim would probably prefer shares in the company rather than the interest on a big loan. The debt/equity split is still the elephant in the room.
First majestic took around $3m at 50p for part payment of their sag mill. Worth remembering that.
Finance takes time. For example, GGP had been in discussions since the start of the year and just noticed funding. From looking at other companies, 6 months appears to be an average to organise and finalise a financing package.
Is anyone in here registered for the webinar this pm? Would be good to hear any feedback. I'm at work so won't be able to listen in.
Lots of chat around what would would be fair value/share price once in production. Obviously lots of variables still which we are unable to speculate on (i.e. number of shares in issue/gold price at time of production etc). However, let's go off the situation at present and use Mako and Calibre's market cap at present as a reference as they are both within country and producing.
Mako have a market cap of £87m. They produced 36,000oz in the last 12 months are $1000 AISC. Currently 500tpd but aiming to double to 1000tpd in 2023 which should double production given their high grade stays the same. They have about $7m USD in debt left to pay. They have a smaller overall resource but really high grade.
Calibre have a market cap of £287m. They aim to produce 200,000oz this year (should have been 220-235koz but issue with repairing the mill) with AISC $1250. They have their nevada asset and have a very aggressive drill program and much larger land package across Nic. They have $92m in cash and no debt. They are aiming 250-275k in 2023 and 275-300k in 2024.
Taking Calibre's numbers, at $1700 gold, they are making $90m (200oz x $1700 - AISC $1250). At this price, condor will make $70m. We are making 0.77 OCF (70/90). 0.77 of their market cap is £220m. Now, there are lot of variables here, calibre will have a much higher OCF as their oz increase in 2023 and 2024. They have $92m in cash and no debt. If we take the cash off which equates to £80m, what gives £140m. We would have $60-70m debt to repay plus any potential gold streams which will top slice the companies profits. We have 158m in issue, if you add all the warrants and stock options, that takes us to 196m. With no extra shares placed, that gives us 71p per share. If you add lets say 50m shares, that would take us to 57p.
Lots of upside though. For example, calibre were as high as $1.80CAD this year, currently $1CAD. Their market cap at this years high when gold was around $2000oz was around £500m. 0.77 x £500m gives £385m. Minus their cash on hand gives condor a rough market cap of £300m. So now, if we had 250m shares in issue, our share price would equate to £1.20.
Finally, calibre are very undervalued compared to their peers.
You could say we should be double the value of Mako, given they are only producing 36000oz and similar AISC. That would give a market cap of £174m. We would have more debt to repay. Lets say 250m shares (equity, current number of shares, options and warrants), the sp would be around 70p.
Lots to ponder, lots to unpick. Simple valuations here, lots of variables. Appreciate other people's thoughts and reasoned valuations.
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/397-tsx/ivn/128010-ivanplats-receives-final-225-million-prepayment-under-platreef-streaming-agreements.html
They require around $480m for phase 1 of their project. They have managed to secure $300m in streaming and they have signed a note for $150m for senior debt facility.
Rio2 also managed to agree on a 85/15 split without having the environmental permits and unfortunately for them their environmental permit was rejected.