Member Info for colebrooke1972

HFI Research who have been consistently near the mark on predicting EIA figures have the following for last week:

For the week ending Oct 25th, we have a draw of 5.17 mbbls including 1.23 mbbls of SPR release (ex-SPR, draw of 6.4 mbbls).

This is compared to the 5-year average of +4.128 mbbls.

Oil should keep going with a sustained rise pulling up ENQ EBITDA and free cash flow with it...

Cairn will probably now be in a hurry to revise their interpretation of Kraken reserves back upwards!

Several oilers down today Cairn back in the 180’s down 2.5% and Hurricane down 2.8% whilst poo over $61 seems odd... that’s the market for you!

Is AB insane?

Discuss

Auson that is bizarre!

Tullow and Hurricane also down bizarre

Cairn down 3%

Eni’s Block 15/06 off Angola.

“The stock trades at an undeserved FY20F PE of 7x currently against a backdrop of a sustainable earnings recovery and improving balance sheet risks.”

https://www.theborneopost.com/2019/10/24/bumi-armada-top-active-after-enquest-problem/amp/

Bumi Armada top active after EnQuest problem | Borneo Post Online

By Ronnie Teo October 24, 2019

EnQuest’s 115 workers were transferred from the Thistle platform to the nearby Dunlin installation and has announced that the platform will remain shut down pending the conclusion of further inspection and any necessary remedial action.

KUCHING: Bumi Armada Bhd (Bumi Armada) remained the top most active stock on Bursa Malaysia yesterday following news of independent UK-based exploration and production operator EnQuest has “proactively down-manned” its Thistle platform on Monday in a precautionary move after a preliminary subsea structural inspection related to a support element on a redundant subsea storage tank.

The stock reached a price of 44.5 sen with 296.6 million number of shares traded at closing yesterday.

To recap, Bumi Armada was awarded a US$1 billion floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel charter in 2012 by Enquest for the Kraken field located in the East Shetland basin, 400km north-east of Aberdeen.

The FPSO is a converted Suezmax tanker with a daily production capacity of 80,000 barrels and storage capacity of over 600,000 barrels.

“While first oil for the Armada Kraken FPSO was achieved on 23 June 2017, the vessel has not been able to secure its full contracted charter rate given technical issues which resulted in sub-optimal production levels.

“Currently, management is unable to provide clarity on Armada Kraken fully achieving Enquest’s contracted production targets. As the incident at the Thistle platform is not related to the Kraken field and management views that the worst is over for Armada Kraken’s operational performance, we view the sell-down on Bumi Armada’s shares as overblown,” opined AmInvestment Bank Bhd (AmInvestment Bank) on the matter.

EnQuest’s 115 workers were transferred from the Thistle platform to the nearby Dunlin installation and has announced that the platform will remain shut down pending the conclusion of further inspection and any necessary remedial action.

EnQuest, currently with a market cap of 296 million pounds (RM1.6 billion) and producing 68,548 barrels per day in the first halfo of 2019, is expected to generate earnings of US$159 million in FY19F and US$166 million in FY20F which is more than twice that of Bumi Armada.

It has interests in multiple oil fields located in the North Sea comprising West Don, Don Southwest, Broom, Heather, Thistle, Deveron, Magnus, Greater Kittiwake Area and Kraken.

It also operates the onshore Sullom Voe Oil Terminal, Ninian crude oil pipeline system and Northern Leg gas pipeline.

“Nevertheless, given the group’s still higher gearing, we expect further announcements to monetise the group’s offshore support vessels, given its low overall utilisation rate of only 50 per cent, idle construction vessels and up to 40 per cent stake in the fully operational US$1.5bil Armada Olombendo, deployed at Eni’s Block 15/06 off Angol

MaverickD absolutely correct missed that one.

Technical gap in the chart from the 20th March @ 17.64p now closed.

Solid foundations for upward move IMHO

Crude draw and product draw.

Crude: -1.7M bbl
Gas: -3.1M bbl
Dist: -2.7M bbl
Crude Imp: 5.86M bpd -6.96%
Crude Exp: 3.68M bpd +13.39%
Cushing: +1.5M bbl +3.49%

EIA day. Amateurs will only look at the headline number. Pros look at the total picture which will most likely show a crude build and a product draw. Refinery maintenance winding down in the next week. Watch product demand numbers.

I imagine the CEO will once again be buying at these levels.

Less than one month until capital markets day!

Bring it on

Great find Pelle and good summary here:

EnQuest, which produced 68,548 barrels per day in 1H2019, is expected to generate earnings of US$159mil in FY19F and US$166mil in FY20F, over 2x vs. Bumi Armada. It has interests in multiple oil fields located in the North Sea comprising West Don, Don Southwest, Broom, Heather, Thistle, Deveron, Magnus, Greater Kittiwake Area and Kraken. It also operates the onshore Sullom Voe Oil Terminal, Ninian crude oil pipeline system and Northern Leg gas pipeline.

Marley cap below £300 million is a pure disconnect

EnQuests market cap is now the same as its free cash flow.

Simply undervalued.

(Reuters) - North Sea focused oil firm EnQuest more than doubled its free cash flow to $138 million in the first half, boosted by bigger production, it said on Thursday, reiterating its output guidance of between 63,000 and 70,000 barrels per day this year.

The group, which had a market cap of around $380 million on Wednesday, is planning to drill two wells in the Western Flank area of its Kraken field in 2020, where it sees a reservoir of around 100 million barrels.

Credit to Sludgesurfer

The Export route was via Dunlin until June. Now NP and Thistle production goes to Magnus. This from the May ops update:

The Dunlin bypass project is progressing as planned with the first phase of the sub-sea construction works, including the new pipeline and structure installation, being completed on schedule. Modifications on the Thistle, Northern Producer and Magnus facilities are also progressing in readiness for the final sub-sea tie-in phase. The new export route is planned to be operational during the summer.

Their 1H report confirmed it became operational in June

So health and safety key nowadays. I read that a rig worker mentioned if this had happened a couple of years back with one of the majors they would have put braces and cement on the thing and kept the rig working. Credit to EnQuest.