Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Silver Knight, I'd broadly agree with your options which all seem to assume a full sale. I'd add another, which in my view would be perhaps the most likely or what the company would prefer. A sale / partnering / outlisencing of one of the assets could occur where the company agrees to cash / royalties for the trade. This could allow Midatech to survive and continue development of other assets. If this were to happen I would assume sale of MTD201 and continuation of MTX110. I'd assume a SP rise for this scenario but not in the same magnitude as an all out sale. Due to the low overall volume of this share it is very easy for it to spike on absolutely no news which we have seen before a few times. I too am very interested in seeing this SP rise but will not invest any further to average down as have been stung so many times before....
This is a massive missed opportunity. Never have I seen a company managed with this depth of incompetence. They had a better than average chance of getting a marketed drug but dropped the ball financially. The scientific data was looking good, which is the most frustrating part of this shambles. No failed trials or problems with the tech. Lesson for me from this is to remember the f**kwits involved in this company and not invest in anything they touch again. This includes the supposedly well respected members of the board. At best this smacks of a compete loss of oversight. I would guess the value of the tech is at around £10-20M but who knows in this financial maelstrom we are in at the moment. Any other thoughts on value?
Oh dear. This is not Mtph specific but they weren't exactly in the position to weather the storm. They might still get the trial off of the ground. Many clinical sites are still open (for now). A 5M mkt cap seems 50 fold off what it could be in the future, even in double figures of multiples with dilution. The Coronavirus provides an opportunity but I'm sure as hell not putting any more money into this until the raise happens. Hold on folks it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
Not too disastrous so far for the 1st day's trading at the revised price/vol. There are PI's that will not have known this was coming and may have panicked and bailed. Let's see where we are same time next week, I think then we can start drawing some conclusions on the impact.
I hear you George. My position isn't too dissimilar to yours. Keep those pom poms somewhere to hand, hopefully you can get them back out at some point. Good luck!
Ntm, this will all depend on the timing. Knee-jerk reactions like we are seeing across the markets can correct themselves pretty quickly. If it resolves before the raise then it might actually provide a cheap entry point. Maybe not. If it goes much lower then I might get tempted. I do have to get to grips with my gambling problem ;-)
I was working off of public info from Apr/May/Jun of 2019, once the fund raise was complete. The funding of the clinical development is probably (like they say) secure for 2020. As a company they declared they could cover funding up to around 2Q2020 as a maximum (from the June 2019 interim presentation). A raise was always on the cards as far as I could see this year whatever happened. If an NDA is going to be submitted this year and drug scale up funding additional to the trials is needed, the raised money was never going to be enough (even with the Spanish Govt. funding)? My estimate was the CMS raise and other funding was just over half of the overall money needed to get MTD201 to market alone. They have a bit more cash from the more recent raise but with the total cash burn needed for the company they will need another raise. Unfortunate and a symptom of previous poor management but I don't think there has been any financial mismanagement (as far as I can see) since they cleaned up shop. As a holder I would selfishly argue that further streamlining is needed in the company, for example I would prefer to initially have 1 PhIII trial for MTD201, to save some cash and reduce the need for future dilution before we get results. The NETs indication would be nice to have but a marketing approval would be better with other indications added afterwards. This company's existence depends on MTD201 so complete prioritisation is key. Happy to be corrected/challenged on this.
George- I share your frustration. You have had such a positive voice over the years but I understand everyone has their limits. It's difficult to see what Midatech can do at the moment. They are still paying for previous bad decisions. Having wasted so much time and money has put them in this precarious cash-strapped position. I too wish communication was better but going on a PR offensive now would burn cash I'd rather be spent on getting the damn trials finished. News of late seems to have been flowing in a timely manner. It's difficult to see what news could be released right now that will change anything substantially. My plan is to wait for PhIII read outs and pray that the SP holds in some way so when we do get good news it makes a difference!
Viveka, l'd say we are on the same page with this. I do hope a run is on the cards, you are welcome to join Rob and I if you like. The trials should start reading out later on in the year, I agree milder conditions would be more favourable for such an activity...
For what it's worth I can't see MTD201 failing the pivotal trail(s). It's an old drug reformulated. We know the pharmacology works and have done for years. We have recently seen that the pharmacokinetics are favourable from both SC and IM injections. We have positive data for both components that make a drug efficacious. I think the more pertinent question is "why wouldn't it work?" and I'm scraping the barrel to find a reason (and I can say this from a position of experience). There are always unpredictable and freak occurrences in studies so although we can't rule these out I'm not putting too much weight on them. Whether MTPH can hold the financials together or we see a spike but return to baseline on good news in the pivotal trial is outside of my knowledge. I'd suspect a positive pivotal study would provide a robust and sustained raise in the SP. I've been sitting here for >5 years and I've always believed in the tech and still do, that's why I'm still here. I'm both a long term holder and short term trader of this share (to regain losses). If the SP were to reach 15-25 p by the end of the year I probably run naked through the streets. If it does one might want to avoid North London around the time.
So although the last update was positive and meaningful as usual there was a sharp spike and return to (almost) pre-news baseline in the SP. Makes trading this share fun in the short term and has enabled me to recoup some large historical losses here. I'm wondering what the next value inflection point is going to be? Good times ahead methinks.
I agree with all you say Viveka. I've been invested here for the last 5 years, which has been somewhat testing so please forgive my perhaps overly negative tone. I think the pivotal studies will be positive given this isn't a new drug per se, we already know Sandosatin works and this reformulated version has a much higher chance of working in these trials than a new molecular entity. I've learnt to temper my enthusiasm over the years but I think we have finally turned a corner with this share.
I suppose it was a rhetorical question then :-) .....
Viveka, as far as I can see the second pivotal trial for the NET indication is currently unfunded. RNS 20 Sep 2019 says:
"Preparation for the next pivotal phase of clinical development for MTD201 in 2020 is also underway. Following confirmation of the MTD201 administration route from this Phase 1 study, the pivotal registration study in acromegaly patients is planned to commence early in 2020. ---Subject to funding---, a pivotal registration programme to support a second indication in NET is also expected to commence in 2020".
Unfortunately this makes another raise unavoidable in the near future (unless other funds are found). Personally I would have liked to see more progress with the 1st pivotal trial before we had to endure further dilution. One risk, although probably low, is that efficacy is not seen in patients in the pivotal trials. Up to now MTPH have been artificially modulating a biomarker in healthy volunteers that is raised in patients with acromegaly / NET. It makes sense (and is endorsed by the FDA) that this an appropriate method in the phase I PK/PD studies but they still need to prove this translates to the disease state. I can also see that if the NET study is positive this will add further potential value and any potential out-licencing or outright sale of MTD201 will be enhanced. Given the painful history with this company I can see why they are throwing the kitchen sink at getting this done, which is a positive.
This is great news today. It further demonstrates differentiation from Novartis' Sandostatin LAR and this will be more attractive to physicians and payors when it comes to market vs. the standard of care. I see this as value added and more importantly confirms for a second time that this technology works.
Seems like AIM is giving this share a bit of a rough ride. Relatively small trades having a large impact on SP. MTX110 news was positive but expected as the communication was only related to safety endpoints. The efficacy part of the clinical programme, if positive, should cause more of a shift in SP but this will always be limited because of the market size. It is really MTD201 that is the hinge on which this company will pivot. I'm confident this will come, just not for the short term. Any new deals in the mean time would be of great benefit.
I suspect you are right about the funding NicetoMichu. I'd definitley like to see an SP increase before any dilutive options are used. I was wondering if they might opt to utilise loan facilities than bash the existing shareholders (again).
I am trying to figure out what news that they can deliver this year that could raise the SP:
1) MTX110 (NCT03566199) will finish dose escalation (US) We will most likely get news that higher doses of MTX110 are tolerated from phase 1 safety study resulting in higher recommended phase 2 dose. This would bode well for planned efficacy study. We might also get positive data from secondary (efficacy) endpoint. The SP should move up a bit but this depends if we see any evidence of efficacy (even if this is only phase 1)
2) MTX102 (NCT02837094) This phase 1 safety study readout keeps being pushed back, now due H1 2019 so end of June. Not a pivotal trial but has secondary endpoints that may give insights into efficacy. The market is large for this indication (diabetes) but I've not really priced this into my value calculations. Any further pivotal studies would have to be fairly hefty, given the indication. This may be funded through EU grants (or maybe not, did someone say Brexit….?)
3) MTD201. Successful completion of the non-pivotal PK study. Now we have the previous PK from MTD201 this should be a formality. Not reading out til later this year but might provide a reasonable SP uplift. Positive pivotal results would carry more weight in 2020.
Aside from these and whatever comes out of leftfield, I don’t see much other news flow in 2019. What will shift the SP needle considerably are any new partnering announcements / licensing agreements etc.
This probably isn’t comprehensive so If you or anyone else wants to add to the potential news flow list please crack on.
[Disclaimer] These are just my personal thoughts, no one should make any investment decisions off of my ramblings…..
That was probably the right decision, it's good to have it confirmed, albeit late.
The only news to me was: "Subject to funding, a pivotal registration programme to support a second indication in NET is expected to commence in H1 2020".
Looks like they might go for more of the NET market than originally anticipated and it will need funding (non-dilutive hopefully) although no details as yet.
This doesn't really help the SP in the short term ...
Unless we get some evidence of progress PDQ I suspect we might be in for yet another year of promised positive news flow but delivery of abject disappointment. MTPH does seem to want to make the right scientific decisions (even though financial decision making has been catastrophic). To be fair they have had some curve balls thrown at them (positive MTD201 results that lead to more complexity / delay) but we need to see a change of impetus, not the repetition of past behaviours, to have any confidence.
Hi George-Inn, thanks for the commentary on CMS, I'd broadly agree with your analysis, particularly around the Chinese approval process and CMS. I'm scratching my head a little as to the identity of the 'major regional partner' evaluating the Q-Sphera technology....Have you dug up any clues yet? We can rule out global big pharma, are you assuming UK based with regional reach?