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Oleric you are such a worrier, and so are the silent people recommending your post. Ashman said he ‘hoped’, and ‘if’ he could get the lawyers to move their pens fast enough.

Working with lawyers is like trying to solve a riddle over the phone, where the person on one end only speaks Spanish and the other only speaks Chinese. They both think they are superior and the other is an idiot, and they never feel as though the ball is in their court. Worst thing for SA is he was probably following their advice before he spoke about the last year completion. Lesson learnt.

The share price movement/level is based on the lack of clarification, it is not a detractor to what we have been told that transformational events will take place.

Of course Mr Ashman is losing credibility by the week. I’m very sure he knows that. It doesn’t mean he will say what nervous investors want him to say on demand. He does have a little something called reality to contend with. Rome wasn’t built in a day.

I intend to write to him at the end of the month if we haven’t heard anything to ask him not to be so contemptuous towards smaller shareholders and to say he really has had ample opportunity to address the missed statement along with others. The fact he has not done that up to this point suggests to me he is hoping not to have to, I.e he is hoping for news in a very short timeframe.

Likewise, sorry Thomas, I do enjoy your posts and resisted it on Wednesday night because it was you, but the additional 19% last night and I couldn’t resist!

Farris, I can see that it’s a concern. Coincidentally, in my day job, I am currently involved in the acquisition of a company from a supplier of ours, buying our way up into the next link in the chain. The transaction value is 1.4m so I imagine fairly similar to this one. Everyone including both sets of lawyers were going all guns blazing to get it done by Christmas, and everyone was confident. When it didn’t go through, I assumed it would be the first few days of January. Today it seems further away that it did on the 22nd December. The lawyers consistently bringing up new issues with a relaxed breeziness, with no shame that they have been paid a fortune in hours last year, not to have noticed these issues previously. The lending bank, even worse.

I feel for Ashman on this. They have one priority and that is themselves, not the people paying their fees and interest rates - they know it can’t be done without them.

It’s not the first one I have done, and one thing I can say is the second it goes through, all that stress and angst dies away immediately, everyone is relieved and friendly with each other despite what was said to each other in the days before. The RNS will come unless we get one saying otherwise. All being well, one or two good moves and nobody will remember they ever questioned Ashman.

I hate to be so pedantic TC, but on Monday you wrote “While Ashman ponders the universe check OBD and see how a real company is run.”

On Wednesday OBD lost 25% of its value and today another 19%. Both days featuring on LSE’s daily ‘5 worst performing companies’ table. SBTX has featured on the ‘5 best performing companies’ 3 times, whilst never being on the worst list.

We will make it on the best list once again when we get that Croda drop, with the commercial launch date. The jury is still out on if Ashman can achieve a single tangible and RNS worthy thing in the meantime, but any one of his ‘pregnant pipeline’ items could produce a similar market response. SBTX can go up quickly when it goes, I believe because there is a lot of smart money watching the company. Smarter money than I, I wish I would have just been watching it for the last few years instead of with so much skin in the game! GLA LTH. Another week nearly gone, another week closer.

You’re right Toyin, but my gosh he could be making it so much easier for us right now to support him!

The deal with Croda is well and truly signed. As much as us investors become frustrated with the slow albeit upcoming progression in other areas of the business, we cannot deny that the Croda deal alone is enough to justify our investments. The rest of the company has detracted from the share price Croda alone could produce for us because of the poor management of sentiment.

And please note how I say that. Nobody can accuse SA of poor management, yet. However the SP is definitely suffering due to poor handling of market sentiment around other areas of the business. This is in the control of our management and the quicker it is straightened out and resolved the better through a full and thorough investor meets presentation, RNS or whatever other of the many available outlets are allowed.

PGlancy, I fear you may be being slightly harsh with your comment about bringing Cath back; however I must admit last night my thoughts were - Is what Elric doing illegal or has SA allowed himself to be walked all over? Because it is one or the other. I’m not all that bothered if he has conceded something to a NOMAD for an easy life, especially when he is so busy, but it does beg the question about if he is capable of putting his foot down and dictating a motion, given that every current matter seems to be slipping.

Elrico. Do I understand the article correctly, there will be no more podcasts or zoomcasts full stop? Kind Regards.

Surprise flurry of buys today, but been a long time coming. Yesterday the only trades were two buys, and one of those was me. Think it’s the only tranche I’ve bought in two years that’s in profit!! That said, I’m not worried, I feel those shares will be soon to realise their hidden value.

I think realistically the news will be spread across the quarter rather than the month. 1.) Acquisitions news, possibly plural. 2.) Acne trial. 3.) Croda information, maybe not sales but anything to tell us what the additional claims are or finally a launch timescale. 4.) Whatever Stuart was alluding to that ‘nobody will see coming.’ Could this be a deal which requires access to the Croda produced Lysate?

Those points should be achievable based on comments from the CEO or RNS, and would dramatically accelerate the share price, which is what I think SA meant when he said the line about moving at a pace most won’t believe.

Hopefully some excellent work coming from Stuart Ashman first and foremost to help kick off that positivity us LTH and now craving TC. Good luck to all for the year ahead.

Seems the situation has been successfully neutralised by the RNS this morning.

Right you are Aquae. “It’s a small company that’s been around for a long time.” “By the 31st December I will have that deal done.”

For some reason that latest interview didn’t show up in my search of my emails. I’ll listen to it fully tonight.

Sorry Stuart, I tried, good luck for tomorrow! The flurry of buys towards the end of the day and the large 100,000 share buy this morning could indicate there may be an RNS tomorrow, but I’m possibly clutching at straws. Those shares will be cheap tomorrow if there isn’t an announcement at 7am!

Aquae, which interview do you refer to, as in the interview posted on 22/10/2023, Stuart Ashman does not state one acquisition by the end of the year. He does speak of the end of the year, but does not say there will be an acquisition, just, hopefully, if the lawyers hurry up, hopefully a transformational announcement by year end. In the context as transcripted in my earlier posts, it seems it’s not M&A related.

If it’s a different interview or you care to post a time and I am wrong I will hold my hands up.

Hi Bazzaman,

Some really fair pieces of information there which help us to understand why the market is expecting what it is expecting. However, I do question if Elric understood what was said in the same way we all did at the time, or if it’s been explicitly said to him? Only he can answer that when he sees our chat.

Re the placing RNS, no timescales are mentioned for the acquisitions apart from to say the M&A programme should take 18 months. It then finishes with “ No final terms have been agreed and there is no certainty that terms will be agreed and funding provided on suitable terms, or at all, to implement the strategy.”

So at the minute I’m still minded to my original point that SA hasn’t promised an acquisition by Christmas, unless Elrico can confirm his writing on 15th November was based on something Stuart had explicitly said rather than his own interpretation, bearing in mind over three weeks had passed since the interview.

3.

Listen to the rest of the interview and take only what Stuart says rather than implies. There is a lot going on here and we can’t push Stuart off the plank into the deep blue sea until the end of Q1 when he has had chance to do what he says he will do... I think we may get an acquisition, but that’s only a maybe. We won’t get a multinational deal. The Acne is described as ‘imminent’ so that should make up a part of the ‘pregnant pipeline’ and the promised upcoming news flow. But if it’s not a multinational deal and only maybe an acquisition, he is said it’s not the inflammation study. What else is there - I suggest we let him get on with his job for a bit longer as there is clearly something else he has in mind and he has given himself a measurable timescale, the end of Q1.

Another mince pie anyone?

2.

Around 10 minutes in to the second interview: “what I will say to investors is this company will be unrecognisable from where we are now by the end of Q1 next year, in fact, hopefully, if I can get lawyers to move their pens fast enough, hopefully by Christmas there will be some TRANSFORMATIONAL ANNOUNCEMENTS that people will say: we’ll I didn’t see that coming.”

Elric points out that SA is laying himself a land mine and points out he is unlikely to be able to give any details, but asks what kind of strategy is before us which is transformational, and asks is it M&A activity? Elric also asks what’s happening with the Oral care as investors expected to hear in the summer. Then goes back to saying “what is going to be so TRANSFORMATIONAL?”

Stuart says: “I have to be careful what I say here, as you know we have multiple irons in the fire, multiple projects ongoing, one of which is the oral programme, we have an inflammation programme but that’s a little further out, WE ARE IN NEGOTIATIONS ON MEDIBIOTIX AND CLEANBIOTIX SO EITHER ONE OF THOSE IS TRANSFORMATIONAL TO US.”

Stuart the goes on to talk about M&A: “We did speak about an acquisition a little while ago, we will never charge into these things… most of the legwork we do internally at the pace we [can]… there are accretive opportunities out there, we did talk about one before, that is still very live, we will deliver that when the time is right.”

Does that sound like a man that’s promising an acquisition before Christmas? To me what he is saying is in line the the RNS’s copied above.

He goes on: “I cant comment on what it is that will change the game as that would be material and price sensitive, and I’ll get a slap on the knuckles yet again from the nomad, so what I will say is that I can assure you that this time at the end of Q1 next year this company will be categorically unrecognisable from where we are now. If I’ve got my way, and I can put my foot even further up the backside of the lawyers, this will be done by Christmas, or certainly the start of it will and hopefully the lightbulb will come on with a lot of our very patient and very loyal long-standing investors will say yes we see what’s happening now.”

What I take from Stuart’s actual words, put in the right order as part of a long conversation, is absolutely not that there was going to be an acquisition announced by Christmas or even by the end of the year. They are discussing companies with potential sellers, but we are not helping negotiations here trying to force the boards hand. Stuart Ashman has not promised an acquisition by Christmas, but the market seems to think he has, so my gosh are the shares going to be cheap come 2nd January.

1.

Bazzaman,

Do you have a source for SA saying acquisition by year end a certainty? I’ve attempted to find it in recent RNS’s and Small Company Champion content to no avail. However I am interested to be corrected if so.

The RNS’s read ; “The Company continues to actively monitor potential accretive M&A targets and has been encouraged by its initial engagement with a number of potential targets. The Board hopes to be able to complete at least one accretive transformational acquisition in the near term.” and “ Management continuing to investigate potential accretive inorganic opportunities that provide synergies and accelerated routes to market; update on progress expected in the near term”.

Coincidentally, yesterday evening I re-listened to SA’s last interview with Elric. The reason I am interested in being corrected on the acquisition by Christmas if you are able to do so, is that I think there is a distinct possibility you are barking up the wrong tree, making Stuart walk the plank over something which he hasn’t said. The reason it may not have been crystal clear to us at the time is down to NOMAD and what SA can and can not say.

Let’s go back to the Small Company Champion interview from 22/10/2023. I hope Elric doesn’t mind my dictation of extract to provide a new perspective in order to see what you guys think.

Https://www.unilever.com/news/press-and-media/press-releases/2023/unilever-to-acquire-premium-haircare-brand-k18/

Unilever acquiring a biotech hair care brand because it synergises with their move into higher growth areas. I feel this has some similarities to Croda’s strategy, moving into natural bio technologies in the personal care space because they have identified it as high growth. Quite a vote of confidence from a couple of multi billion dollar PLC’s.

Bel, I’d agree that real life, tangible performance has been unexpectedly and surprisingly poor to date. However I do think it’s irresponsible of you as an experienced investor to use scaremongering to encourage those patient enough to have held that it’s in their best interest to sell when Stuart Ashman has put such a short timescale on his transformation. Those with patience will know very soon if SA is going to produce the goods or not.

I do think it’s a good time to buy given we have had RNS’d confirmation including comments from Dr. Damien Kelly of Croda that the product is a good one and the launch is coming during 2024. I totally agree with Toyin that this could be 100p on that alone. We won’t have another Axis launch on our hands with that one, Croda’s ongoing expenditure illustrates their confidence.

I think that answers your question Aquae, of why aren’t they buying. I, similar to you, topped up in the late teens with over 40k shares on top of what is also my largest holding. I would have loved to have been buying now instead of then but we weren’t to know. I for one though are not surprised we are in a bit of a share buying vacuum at the moment. To be blunt, I think investors are waiting to see if SA is going to back up his enthusiastic mouth. I get what you are saying and I do agree, but people are not buying and it is what it is.