Member Info for Chrisking

Yes it went up in 2007 but that was a commodities bubble, and hardly sustainable. I agree the execution of this has been terrible. Shocking management. The real question is whether they will be able to get through the next year without going under...... Looking at the last 10 years I would say 2000$/tonne seems a more reliable figure, but they really ought to have factored in crash scenarios.

It does seem that they have only been converting only around 10k tonnes on most months though, so if they go at it full pelt (17k), they will be adding anther 70% to the amount they process. That could make a huge difference.

Wow. This really is a lame business model. So basically to break even the zinc price would have had to have been at a level which has pretty much never been achieved in the history of zinc prices..... Hmm..

Yes I think they need to cut their costs a bit. It's great all this investment if you can afford it.

You seem like a bright chap! From your reading of the financials, what will the zinc price need to be for them to break even? Any chance of doing a quick guesstimate calculation?

Hope we have hit the bottom....

O.K. So I just got it confirmed by Zincox. They are still getting EAFD from Korea, 152k tonnes this year, and will still be getting around that for years to come. The import is only to make up the shortfall to 200k. Lets hope Zinc goes back up soon!!

Yes fella I just find this company so weird. They made 22 million in revenue in 6 months but only 800k profit from that, which then turned into a 6 million loss after loans!! I just don't get the economic model of this? But what I really don't get is why somebody somewhere just bought 4.4million quid worth of shares in this company without checking this out!! It's all so weird!! Anyway, all we can do now is wait and see if the Zinc price recovers by the end of October. It has been rising for the last couple of days, so hopefully things will improve.

House broker finnCap said while its forecasts remained under review, revenue and profitability now appeared less volatile and therefore more predictable. "Interim results illustrate a significant turnaround in operational availability and profitability at the plant level. It has also announced a new agreement to gain EAFD from non-Korean sources, overcoming recent supply restrictions. The management has also rescheduled debt to give breathing space," analyst David Buxton said in a note.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/111275/update-first-half-sees-turnaround-at-zincoxs-korean-plant-111275.html

Fairly sure they are getting market price. I read that in one of the RNS's They are getting 152k EAFD from Korean mills and importing 48k. God I hope they can make this work.....

You reckon they'll go under then? What would the Zinc price have to be for them not to?

Zincox seem to think the Zinc price is only shortlived. They are going to shut in October anyway. Wonder if it will be back up any time soon...... gulp......

Just had this back from their office: 'Full capacity at KRP is to process 200,000 tonnes of EAFD per annum. The 48,000 tonnes of imports we are making , when added to the domestic supply we are already receiving from the Korean steel mills will make the total up to 200,000 tonnes per annum of EAFD received at KRP.' So looks like the EAFD won't be a problem.....

Have to say I'm getting very worried about this. I notice AW is getting $400k a year in salary - more than they made in EBITDA - but as I said, why are people still putting money into it? I just don't get it. I'm starting to think this is going to be a very very bad mistake on my part. I bought in big, based on the fact that so many big names, the world bank etc seemed to think it was an O.K. business. Bad. Very bad.....

What I don't get is why all these Institutional shareholders have put the 3 million in to Zincox for the research for the new plant if the existing one is running at a 6 million a year loss? Just doesn't make sense!! What do they know that we don't?

So they are basically running at a 6million a year loss?. Jesus. Maybe the new plants they want to build are just a way of throwing good money after bad.....

Also, where are they gonna get the 152k of EAFD from? I just emailed AW to find out.

Sorry for being thick, but as a bottom line then, what does that mean they will have to make in EBITDA to break even? Is the Forex loss a one off? and the 3.3 million Depreciation and amortisation is already funded right? So does that mean they need an EBITDA of just 2.6million to be solvent? Can someone explain the figures to an idiot like me? Are they making money or not?

'the supply of EAFD in Korea is a fcuk up'. Yes it is. You would have to be very stupid to invest in a new Thai or Vietnamese plant with Mr Woollets at the helm. 'Fcuk up' is putting it mildly..... I'm now down 50%. I put in quite a bit thinking this looked like a dead cert. Big mistake.... gulp.....