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I think you’re right on 1 and 2. Not so sure about 3 and 4. For 3, There are plenty of other aim shares that are being traded up way beyond fair value so why can’t we even be traded up to fair value. For 4, if you discount the millions that TB has sold since Christmas there has actually been very little selling volume, additionally other TR1s have either held or bought more. So for me it’s 1 and 2. But mainly 2 because I don’t think the debt is much of an issue. The level of debt compared to eps is not high and debt is being reduced even with new plant being bought.
Apology accepted, thank you. Now let’s all move on. We all want this to go up and need to identify what it is that is holding the sp at unrealistically low levels.
No apology necessary. Just learn and move on
Ok I’ve now found the original post on aerofrom tradedesk last night. I quote: . Right I can confirm Trevor was added to a MRS twitter group recently where he stated his reason for reducing his position and it categorically related to him not being comfortable with the composition of the Board. He had paid upto 10p. Trevor has a track record second to none and if it wasn't for him and Nigel there would be no MRS as he brought it back from delisting. Whilst i wish all MRS shareholders well it reflects badly on the few who would now start knocking him & his other companies after singing his praises for saving and turning the company around. Also NB has joined him here at AERO and he remains on the MRS board. The thing is Trevor is straight talking and it was possibly a mistake to add him to a twitter group where he would tell it warts and all. The following is from Smudgedan, a notifiable holder of MRS who also holds AERO, he fed back to the MRS group after a conversation with Trevor. "TB is a good guy. I spoke to him for about 30 minutes yesterday. He had his plans for MRS but they were not compatible with those of Zorbas and by default Jones. TB has sold down now that he no longer has control (understandable and consistent with previous departures AVO, FDBK etc). I dont think he will sell more at this level and could well hold what he has left for much further down the line, equally he may punt a few more out in the 8p range. I just dont know. Its a shame but shouldnt detract from the fantastic job the board did as a collective when thrown together 8 months ago not knowing each other from Adam. To be clear all parties believe the business is undervalued by multiples, they just have different views on how to get to where the company should be."
Gige. Try ART123 post on aero at 7.48 this morning. Just as an example....
Well gige my post was actually from yesterday. Clearly there are a lot of posts there that you have missed. Not important.
Gige, if you were following the chat on aero this morning you will know that there were plenty of references to TB relating to his interest here from a variety of posters. Quite a few seem to have disappeared. I didn’t say that smudgedan had posted on aero, I said that it had been said in a post (from another poster) that smudgedan had had a long conversation with TB over the weekend.
Well of course but to be fair pretty much everything on LSE or Twitter is heresay. And smudgedan is a reliable source of information
It was posted over on AERO this morning that smudgedan had a conversation with TB on which he indicated that he would probably sell more. Strangely that post has since been deleted...
Trevor Brown has said that he will probably sell the rest of his shares and I think he still has a load of warrants which presumably he plans to exercise and sell. This is a major problem for the sp. the sooner he sells and gets out completely the better. His presence here is somewhat toxic and is stopping us from seeing true value
Anyone who bought in here because TB did and he has a reputation for doing 500% min (like I did) needs to watch carefully what he is doing over at MRS. Only on the Board there for 8 months during which time he took hefty fees, bought a load of shares on the cheap and awarded himself a shed load of cheap warrants. Now he’s already gone and he’s selling out for max 50% profit, probably less. He’s already well in profit here at the current sp so could easily be thinking short term exit with a quick buck. Seriously considering unloading mine whilst they are showing reasonable profit of about 40% in 6 weeks.
Not quite the golden boy we thought he was. On the board for 6 months. Takes a load of cheap warrants. Leaves and sells up for a quick 50% turn. Hope all those who followed him into AERO are taking note of this. I hope he sells the rest soon and good riddance to him. Once he's gone then we can find true value.
Sonic, non problem at all and I think our numbers look very similar.
Sonic, with reducing cost of servicing debt and the increasing turnover that is projected for next year I am working on a FY 2018/19 eps range of 3 to 3.5p giving a profit range of 5.4m to 6.3m. What that doesn't factor in yet is future capital expenditure to fund the growth and also there will be an impact from the warrants when they are exercised, positive from the point of view of cash balances to the tune of about 1m but will of course increase the share numbers to about 200m. Interims in Feb will help us to fine tune these projections.
Square, I think we are just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. It seems to me to be plain enough. We have full year guidance of eps of 2p. There are 180m shares. That is 3.6m profit. To break it down into halves: H1 eps of .8p x 180m is 1.44m. So that implies H2 eps of 1.2p x 180m is 2.16m. I'll leave it at that and let others decide.
Last week: From the trading update on 20 December: For FY18, first half expectations are for Profit after Tax and earnings per share to exceed $2.2m and 0.8p respectively, whilst for the full year earnings per share of not less than 2.0p are in prospect. Further progress is anticipated in 2018-19as debt continues to be repaid from the strong operational cash-flow generated by the major changes which are now taking effect. Full year eps of not less than 2p. So let's conservatively say 2.2p. With 0.8p in the first half that means that eps in the second half will be at least 1.4p or an annualised rate of 2.8p. Further progress for next year should mean eps for 2018/19 of 3.0 to 3.5p. Conservative estimates that don't take into consideration future growth with both sections of the business booming. On a forward eps of 3.5p that puts us on a p/e of 2... Dyor but if that isn't a screaming buy I don't know what is.
Sonic, calm down mate. I believe that square is underestimating the current year profit. Please take a moment to check the maths before hitting the keyboard.
Square, I'm not looking to pick an argument with you but we have guidance from the board of eps for the current year of at least 2p. There are 180m shares. 180m x 2p is 3.6m. What was your calculation for the full year profit?
2p eps with 180m shares is surely a profit of 3.6m.
And let's not forget the debt figure is in Australian dollars the eps is in pounds. 12m aud of debt is about 7m gbp, compared to 2p eps, which equates to about 4m gbp. That is the context of the debt. Increasing investment to increase profit is very positive. Reducing debt from profits is also very positive.