Member Info for Chandley-1976

Oil prices are a massive part of what’s causing a recession though.

We should be largely shielded as regardless of how much money people have to spend, anything they spend will involve energy consumption.

As you say let’s see how markets react to a record quarter results, added to those £600m in monthly buy backs.

It’s a total mystery. Chevron are down the over 20% in a couple of weeks. XOM are slightly less as per us. The only difference is that we are the only major who never bounced back to pre pandemic levels before the recent spurt.

It’s been a brutal fall considering that crude is still $110!

At least we get some cheap shares tomorrow when the dividend is paid. Looking at the DOW, we could open at 370. Stupid.

A full quarter of crude at well over $100, with a lot longer likely, and we sit here.

Of course they are. Same farmers, same everything. Only its not Coke anymore, its Ruscoke etc etc.

Sure, they are also suffering with 10% inflation too, but the sanctions have hardly wrecked the country and its largely just been the oligarchs who've taken billions in backhanders via jobs for the boys over the years.

The sanctions and large corporate pulls outs were largely political, and have in many ways handed a fortune to Russian operators, much like us. 20 billion wrote off, and handed right over to Putins mates for free. Mindblowing. And we all assumed that we'd sell it to Sinopec on the cheap.

Sure, the west is king when it comes to the ruling the world, but lets not arrogantly pretend that China, India and Russia are a bunch of inempts, as much as they are broadly a pack of 2nd world countries. Their vast natural resources, slack ethics and human rights etc, along with massive populations and dictatorial governments, will ensure that they thrive regardless of essentially going it alone.

They don't need Big Macs or Bentleys to do well. Most of the things which are sanctioned are luxury/non essential items anyway. The west may want to consider how important that stuff actually is over here too.

Tinker;

- Before the invasion, the Rouble was 90 to the £
- Immediately after the invasion, the Rouble was 180 to the £
- Right now, the Rouble is 67 to the £.... a third stronger than pre invasion.

Self sufficient in energy, plenty of willing business partners in most sectors barring western brands and companies. Sure, they are less desirable and advanced, but they are available and affordable.

The west paying record amounts for non Russian energy, and seeing record inflation, so are suffering more than a bunch of people in St Petersburg who cant buy a Big Mac anymore.

Whos winning financially, really?
Same as on the ground too, as much as the media loves to tell us that Ukraine are winning.

Jeff, just keep reinvesting those cheap dividends, and sit back for this all to pan out.

Covid is classed as over, but the effects of it are 100% not.

Another year or 2 and we should have properly come out the other side.

As I said yesterday, if oil was back down 25% to a still healthy $75, the SP would be back down to 320 too, so zero progress on a year ago mid pandemic when nobody was consuming oil and the price was $70. So it seems that the run to 450, was wholly caused by the oil price spike. Lunacy.

Such blatant undervaluing of companies by a select few people, should be illegal. Especially since those same people buy the cheap shares.

Ill almost certainly be reinvesting 100% of my dividend if the SP is 380 levels come payment day, which looks nailed on. No question. An easy medium term 15% to be made on that, on top of an already inflated divi due to the weak £.

Im hopeful for 6c per share in the next quarter.

It makes you wonder what the SP would be if crude was a still strong $75..... 325p?

Silly question since the high price of oil is the main driver behind inflation and possible recession, hence current worries, but still.

People are already moaning about energy costs.... its only just begun. Wait until Winter, when supply wont touch demand.

£2.35 for diesel?
$140 a barrel?

Yet airports are record high busy too......

Contradictions everywhere.

$110 oil still too.

Divi payment this week. Q2 results in 7 weeks. £600m in buy backs every month. I have no concerns at all. This will return to 450+ within 6 months, recession or not.

FTSE futures also down 1.1%

390 again today.

The money making roller coaster continues.

Tinker, striking over pay should be illegal IMO.

Striking over working conditions, a breach of H&S rules, breach of contracts/agreement, bullying, etc etc etc, yes, 100%. The workplace should be a safe, respectable and good place to be.

But striking because some idiot who could be replaced after a 2 month training course, wants more money and deems themselves to be uber important despite a lack of education, just because they are an important cog in a machine, like all the cogs are, is just plain blackmail and they know it.

You knew the salary when you signed up. There was no clause containing a 5% annual rise. There's no justification to strike other than greed/blackmail. And the Unions love it. They get a tenner a month per member and striking gives them power, which is all they care about really.

People only really ever strike over pay, don't they?

Spot on....

Blatant market manipulation.... oh the oil firms are very high at the mo, and will report strong profits in a month and a bit.... lets dump their share prices by a disproportionate amount and load up on cheap shares whilst we can eh?

The stock market is absolutely crooked, and how a small number of people just get to decide the £££ value of a company based on their own views, often ignoring facts and fundamentals, is diabolical. It's not even based solely on supply/demand/buying/selling volumes of a share, as much as that's a factor across markets.

It may not be over yet. If we fall into recession which is likely, it will be used to line pockets further you'd imagine.

I have zero worries as long as crude is over $100 and the world is moving about again after 2 slow years.

You could argue that many cogs in the chain are as important as each other, yet almost everyone considers themselves to be worth more than they get paid. How many people were supposedly 'key workers' in the pandemic? So the people stacking shelves in Tesco were key workers, but the IT people behind the scenes who keep the stock, ordering and and billing systems running, who likely get paid 25% more than skill-less till workers which could easily be replaced by IT in most cases, weren't?

Ultimately, salary is dictated by several factors, most of which have very little to do with the impact of you not doing it.

1- Expertise needed - How tricky is it to do the job? So how easy would it be to replace you with somebody else?

2 - How many people can to it - Ties into the above and is basic supply and demand. Not everybody can be a whatever they like regardless of what Mum told you. There needs to be a position for it. In any given year, there's about 13000 people studying Psychology in Uni across the UK. But there's only about 13000 registered Psychologists in the UK.
That's a lot of people changing career paths pretty fast when they graduate and nobody has any work for them. You cant do a job if nobody wants to pay you in favour of somebody else.

3 - How much income/value do you generate - The main factor driving incomes. It's a given. Regardless of how important and skilled your job is, or even isn't, the amount of money which you bring in/save directly dictates your salary. That's why a brain surgeon who saves a life every day gets £150k a year, why a top tier lawyer can bill a grand an hour......... and why a talentless girl with enormous knockers can earn more than that posting sleaze on OnlyFans.

The factors all tie in together. So whilst it's a nice notion paying entry level NHS nurses £35k, and whilst its seemingly not 'fair' that a FTSE100 CEO gets paid 200 times more than a mid-manager in the same company, that just how it works.

If you pay that till worker £25k not £19k min wage, what do you then pay the IT worker already on £25k?

Giraffe; the pending divi wasn’t upped from the previous quarter.

I fully expect that to change in the next quarter when results are released in early Aug.

All this worry over inflation and base rates; markets have forgotten that crude is still well over $100 with supply lower than demand.

Reinvest those dividends in cheap shares and forget about any short time kerfuffle.

What Russia have done is dreadful, but why should BP give Putin £20b in assets for nothing!? Isn’t that even worse than profiting from their operations?

We own 20% of that company and are therefore entitled to our dividends until a buyer is found.

Exactly Ford.

Then plain and simple fact is that we all benefit from each other and the world works better with cooperation.

The decision was made by us and many others to pull out of Russian very soon after the invasion. So soon that you suspect that they knew what was coming anyway, much sooner.

A large part of it for me is just politics. It’s clear that Ukraine are being brave and fighting like heroes, but ultimately, they are losing. They’ve been sent a small percentage of the weapons promised by the west, the Russian advance is slow and hence labelled as failing by the western media. But ultimately they are progressing and over time will win, despite the cost. It’s a given. That’s why IMO the west has made the long term and irreversible choice to exit Russia. It’s just politics and PR from the west to show that we’ve helped and how much we care etc.

And the rouble is stronger now than before the invasion, so make of that what you will.

Absolutely brutal and totally overdone

$120 a barrel!

This is BP, not some chump change AIMer.

We will see the 450s again, if not in the next month, then in the foreseeable.

Just enjoy those dividends, watch the buy backs roll in at the tune of £60m per day, watch the oil price cruise along, and wait for those ridiculous Q2 results in a few weeks.

It's clear that Covid isn't over, as much as the pandemic is.

Financials are all over the place. Nations and corporations trying to claw back as much lost cash as they can, after 2 rough years. Then you add Russia to the mix. The two are IMO related as much as it sound a bit conspiracy theorist. Ukraine is a nice convenient reason to shun Russian energy, and the West to go elsewhere. If we actually cared about Ukraine, then we'd have sent them more than 10% of the promised arsenal. Its all smoke and mirrors to dress up the clawback of lost incomes and taxes.

Russia were mounting an attack on Ukraine long before this year. We saw energy prices starting to rise a year ago, hence we all got a little handout last Winter, and all the rhetoric says that they know fine well that things will still be tough in Q4/Q1 too. The recession is coming, along with a tough Winter for many IMO.

Ultimately though, BP are being hit right now over concerns over consumption, due to inflation, which will in turn lead to lower incomes. I have no medium term concerns though. $120 oil for a while still, the world moving again, 7% buy backs and 4% dividends a year.

Its a no brainer to stick with oil shares whilst the markets yo yo and the world is in turmoil.

Sub 400 is a fire sale. At these prices Ill probably reinvest all the pending divi, rather than taking 70% out for a good knees up.