RE: The Chubb/StreamLabs Deal Changes Everything19 Aug 2025 17:22
Taser, I respect your long-term view and frustration — it’s been a tough ride from the highs. But just to be clear: I’m not regurgitating “company literature.” I’ve read the numbers, the RNSs, and the broker notes. I’m forming a view based on evidence, not promises.
Let’s break this down.
1. Yes, the company overpromised in 2023–24
Totally fair criticism. Salesforce rollout was delayed. Training pipeline slower than hoped. They did miss timelines. But missing timelines doesn’t mean the business is broken — it means it’s in execution mode not hype mode.
2. The TES model is not just buzz — it's live now
Dallas is operating at 30%+ margin — direct from the RNS. That’s not a future “hope,” it’s a working site. StreamLabs partnership is real. These are the building blocks of platform scale — not PR fluff.
3. House broker forecasts (Canaccord) are cautious — that’s their job
They often base 25E and 26E numbers on lagging data. Their last forecast was before the full Dallas Template rollout and Chubb deal were integrated. You know how this works — house brokers can only upgrade once the numbers start showing. That’s how broker compliance works.
4. Management buying? Agree — would help massively
Totally with you. Nothing inspires confidence like insiders backing it. I’d love to see that change — and yes, the buybacks have been underwhelming in scale. But still — they’re buying at 340p, not dumping at 305p.
5. The share price decline ≠ business decline
We’ve dropped 100p in a soft AIM market, low liquidity, no big institutional flows. But:
Revenue is still up 120% in 5 years
EPS is up from 2020 despite dilution
Debt is under control
Margins are holding
Recurring revenue is being built
You said: “There’s a way back — but only with great interims.”
I fully agree. But that’s exactly what I’m betting on. Fundamentals first, price later. And if they hit the plan, the rerate will come — with or without PR hype.