Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
My concern will be the free cash flow implications of a worse than anticipated number of flights if the wave 2 of Covid. Imagine if in the next official statements the FCF is not positive until 2022. Just tempering my excitement at H1's potential.
I agree, however in the short term the implications of the new variant could be significant. See page 10
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf
(Not Peer Reviewed yet)
However the model run here suggests with increased transmisability there will be a peak in Covid cases great that than of the first wave 2020. The only scenario modelled without an increase in the peak is a scenario whereby 2million people are vaccinated per week.
My point is merely that if the Covid strain we are encountering becomes the globally dominant strain then we could have a repeat of wave 1. If, vaccines are not rolled out at m's per week.
This is not to bring negativity to the board. I too anticipated 1.50 by April. I am concerned however we are underestimating this strain with alot of the messaging mirroring that of the early weeks of the crisis. Watch this to remind yourself of how to govt communicated the emerging threat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3sisz6FA6A
Callum
Hello all,
I can see similarities between the virus reporting of the new strain of Covid and the first reporting of the pandemic in Europe. I feel a sense of uncertainty around the current situation. Posing a hypothetical question, how would markets react globally if the vaccines did not prove effective against this new strain. I understand this is unlikely and this has been communicated, however it is not an impossibility and until we have confirmation of the vaccines effectiveness I feel this should be considered. What do people think?
Callum
Odds makers still have it at 4/19 in favor of a deal.
-3.5% Now
Keep an eye on the RYCEY also 4.30pm -4.7% will show if the uptrend continues through this evening.
You can see as the EURGBP has worsened in the last 30mins relating to probability of deal. Conversely you can see the small inverse spike RR has had in the last 30mins. Clearly Brexit sentiment has an effect.
Hey Casa
Main effect is the revised Free Cash Flow forecast for 2020 at (4.2)bn. However 2021 FCF remains unchanged.
Also Brexit uncertainty impacting UK stocks overall.
I see 2 major effects in short term;
- Positive Brexit Outcome
- Oxford Vaccine Approval
Outside of this I expect that if you are willing to hold until April we will be looking at 140+
In the longer term I still do not change my opinion, if FCF is announced any earlier that H2 2021 expect a huge upside.
Callum
I have just bought reinvested 50% back into 3x Long RR but am nervous of the implications of holding longer term. Can anyone advise ?
Do people advise against holding 3x over the weekend?
What do you mean by 'goes negative'? You mean if we lose say another 30% of RR?
Agree, 3-6Month hold, will make your money back/ increase profits.
Why do you think USA opening will be a negative effect?
No deal is currently being priced in IMO. Look at FTSE -1.3%, all major stocks down 3-7%. I can see this settling back to 120-130 at Christmas, with vaccine news still to come.
Hey all,
12% down on RYCEY vs. 8% at 4.30pm, 4% on announcement of Lancet review but big dip in last 30mins. Open down tomorrow IMO unfortunately
Callum
Hi all,
I took a screenshot of the RYCEY % Gain at 4.30pm which was quoted at 8% its currently sat at 10.4% and was touching 12 a few minutes ago, fair to assume we can add or subtract any difference from the 4.30pm % and tonight's closing % on NYSE for open tomorrow?
EG 2.4% Difference here equating to 1.34*1.024 or 1.37
Good luck all tomorrow!
Hey,
I got into RR at around £2.30 from memory and fully bought into the RI which left me around 0.90 post issue. Since I have sold a couple of times but always re-invested any profits. Its 80% of my portfolio at the moment. Everytime I take some out I get drawn back!
For me the vaccine roll out and Brexit are two short term effects to consider between now and Jan, both of these successfully implemented will get us most of the way to 1.35. From there If you are willing to hold for 6-12months for me it seems difficult to see a situation whereby we return to anything below this.
Personally I am looking between 1.35 and 1.50 to get out and look somewhere else a little less volatile. Ultimately at some point pre-covid levels are achievable which would equate to c2.25-2.50 so there is room to grow still.