Member Info for Ccassidy123

Hey all,

The warrants are fully out on the market today right?

Currently 25% down with an average of 2.5 lol. Expect this to rise again soon :)

Callum

Hey all,

What is your expectation tomorrow after warrants are exercised

Callum

I would like to know about this also, do you have £20k a year allowance on ISA's which in cumulative in nature. I.e. can I open 40ks worth of ISA's over 2 years?

Agree, really sad how people attack others on here.

I think global air travel would have improved quicker without the new variant and lockdowns less intense and for a shorter amount of time without the new variant.

The rate of vaccination though I agree is unaffected.

The accuracy of FCF's depends really on what the assumptions were on air travel in Q1 and Q2 2021 IMO. In the 11th trading update it read 'Commercial airtravel looks likely to recover slowly in first half of 2021'.

The 11th update where FCF was revised down for 2020 saw a 8% or so drop in SP from 128-130, from which the SP has not recovered, despite the good news. Clearly any change to the 2021 FCF will impact the SP significantly. I am LTH on this and hopeful that global air travel will not be completely shut down by the new variant. To be honest though it looks pretty inevitable that in the short term things will get worse before they improve.

I raised the point around FCF for 2021 days ago. My view is that this is what is holding the SP back, people are concerned about the liquidity position of RR given that it would be wrong to assume that the new variant of Covid was factored into their thinking when they last disclosed their FCF expectations. Its likely that they will negatively revise their FCF at some point this year which would have a disastrous effect on the SP. This is why I believe when you compare other travel stocks you are seeing this diversion, the market does not trust that RR will be able to pay its bills.

.

RE: Covid New Variant Sun 12:01
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmfLkEuyWdo Worth a watch guys to re-affirm the message I shared regarding the LS of Tropical Medicines paper... https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

Trend of new cases. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time sharp upturn noted despite large scale regional lockdowns and testing/ some vaccinations.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-air-travel-reached-post-march-peak-day-christmas-n1252339 - great for RR however expect an impact in Feb of this behaviour...

57% Increase in cases in london in last 7 days https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases

https://www.dw.com/en/new-covid-variant-reaches-germany-from-uk/a-56054140 Spreading of new variant across Europe

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-variant-canada-sweden-spain-covid-b1779116.html Spreading across Europe and NA.

HOWEVER

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/global-report-astrazeneca-chief-believes-vaccine-will-work-on-variant-strain

Yes the vaccine should be effective!

My concern is around the assumptions built into RR Free Cash Forecast regarding air travel. For example, if the air travel assumptions are based on 70% of 2019 would this still be achievable if we have a second more infectious global wave, again grounding air travel for most of H1 until the vaccine program is complete?

Can anyone provide the assumptions behind the positive FCF in H2 of 2021 for RR?

I anticipate positive movements in the stock market in week 1 of January, but I am concerned that we could see a downturn across the rest of Q1.

Callum

Very sad downward trend 5 minute chart read.

Expected this to happen but not so soon, it is clearly as a result of the globally worsening covid news. How do you expect global air travel to open further when there is a 70% more transmissible variant spreading across the world.

Good context to share, thank you.

Imagine investing your hard earned money and not being willing to discuss anything other than '£2 in April!!!'.

The point is not a sell off right now but in 4-6weeks or so with escalation of Covid cases in the short term.

This is my concern, but specifically in regards to global air travel, look at the spread of the new variant its almost global now, this is not going to have a positive effect that is for sure.

I agree that this is surprising and a tad concerning for the short term.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-faces-dangerous-third-wave-unless-vaccination-target-doubled-ministers-have-been-warned-12174566

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-faces-dangerous-third-wave-unless-vaccination-target-doubled-ministers-have-been-warned-12174566

Proceed with caution.

I don't really understand your point? As a first time investor I am providing research on 2021 regarding coronavirus. Is there an issue with being a first time investor and actually providing some evidence for anything I say on here? Or is the sign of a good 'experienced' investor to make decisions based off sentiment alone and attack those that have a different opinion. If that is the case I am happy to be a 'ill informed first time investor'.

As DOH85 says and I agree with, RR is on the up yes hence why I have re-invested at a dropped price. But, why is everyone so offended by raising some concerns based on research available to all of us?

Again I ask if anyone has any information regarding the assumptions on air travel behind the +ve FCF in H2 2021, or is this not an acceptable to question on this board?

I find this post very disappointing, to assume that my concern is due to a mistimed or missed opportunity is an incorrect assumption. I currently have 20,000 shares at an average of 95p, I invested in the rights issue in full and added a further 5000 shares on the <100p dip last week.

I am presenting a body of research including a scientific journal from one of the UKs most respected group of epidemiologists. I also agree with you that Tuesday will be a significant blue day not least because the RYCEY closed 7,50%+.

I merely present that the scientific modelling suggests a broadly similar peak to March even in light of 2m vaccines per week which at the moment the vaccine timeline does not believe we can meet. (Evidence for this being that 20-30yr olds are not forecast to receive the vaccine until H2 2021 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-uk-calculator-b1777900.html)

I would love an educated response based on the specific points raised not a broad-brush incorrect assumption on a persons open position.

I also asked a very specific question relating to RR's Free Cash Flow Forecast, the reason for this is that we saw a 8-10% drop on the adjusted 2020 FCF so clearly this is a fundamental value perception driver in the market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmfLkEuyWdo Worth a watch guys to re-affirm the message I shared regarding the LS of Tropical Medicines paper... https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

Trend of new cases. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time sharp upturn noted despite large scale regional lockdowns and testing/ some vaccinations.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-air-travel-reached-post-march-peak-day-christmas-n1252339 - great for RR however expect an impact in Feb of this behaviour...

57% Increase in cases in london in last 7 days https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases

https://www.dw.com/en/new-covid-variant-reaches-germany-from-uk/a-56054140 Spreading of new variant across Europe

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-variant-canada-sweden-spain-covid-b1779116.html Spreading across Europe and NA.

HOWEVER

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/global-report-astrazeneca-chief-believes-vaccine-will-work-on-variant-strain

Yes the vaccine should be effective!

My concern is around the assumptions built into RR Free Cash Forecast regarding air travel. For example, if the air travel assumptions are based on 70% of 2019 would this still be achievable if we have a second more infectious global wave, again grounding air travel for most of H1 until the vaccine program is complete?

Can anyone provide the assumptions behind the positive FCF in H2 of 2021 for RR?

I anticipate positive movements in the stock market in week 1 of January, but I am concerned that we could see a downturn across the rest of Q1.

Callum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55452262 EG potential to become globally dominant as seen in SE UK across Nov - Dec.