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Paragraf JDP update due by YE2020 according to PH, so you'd hope we would hear something soon.
I suspect we won't get an update until orders have been finalised.
However, I suspect that a lot is happening behind the scenes based on the comments that VDTK have made over the last 11 months about deals that are being pursued.
Potential deals:
1. Solar carports for leading (top 3 by brand) food retailer (Business update 28 Jan 2020)
2. Trialling modules with largest global supplier of equipment for off grid telecoms towers (Business update 28 Jan 2020)
3. Collaboration with Page Hardy Harris for solar solutions for industrial rooftops (Business update 28 Jan 2020)
4. Agreement with XNRGI to develop capacity to deliver commercial packages in India (Business update 28 Jan 2020)
5. Distribution agreement with Softmetal to prove and sell PV transport solutions for perishable goods vehicles (Business update 28 Jan 2020)
6. Trialling integrated solar tiles with top tier roofing firm MetroTile for housing projects. (Business update 28 Jan 2020)
7. 3 month trial with EAV for solar panels on fleet of vehicles. Results by end Aug ( RNS 27 May 2020)
8. Paid trial with Dutch based IM Efficiency for their “solar on top range” for HGVs (RNS 27 May 2020)
9. Potential orders from SAF Group in Pakistan, local partner of Solar Turbines , part of Caterpillar once trial completed ( RNS 22 June 2020)
10. Orders from untapped 2GW market for lightweight solar panels (offshore oil and gas sector?) (RNS 2 July 2020)
11. Further orders from ENDECO SPA in Libya (RNS 2 July 2020)
12. Further orders from marine market in Thailand and other marine markets (RNS 2 July 2020)
13. Further orders (1 m euros) from Black Tulip Minerals in Peru as capacity expanded from 50t to 300t per day (RNS 13 July 2020)
14. Additional orders expected in the “very near term” in the mining sector in Latam and other locations (RNS 13 July 2020)
15. Australian mining companies. VDTK in discussions with all the major mining companies looking to take advantage of 50% tax breaks from Australian Gvt (PH interview)
16. S African and LatAm mining companies. (PH interview)
17. Micro grids in Australia. VDTK in discussions with Rural Fire and Emergency Services in Australia (PH interview)
18. Australia out of town retail. VDTK in discussions with a number of retail chains. (PH interview)
19. Military applications (camouflaged dust repellent SPVs) VDTK in discussion with an Australian tier 1 defence contractor. Potential orders from NATO. (PH interview)
20. VDTK discussing a deal with one of the world’s largest distribution trucking companies (PH interview)
Patience required!
The comparison between VDTK's and Solbian's website is pretty stark. https://www.solbian.eu/en/
Advertising material and PR. However, I suspect that this is due to resource constraints and the company's focus has been on restructuring the management structure, product development & commercialisation and expansion of its sales and distribution networks. In my view that it is a sensible strategy, however, I 100% agree that VDTK needs to improve its website, PR and communication strategy as and when they have the resources so to do.
SnipVW. I am a strong believer in VDTK's product and management however, I wholeheartedly agree with your comments about needing to improve the website, quality&content of tweets,
Distressed seller out + debt paid down + cashed up for capacity expansion + Paragraf JDP graphene update due + possibility of large order announcements in 2H Nov/Dec + Biden in the White House + Global shift to solar gathering pace + Institutional Investors are now on board inc Unicorn AM + Cov-19 vaccine is being rolled out. The stars and the moon are beginning to align......
Any thoughts about SP potential, mkt share and other areas of the transplant mkt they might target. RENX 5 bagged post IPO.
Interesting that competitor DAS Energy is targetting the wind turbine market for their flex SPVs. Could be an interesting opportunity for VDTK to explore with a global partner such as Vestas by offering their flex SPVs as a modular option. https://www.pveurope.eu/solar-generator/hybrid-power-das-energy-attaches-solar-modules-wind-turbine
Buys massively out numbering sells yet the SP has barely moved. Any thoughts?
Unicorn VCT are savvy investors ( ok I admit I also hold MXCT & SCE so this is a classic case of confirmation bias! ) but they clearly see the l-t investment case for VDTK as do the investors in the Unicorn VCT Fund. Blue sky scenario and VDTK are a 35 bagger in the next 5 years imo. No slam dunk but the key building blocks ( industry dynamics + product + management vision + capital access + USP/ entry barriers (GISPVs)/MOAT+ strategic stakeholder backing - Unicorn Asset Management) all stack up well imo.
According to Michael Walter's VDTK update, the largest institutional investor to have taken a 5% stake is Unicorn Asset Management. I suspect that it is the Unicorn VCT ( AUM £266m which invests in 118 AIM growth companies) which has invested in VDTK. At 0.5% of the VCT fund, VDTK is a relatively small holding ( largest holding us 11.4% of the fund!) If VDTK delivers new orders in 4Q20, maybe Unicorn will increase their holding. Encouragingly both Unicorn VCT ( and their investors) are l-t strategic investors not 'flippers'.
https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2020/06/30/popular-vct-manager-on-raising-25m-amid-covid-19/
I think today's placing is actually pretty positive, and gives VDTK some strategic flexibility.
1) It funds w/c and enables them to possibly meet anticipated orders in the pipeline
2) Eliminates funding concerns
3) The size of the fund raise suggests to me that it isn't purely about funding w/c and could help accelerate capacity expansion at both Lainate and possibly in a strategic mkt (Australia?) This would enable VDTK to cut costs and accelerate demand
4) If an institutional investor or two are part of the fund raise this would be a significant vote of confidence in VDTK's management and strategy
5) The last fund raise in May was followed by a 500% increase in the SP from 3p to 18p. Yes we need the orders to come through in Nov/Dec and a positive update from Paragraf, but if they come through then there doesn't imo seem much downside in the SP. As the old adage goes, A Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Verditek plc ("Verditek" or "Company"), the international clean technology company that develops, manufactures and sells certified lightweight solar panels, is pleased to announce that the Company is carrying out a placing to raise approximately up to £3.5 million, before expenses, via the issue of up to 43,750,000 new Ordinary Shares ("Placing Shares") at the issue price of 8 pence per share ("Issue Price") ("Placing").
Key Highlights:
· Proposed fundraising of approximately up to £3.5 million, before expenses, at a price of 8 pence per share by way of a Placing.
· Net proceeds of the Placing will be used principally to provide working capital for the Company (to fund the cash lag between purchase of raw materials and sales receipts as production ramps up) and to strengthen the balance sheet.
Sadly I'm not a fly on the wall on Rob Richards' office wall! I am hopeful that we will see at least 1 significant order announced in the next 8 weeks. I have zero knowledge about whether this will happen or not but, I am optimistic, based on the time since the last large order (Aug 5) and the number of global sales people pursuing deals (19 inc RR)
I think we can all speculate about the reasons why we haven't seen a spate of sizeable (1MW+ ) follow up orders from VDTK since the SAF Pakistan deal was announced in early August. I think there are a variety of reasons but if anybody has any questions on that score, then I think they would be best served by contacting Rob Richards directly and getting the answer from the proverbial "horse's mouth."
I get the impression that behind the scenes the VDTK management and sales team have been extremely busy over the past few months and that a number of projects are currently under discussion - some of which were referenced in the Paul Harrison vimeo interview in June and appear to be focussed in Australia which seems to be emerging as a key strategic market for VDTK.
When investing , I always like to cross check what management is saying with what their customers are saying to ensure that I am not being fed a stream of "porkies".
I am transposing a Q&A session I had with one of VDTK's customers a few months ago. It is admittedly feedback from just one customer but to me it suggests a couple of things which give me confidence in the investment case for VDTK: Firstly that the new CEO Rob Richards is seen by customers as approachable , knowledgeable and customer friendly and secondly that in some of the key verticals which VDTK are targetting, they are not currently facing any competition.
Q&A with a Verditek customer
Q. It would be fantastic to see some photos of Verditek's solar panels in situ at X and get some feedback from you about the benefits you are seeing from using Verditek's solar panels and what your future plans are.
A. Sure. I think what we’ve got planned for a future project will blow people’s minds
Q. Why did you choose to use Verditek’s solar panels?
A. I suppose it’s all down to what you actually require them for. For us it’s a no brainer, the flexible ultra light weight easy to assemble panels are perfect for what we require. The only down side is the up front cost but when it’s factored into an initial fund raise it’s not such a problem.
Q. In your view is there any competition and what differentiates Verditek’s panels?
A. This is the first time we will be using them and I’ve not really come across any competition to be fair but then again I haven’t looked because I’m happy with what I’ve seen so far
Q. Also I know you can't divulge specifics, but do you have other projects in mind where you see potential to roll out Verditek’s solar panels? In terms of the payback on diesel cost savings is it possible to quantify that?
A. We aim to install this technology on all our projects moving forward. One project we recently finished has I believe now also put in an order for a 150 kw supply. Personally, I think the company has two great things going for it. Very approachable as well knowledgeable CEO and a product we think is very much in line with our “Build it better, Build it Cleaner” programme
I've never met Rob but I have been in contact with him on a number of occasions. My impression is that he is a straightforward commercially driven CEO who is committed to delivering shareholder value and his remuneration package is dependent on him delivering those results. The people I have spoken to in the oil and gas industry all speak very highly of Rob as do Verditek customers whom I have spoken to. Rob's track record at Siemens Power is also impressive and suggests that he has the experience and the contacts to deliver results at Verditek.
I've never met or had any contact with TW so I don't know if he has bothered to contact Rob and form an independent opinion of his credibility. Recent attacks on VDTK seem to focus at lobbing gratuitous insults at Verditek Chairman Lord David Willetts by referring to him as a "corrupt Tory Toff" as well as commenting on contracts which were announced in 2018/2019 before Rob was on the BOD.
As you say, if Rob delivers the results, then VDTK's SP will ultimately take care of itself. TW ****ged off Novacyt in April when its SP was £2.70p. Last Friday Novacyt's SP was £12.00. In recent weeks TW has gone curiously silent on Novacyt. Funny that.
The SP went from 10.6p on Aug 4 to 18 on Aug 7, driven largely by the news of the 1.5MW order from SAF Pakistan. Since then almost 3 months have elapsed with a dearth of positive news.
Despite the radio silence, I suspect a lot of progress has been made behind the scenes but the large deals, as yet, haven't got over the line. Frustrating, but as has been mentioned many times on this boarf, this is typical of an embryonic company which is essentially educating new customers about the efficacy of its products.
Orders are lumpy, and in the absence of concrete news, there is an understandable inclination to worry and fear the worst. That is why AIM shares are so volatile but it is also hy AIM offers patient investors such great opportunities.
I remain very confident that VDTK will deliver the goods but patience is required.
Sells seem to be significantly outnumbering buys today yet the SP is up a tad. Any thoughts as to why this is the case?
With regard to GISPVs another important factor to consider is what the capital costs/margins will be vs the competition ( CIGS/PERC/N-type IBC/Pe enabled cells) My analysis suggests that the COP of GISPVs could be significantly lower than competitors as the production will use existing equipment rather than requiring the deployment of new expensive MOCVD equipment . Combine that with potentially significantly higher GISPV efficiency levels and you have a sustainable competitive advantage for VDTK vs other flex SPV producers. If VDTK can also scale capacity in the next few years and aggressively reduce silicon procurement costs, then they are in a v strong competitive position. With a mkt cap of £28m, the risk reward appears pretty compelling despite the 50% retrace in the SP from the ATH.
Based on PH's vimeo interview in June I am optimistic that we will see significant news on the Paragraf JDP in the coming weeks/months. There has been speculation about whether GISPVs can reach 30-35% efficiency levels. My sense from talking to researchers in the field is that this is achievable ( a combination of removing the metal busbars, improved conductivity and reduced efficiency deterioration due to better thermal conductivity in the graphene layer) I doubt whether Paragraf will specify the exact timeline for commercialisation (too many variables still in play) but I suspect that it may be sooner than the mkt expects and Perovskite enabled SPVs will rapidly be eclipsed by GISPVs in the niche flex mkt. Needless to say this has potentially significant implications for VDTK as I suspect they jointly control the IP on the flex GISPVs which have been developed in the JDP with Paragraf over the last 24 months ( Paragraf - Simon Thomas/Ivor Guiney have filed 11 of the key patents on process technology for GISPVs which cover all segments of the SPV mkt) The likelihood of competitors being able to backward engineer the GISPV process technology seems fairly remote. GISPVs give VDTK a USP/Moat and could be the catalyst for institutional investors to take a stake in VDTK which in turn could trigger a rerate in the SP.