Member Info for catsick

The mine has been running since the 1850s , constantly extending the life, they will operate for as long as price of Tin holds up they have at least 50 more years mine life if they need it and are prepared to go deep enough

Also worth bearing in mind something the company is doing nothing to promote, the hot element at the moment is Tungsten , both Tungsten west and Strategic have had massive share rises touting Tungsten projects in old tin mining assets in the area , the issue is that while prices have gone up over 500% recently they can go down if China decides to glut the market or agree to export again, South crofty actually used to also mine and sell tungsten and there is plenty there still, And having it as a useful byproduct of a profitable tin mine can turbocharge profits without the risk of a price collapse , If I was running the company I would promote the Tungsten aspect to boost the shares ahead of any equity financing ... South crofty is a much better asset than Tungsten west have and a quarter of the market cap ....

Yes makes a lot of sense, the company in oz since listing there have not seen much local interest, this is hopefully the start of a more serious move there , as an aside shares in oz are waay more liquid and trade much tighter than in the Uk , I peviously held these in the UK where the spread on even small size is often 10% wide , in oz 1% wide and with a decent order book where you can get a decent volume done , I was also able to sell all my uk ones and buy aud shares at more than 10% cheaper ... the LSE is a total joke ...

Very strange spike in Australia this am , +25% to .41 aud which is 2.23p in uk money , the AUD stock has been consistantly cheaper than the UK and quoted way way tighter always due to the insane UK market maker system/scam , the move is real as I sold a few into it , is news going to break today ? these zim assets are very undervalued and prime for quick development, is a bid happening ???

It would seem to me that the stated terms are that LIT get Os funding + 5 * os funding + interest on Os funding at 30% pa from 1 jan 25 , which is around 53m gbp or 106m aud , more than enough to pay all the debt and have more than the market cap in the bank as well as a load of juicy cases some of which like Panthera would seem like similar big wins potentially

Yes very interesting , given how rapid the improvement has been on the offshore blocks, this should prove an excellent deal, the much lower cost of operating onshore together with the proven large volumes of oil in place just waiting to have modern methods applied should mean that what should be a fairly small investment should produce a very high IRR , Its great that now the cash is flowing there are still going to be lots of high return places to put it all ... this stock is insanely cheap, I guess its just too small to be on a lot of radars but not for long ....

Price on the move again today, At some point the Karo project will flip from being a big liability to a huge asset given that it is a big option on a massive ammount of PGM in the ground, I suspect that they are talking to the big investors from the UAE who have a big mandate to spend 100s of billions on strategic mining assets, they just took a large stake in a Tin mine in the DRC ( alphamin ) as well as Mopani in Zambia and this type of projext as a JV would be right up their street , A 100-200m investment in Karo would remove all the funding worry and also set a value on the asset which would then become a big asset and source of cashflow rather than a big liability given the outstanding funding ... this and the rally in PGM could set this on fire ....

While we dont plan on a settlement being reached, looking at all the data from Burford we have lose 8% win 21% and settle 70% so settle is actually the most likely event even in litiagation funding, are they just going to stump up cash ? probably not, royalty regimes are very common and easy to police, it is very much a face saving option, Im just putting it out there, whatever would be agreed in a settlement it will be multiples of the current market cap , we only need to worry about the 8% loss probability .....

My guess is we get to 16p pretty soon which given there are now 240m shares after the raise would equate to a 5% value on a 1bn claim , the next thing would be to see what the actual claim is and reprice to around 5% of that , then it gets interesting , being offered 20-1 for a even money or better punt

One other possibility is we may end up in some sort of face saving settlement prior to trial , such as the Indians offering to give a 10-15% royalty on the project ( which they already hold and could easily justift ) and would probably pay 50-100m usd a year once a decent sized mining operation is running ....

I was involved in a similar play where oz listed KCN took the Thai gov to tribunal over their mine being shut , was a 7-10X return but ended up in a settlement as the management of the co being miners wanted to mine rather than get the billion payout so dont discount some early agreement of some nature ..

Either way the gurrent 4% of the lower end of what we should be claiming is too cheap still and the higher it goes the less dilution will happen if the thing takes 3 years ....

To me the logical place for the tribunal would be Singapore , this is looking very similar to me to the case of KCN listed on the ASX who had a mine shut by the Thai government who were also attempting to expropriate, similar billion ish dollar claim and at the outset of the litigation market cap was around 2-3% of the total claim, this was a nice 10 bagger for me and I would anticipate a similar move here to around 20% of the claim value as the litigation proceeds, KCN was also heard in Singapore arbitration court. I suspect this re-rate will come about as the news flow underlines the size and severity of the claim . A portfolio of these cheap court cases offers some good chances for very high payouts and would be a much better punt than a position in Burford which seems to price the Argentina claim at around 25%+ although in this case it is the ability to pay not the winning of the case/appeal that matters ....

The ASX listing is a must, the company is simply worth more to a domestic Australian investor, when producing cashflow and paying Australian taxes an asx listed company issuing franking credits is a worth a lot more than an unloved AIM company with no UK institutional base, I doubt they will dilute to achieve a listing but cannot rule it out , I suspect they will merge with Antipa but clearly he was not giving the plan away and talking up the ore at telfer is probably a good negotiating tactic

Nice to see the azule breakdown , given the inherited oil , they get paid $8m to take on this asset ! what is not to like

! offload the inventory and debt free , with half being offloaded in June ...

The 6450 is not from the azule deal its post azule so you dont get to add it to the 3800 that was prior ...

They can easiliy get to 10k though cheaply by adding wells which given the FPSO can handle a lot more than double current production is a very low hanging fruit to pick ...

At 10k of production and no net debt the market cap should be around 300m-500m usd , that is my target ... which would be raised if any subsequent deals are done with the cash pile being generated ...

I dont think a div makes sense while the shares are so cheap , I think the best thing for the company to say is we aim to maintain a cash balance of $100m , any excess held over this will be used to buy back shares in the market

thats an easy policy to follow and will enable them to be flexible, I think we stay around 90-120p until we get concrete news of the pipe re-opening where we shift to 150-180 and then grind back to 250-300 as the cash finally flows again ....

The funny thing is that in some ways these guys do not want to rush the closing of the deal, the longer they wait the less actual cash gets paid, the cash from the recent offload is going to mean the net payment when azule settles will be very low and when they finaly do close the oil in storage will also have built up to. a decent ammt ...

Thanks, a treasure trove of info in there ... really impressed with how professional and clean these guys are.

The news I am really waiting for is not going to come for a month, the Azule transaction needs final approval and then settlement will happen about a month later, it is the settlement details that are the real interesting thing that will show how good a deal it was ( we know it was good but exactly how good ... ) then we need final details of what the new fiscal conditions are , these will be important going forward, Looking at recent deals such as the Harbour purchase of the BASF oil portfolio at around 35k per flowing barrel I think they should post azule have capacity sto spend around 100m usd on the next deal which should get around 3k barrels, however the same spend might get a lot more organic growth or more Angolan assets at cheap prices ...

I have been trying to model up all the deal cashflows to see how things will look after the Azule deal closes, , I think at the end of this quarter, post oil sales and azule close we should be around net debt and oil in the tanks of around 10m usd, which is a pretty amazing result, at that point we will be trading around an ev per flowing barrel of 17k , which is around 1/3 of similar risked producers , therefore a target of 1.00 is not u nreasonable in the medium term

As far as large deals go I think that there is plenty of organic growth to be had cheaply from the blocks they hold or are bidding for, the onshore stuff should be very quick to move on with a very high chance of success, given what has been already created in such a short space of time I am very bulling here ...

Three lumpy sells there at about 1% of the outstanding shares in total ... I wonder if someone has had a sniff of the results, I think one of the main issues here, and I have held these since 2012, is that while I am happy for Ben to take a huge salary while he is adding value and compounding the shares which in the past he has been excellent at, nowadays FPO probably takes up 10% of his time and his new role as a Nigel Farage in waiting is taking the other 90%, while I do not disagree with his politics I would rather he spend some more time at the FPO coalface.

Sounds like Harry has been screamed at for the Bonus plan by his backers and told to put these min share prices in which all of a sudden makes it seem like we are all much better aligned...

Also interesting fact is that Iluka plan to put the Sierra Leone rutile mine ( worlds largest ) on care and maintenance , the mine has been a quagmire for them , grades falling , cant keep qualified staff and constantly causing problems, better to remove 5% of global supply and enjoy much higher prices for rutile and ilmenite, the removal of this much supply could push prices another 20-30% higher and benefit all players ...