Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
That’s a bit harsh - though only a bit... The money wasn’t all spent on Etinde. Sapele looked like a great find until they realised how difficult it would be for recovery of oil. Can’t recall the level of costs for that “find” but it was huge. Perhaps the best Kevin Hart wheeze was Bomono. This really was the gift that kept giving. We paid a fortune for a drilling rig that was faulty on arrival, we paid to fix it and from memory we didn’t recover those costs or damages... then, Bomono wasn’t economically viable so we ditched it. I’ve lost countless hours on iii and advfn over the years arguing with investors who thought Kevin Hart was the saviour rather than an absolute buffoon. He’s never been appointed elsewhere so I guess other companies don’t rate him...
Can't you read? FID in 2020 or risk losing etinde license in 2021. If you weren't already aware of this, why did you invest here?
Can't wait for luck counts to come along and tell us how positive this is... As I referenced in previous posts, there was no guarantee that FID would happen in 2019 and today's rns not only mentions the prospect of it taking place in early 2020 it goes on to expressly reference FID in 2020.
Jadee - you're missing the point. The RNS gives an indication of when BLVN hope FID will take place - it doesn't provide any guarantee. It can't provide any guarantee as the Board of BLVN don't control the Etinde programme. As such, all of these comments about cash underpinning a certain share price and references to money yet to be received are arguably nonsense. BLVN is now and has been for years a largely binary bet. If Etinde is developed and FID happens in the next year or so, we'll all do rather well. Equally, if New Age, Lukoil or the Cameroon government sit on their hands we'll see a continual decline of the SP. I've been invested here long enough to know the risks and when I read posts by Luck Counts I also know that I'm dealing with someone who has very little understanding of the situation we're in.
Quick question for Luck Counts - when is FID? You keep referring to FID in 2019 as though this is a cast iron guarantee. I've been invested in BLVN for around 10 years now so I think I have a pretty good handle of the overall situation. So, I'm assuming that you understand that BLVN is very much the junior partner in the arrangement with New Age and Lukoil? I'm assuming that you understand that BLVN has zero control over the progression of the Etinde development and as such BLVN has no control over FID and ipso facto not control over when it receives the next payment. On the basis of your incredibly optimistic posts, I'm assuming that you have knowledge of the Cameroonian government's ability to drag its feet and delay decisions for no apparent reason?
Hairy
We sit here at 59m because there is no guarantee that anyone will ever monetise Etinde. As soon as FID happens the SP will reflect the latent value; until then this is worth very little. Nowt has changed for the past 4/5 years.
Profit_profit
I've read the website and I've been invested in BLVN for around 8 years. I noticed you skipped my questions. No bother, I'll ask you again (especially now that you've read the BLVN website):
*What is Bomono and does the company believe it's worth anything?
*Who are Newage and why are they important for Etinde?
*what % of Etinde does Blvn still own and why might this be an issue when it comes to monetising Etinde?
This profit profit fella is a dangerous ramper! The only exploration asset that BLVN owns and has proved into value is Etinde - the suggestion that BLVN has $199m of exploration assets AND Etinde is nonsense.
Profit profit - show us what knowledge of BLVN you actually have:
*What is Bomono and does the company believe it's worth anything?
*Who are Newage and why are they important for Etinde?
*what % of Etinde does Blvn still own and why might this be an issue when it comes to monetising Etinde?
There's a difference between being able to read a balance sheet and actually understand it... The $300m net asset value is largely made up of the $200m attributed to Etinde and the $60m in cash. The divvy has been paid on the basis that BLVN gets another $40m on FID and as we're not actually doing any exploring and only need minimal amounts for our share of the development we can afford to pay the divvy.
However, the $200m attributed to Etinde is an intangible asset and sadly until such time as Etinde is producing oil and gas it's not a bolt on guarantee that we'll realise the value.
My own view (having been invested here for over 8 years) is that COC are lining up to sell, but to suggest that this is $300m of value and some kind of bolt on guarantee of wealth is utter boll*cks.
New Age is privately held - they don't need to announce anything.
The notification requirement starts at 3%, not 5%. Possibly relevant, a 5% + shareholder has the right to call a general meeting of the company under s303....
The newly allotted shares announced recently have diluted COC's shareholding. They haven't sold a single share.
When a company uses the plight of a vulnerable old lady to criticise budget cuts it's time to get out.. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/11/29/pensioner-told-boiler-won-t-be-fixed-until-the-summer-115875-22748825/
Jofish - the repurchase of the shares was solely due to the employee trust waiving the dividend due on it's 37% shareholding on the understanding that the plc used the money to purchase shares of an equivalent value for employees. Won't be a great deal of money left for dividends after the restructure and writedowns come fye. Next IMS will not be for the faint hearted. I used to think this was a great long term investment, but recent events make me very cautious.
Lurpak - I haven't forgotten the PV avenue, it's just that this is longer term and 'jam tomorrow' when compared to actual WF revenues now. Eaga need capital to be able to make the PV model work and without the expected revenue from WF, and it's related activities, this becomes more difficult. One other question to ask yourself - if you were one of the finance houses (the likes of deutsche bank/Barclays/etc) who had spoken to eaga over the past 2 years would you be concerned by the downward trend of their SP and the likely reduction in available finance to plough into new technologies? Would these same finance houses consider that Scottish and Southern are a safer long term bet? I think Eaga is a good long term play assuming they can transition from WF to renewables. However, until the impact of WF on the p&l and balance sheet is clearer I'm staying on the sidelines. Really hope it works out as I have made a lot of money out of eaga.
Slipperyfish - apologies if I'm telling you how to suck eggs here. The utilities pay for the carbon savings that result from installing insulation and heating measures in homes. The Warm Front Scheme obviously produces a lot of carbon savings and these have for years been traded with utilities and the profits split with defra/decc. The funding for Warm Front is c50% reduced over the last 2 years of the contract and my guess is that this funding will probably be skewed in favour of heating measures. There will be far less measures completed (avg heating job c£2500 compared to c£800 for insulation) and therefore far less carbon savings to be traded through CERT. Another factor to consider is that BG will now largely fulfil their own CERT obligation through their newly acquired business. I'm sure the Partners are focussed on making the company successful, but the annual engagement survey is once again trending down.
Slipperyfish - the carbon part of the business relies on the trading of warm front measures so warm front has a larger level of impact than is made out. The lack of employee engagement coupled with poor senior management, and little contract wins, doesn't really bode well... On the plus side two of the directors have seen their fortunes lose 75% of value since floatation and will obviously be desperate to change things.
Halved in price due to the CSR news that WF is being phased out and next year's budget is cut by c50%, and similar level of funding for 2012. Not a great deal else in pipeline so I expect people are wondering where the upside is. The financials are a great bit of history but not much else. If you're looking at them take note of the goodwill that will probably need to be written down. Factor the restructure costs and then look at the impact that will have on the already reduced ebitda.
Buyout would be rather difficult as the largest shareholder is the ebt and they would be unlikely to sanction a sale. Also if a sale was sanctioned the employees would be the beneficiairies of 37% of the proceeds so how many would stay when they have a large wedge in their pocket?
The RI is priced into the current sp. It dropped off a cliff after the RI was announced and people bailed out then knowing their value was being battered. Might have a little drop start of the week, but up and up longer term.