Member Info for candidinvestor

For those queuing up to praise the current management team , just remember the share price has dropped nearly 55% in the past year. .so if you wish , by all means be impressed by glossy and slick presentations explaining to you how they have destroyed 55% of your wealth over the past year if you had shares in them at that time.
The key question to ask of course is why the 55% drop in share price ...the answer is simple ..the city lost confidence in the company and management team when they down graded production forecasts ...it doesn't pay to disappoint the city in terms of under delivering . Furthermore the downgrades didn't only cover one year , they cover 3 years... and ignore management terminology of 'resetting' production levels and instead, translate it into 'reducing' production levels and for the next 3 years and inevitably, by definition, EPS , not just for this year but for the next two as well ..
Lots of waste stripping going on etc ,to remedy the situation , but this is merely acting after the horse has bolted ..this should have been done before. What on earth was the audit and risk committee doing .

So you might ask , why am I investing in the shares.. well that is what I do ..I buy to the sound of the sirens and sell to the fanfare of the trumpets. .I got in at £1.03 so I am grateful to the board of Centamin for screwing up and allowing me to buy in at a cheap price. I accept the risk that the price could go even lower which is why I take a candid look at the prospects of recovery instead. I was hoping to piggy back off other people's research on this board, but there wasn't any of significance or relevance , other than an impolite suggestion from Mr Bond to conduct my own thorough research . Well that didn't take long .
So the reason why I am still invested here is because the city invariably over reacts to bad news which in Centamins case, came with the a anouncement of gold production reductions on 29th September 2020.when the price was £2.05 a share ...the following day the share price dropped 25% to £1.50 per share and by 6 weeks later , when the full implications of the announcement sunk in , the share price had fallen by 50% to £1.05 where it has languished since ..So I am now waiting for some good news to emerge , wait for the price to rise, and then sell, and move swiftly (hopefully within months ) to the next candidate . Centamin is a share that you should making stealth moves in and out of in the shortest possible time .. it is not a share to buy and hold forever. It has lost 50% of its share price over the past 11 years (excluding dividends)
Having read through all of the posts on this thread , the most pertinent question to ask , was posed by goldgnome which is where are the next 1 million ounces going to come from and when.
Good luck to all. ..this represents my own opinions so DYOR

It seems my first impressions were correct ...there is, as things stand only one proven economically viable mine at present (Sukari) which only has between 10 and 12 years of productive life left , (goldgnome.. to me Sukari is one gold mine , Mr Horan thinks it's one gold mine too because he refers to Doropo as their potential second mine in their interim report )
So even though the Group has 14.3 million ounces of gold RESOURCES ( 9 milion at Sukari and 5 million at Doropo) , only 5 million of these can be classified as gold RESERVES ...which are all at Sukari which is where the 12 life of mine comes from ..
For the uninitiated this means that of the 14 million ounces of gold discovered by Cetamin, only 5 million of that can be extracted PROFITABLY.
Yes of course , they maybe be able to unlock more mining reserves as time progresses , but at present , Doropo is the only area with possible potential , and they won't know whether it is or not until Quarter 2 of 2022 after the results of the feasibility study becomes available. Remember that the prospect for Balti West has already been ruled out of future plans due to them not being economically viable.
The worrying thing is that this time last year , there were supposed to be 7 million ounces of gold RESERVES at Sukari , but that has now been revised downwards to 5 million even though only 0.,5 million was natural depletion due to production .. that doesn't inspire confidence in the management team ..you also have to search closely within the 230 page annual report to unearth that .
Even though there will undoubtedly be new gold discoveries , the conversion of them into realised EPS in the Financial Statements will be many years away , and stockmarkets are more concerned with the here and now , rather than years into the future.
A sobering thought .

I do take your point though and my comments are quite contrarian to the optimists , but we all have stakes here, and it always pays to be on the cautious side.

I am not a shorter Mr Bond any more than you are a trol so feel free to enlighten me and others on this board with your wisdom.

As much as I am not seeking to be pessimistic here , it does help to take a more candid assessment .
As things stand , there is only one proven mine which is progressing towards the end of its cash flow phase . A 7% divi over the remaining 10 to 12 year remaining life of the current mine doesn't even recover the current share price .
Either Doropo or the exploration of land in the Arabian Nubian yield has to produce more positive news than appears the case at present .
If it does so, then the share price will rocket upwards, if it doesn't, and pretty soon , then further declines are inevitable at some point . Other considerations are of course future gold prices and for sterling holders, exchange rate between the £ and $
More informed views on future prospects welcomed

gjsrg. Yes I saw that ..but the company seem to be underplaying this in their accounts and annual report , so at this stage it's just a future speculative play ?
Why , are things at a more advanced stage than I have suggested ?

Sorry I posted the 12 year life of mine remark on the paper loss thread

Ah ok gold. I have got you now. Am I right about the single mine with 12 years of reserves available ?

Yes we all are nursing losses, although I entered at £1.03. The thing that worries me most is that the single mine they have only has a 12 year lifespan ..with no proven prospects on the horizon ..on this basis its surely a speculative share. .A dividend yield of nearly 7% won't compensate for a share that could be valued at zero within 12 years unless the licences yield fruit or in this case Gold ..or have I got something wrong ? Whatever the answer , this is still a speculative share and buy and hold forever is foolhardy. I am looking to make a stealth move , in and hopefully out with a 35% profit maybe and as quickly as possible given its fundamental resources weakness

Wow ..quite a bleak picture you present ..you are probably right in all of your assertions apart from the share price ..this will act on momentum and at the moment it is still downwards although less so