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Don’t know if already posted but the update from FinnCap was very bullish this morning:

“Synairgen’s announcement that SNG001 is to be included in the US government’s NIAID-funded outpatient Phase II/III ACTIV-2 platform trial is a massive milestone and strong endorsement of the potential value of SNG001. It clearly recognises the value of the Phase II data (SG016) presented in 2020 and the potential to reduce the risk of virus transmission during hospital visits and the pressures on healthcare systems. With first data potentially available in Q2 2021, and the outside prospect of EUA approval on the back of positive Phase II data (as was case with Lilly), we increase target price to 505p; the future upside from there being dependent on clinical success and ability to supply SNG001. The company remains determined to supply c.100,000 treatments per month, implying potential monthly sales of c.$250m.”

Their view of a 70% chance of commercial success is also very high for a pharma trial.
GLA

Signs of a reversal to the upside? It may be due soon, BGF has been selling to reduce to their target holding levels, I don’t think they plan to sell out completely and may be done now.
Purely on a valuation basis this looks very attractive now:
- Share price around 40p is at the same level it was in April 2020!
- low market cap compared to peers
- low shares in issue means overshoot to the downside/upside
- regulatory approvals will come eventually
- testing products are not exposed to covid testing only

Over on ASX the update says an announcement a out the acquisition will be within 5 working days or earlier.
Interesting to note that XST & SGC both went into a halt on ASX too overnight pending news on an acquisition and a material transaction. I know these two have been linked with RMP before (related to Borba), it could be a coincidence, but as RMP, XST and SGC all in a halt at the same time means there is a good chance there is something related here..

well that is indeed a timely update, I was prepared for a long wait here, should be an interesting day of trading tomorrow. I’m assuming the AIM listing will continue trading tomorrow.

Sir Holgate is correct in questioning the strategy of the Recovery trial, it’s focus is on existing off-the-shelf medicines that more often than not are found to be ineffective thereby wasting precious clinical trial resource in an already crowded space. The priority should perhaps be on novel covid specific treatments that show strong preventative potential. I wonder if SNG will be included in the Recovery trial now? Probably not, as SNG has already done all the heavy lifting and as mentioned there is plenty of global interest, going alone will mean more control over the commercialisation.

As announced in the last RNS just before Christmas, initiation of the first SG018 trial sites in the UK began.
I would expect this to take at least a couple of weeks which would involve the SIV and other protocols before recruitment begins. Allowing for the holiday period, this may have taken longer. I’m expecting the pivotal phase III trial to commence next week in the UK and other global sites in parallel shortly afterwards. Remember this trial is not being managed by the Synairgen team as before in Phase II (which perhaps allowed for more flexibility) but Parexel Biotech who are the global leaders in this field and they do things properly following all the trial protocols. As many of you I also wish things are progressing much quicker here given the circumstances but these things take time to set up so that the trial runs successfully.

On the topic of regulation, which has been reported in recent weeks, I don’t see this as a negative but in fact a positive, crypto regulation will mean a transfer of assets from anonymous criminal activity (which I think is over exaggerated anyway) to established institutions, funds and ETFs. In fact this ‘transfer’ is likely already happening and will only make crypto assets such as BTC more attractive to the investment industry.

As in any ball market there comes a time when a mergers and acquisition activity begins, this has not started yet in the crypto mining sector, but there is a good likelihood next year. As the sector matures leaders will emerge by taking over smaller competitors as they start chasing higher performance and efficiency. Argo with it’s current low valuation may become a prime candidate for takeover which is why I think the price will continue to appreciate. We are already seeing a scarcity of supply in mining hardware with long lead times and the easiest way to increase capacity is to take-over already established efficient operators. Whether Argo becomes a predator or succumb to a larger rival remains to be seen.

Some on here, myself included, have argued that the LSE main market has held back ARB and a listing on a US market will close the huge valuation gap with ARB’s direct peers who are on valuations as high as $1Bn. While this is coming together now, don’t be surprised to see the London listing leading the charge late on. After all Argo is the ONLY serious bitcoin play listed on the London market (itself quite staggering) and should therefore command a big premium.

ARB already trade on the OTC Pink Open Market, which is the default market while companies apply and wait for OTC venture market (OTCQB). Once ARB is on OTCQB this will open the doors to a new wave of money that do not trade the Pink market.

The anticipated ARB re-rate is finally here and should run well into the new year. The city boys are not even back at their desks yet. House broker FinnCap’s 95p upside case is now looking a bit more realistic. Well done LT holders.

With the US markets indicating a current valuation on ARB of 65p-85p, it looks like an interesting week ahead. I don’t know about OTC markets, I would think it’s normally quite volatile due to liquidity but today’s trading volume is very encouraging (approx 1m shares traded already)

Quite a few promising update from the annual report, main points I picked up on:
- Glenover water licence decision expected shortly which is the final hurdle for the mining rights
- Once mining rights are obtained deals can be finally done on this project
- Star zinc finalising plans to bring project into production during Q1/21
- currently identifying drilling targets in Botswana copper licences

Who remembers the proposed Hive strategic deal in May 2019? It didn’t happen in the end, change of direction for ARB, new CEO etc.
At the time this was Hive’s view:
Frank Holmes, Chairman and Chief Executive of Hive, said: "In our analyses Argo is significantly undervalued. We are excited about this strategic partnership and investment.“
I wonder if Hive still has the same view? Hive are mainly a ETH miner that needs to get more into BTC mining.

The smart money taking some profits from RIOT, MARA, HIVE and investing it in ARB

Good post Morpheuz comparing future EH of some peers, some big further gains in RIOT (+30%) and Bitfarms (+50%) today after announcing the new machine orders. In fact RIOT has made $1Bn market cap today!! Staggering when compared to ARB’s lowly £40m current valuation.
ARB will have approx 1.1EH from Feb 21 on a high efficiency and a further 450PH (est) from it’s Mining Management agreement in March 21. That’s right up there and ARB will have a head start.
Looking at some of todays big trades 1m, 0.5m, 0.5m reported late, they were sales (judging by the time of transaction). Looks like a seller is keeping the price from really climbing...

Looking at the price action since Jul/Aug, ARB has had a very close correlation with the price of BTC where both have gone up around 150%
Most other bitcoin miners have broken out of any direct BTC correlation and have hugely surpassed it by a substantial factor (approx):
DMGI 800%
HIVE 550%
RIOT 400%
MARA 400%
HUT 300%
I think ARB is on the verge of breaking out of it’s BTC correlation and should outperform.

If the cover is so shallow in this area would it not have been subject to historic drilling? I can’t find the geo diagrams on GGP’s website for the Scallywag and Rudall project any more but I did see something a couple of weeks ago indicating some historic drill holes in the area.

Only a matter of time before institutional investors and hedge funds start to take stakes in bitcoin mining companies. ARB will naturally be a good fit for UK based Ruffer Investment. There has been a growing trend in institutional money investing directly in their own mining set-ups (run by 3rd companies) but this is getting more difficult as mining equipment suppliers such as Bitmain have sold out and pre-orders are offered only for late 2021 now.

Expect a mention about the trial by Parexel Biotech once the 1st patient is recruited, good coverage for potential US investor audience.