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I’m adding at these levels. I think a seller is still not quite finished, it might dip a bit more but I think the risk of missing the upside is high and not worth trying to exactly time a bottom.

Also there’s only a few more trading days left for tax loss selling.

Yep it’s there, it was reported late as the MM’s always do this for their larger trades. Look at the trades for ‘Monday’ and you’ll see it, the last one of the day, it was traded at 13:50 on the 1st March. Once the sells dry up this will recover, use it as an opportunity to load up.

Possibly the persistent seller we have seen over the past few weeks has been cleared on Friday? A single large trade of 665,117 shares was made on Friday at 13:50.

If the selling pressure is over we should see buyers retuning.

Modest trades are moving this up and down, I suspect today’s dip below 30 might be a bottoming tail and we might even finish in positive territory. There are buyers at this level. I can’t say if the seller has finished but this will rise quickly after we have net buying, then fomo will return.

Exactly the same happens to other AIM shares currently, MM’s are running it down and up. For example Ensilica (ENSI), this was sold off from 75p levels to just below 30p in a matter of weeks and then just as quickly it bounced back to 70p, no news caused the drop, just the MM selling down a largish position.

After months of sideways action between 17.5p and 21.5p could this be a next leg up?

Great post Deeko19, 2024 has real potential and I’m patiently waiting to see how it unfolds for LBE, major catalysts, firstly in Norway, the JV with JAPEX has to deliver something significant, they have the funds available. Worth noting that JAPEX are having a very good year and their shareprice has hit record levels, lets hope that some of that confidence gets passed down with a bold acquisition.

Then there’s the Malaysia block that has the size and potential to get the majors interested, a JV with a major player will add significant value for a £10m company.

From trades it looks like the seller is still offloading with a few trades of approx £10k, just like the past few weeks. Provides a good opportunity to buy.

I’m anticipating that the Partnering for the XF-73 nasal phase III trial will be finalised in H1, there’s no point trying to guess the exact timeframe as it could be anytime, my view is that there has been ongoing discussions with multiple potential partners and the best deal is being formed. Chris Tovey will be negotiating with a strong hand, there’s no point rushing it through. The FDA and EMA have both reviewed the phase 3 design and a regulatory pathway to approval has been outlined, this is valuable and a strong plus in negotiations. I’m assuming it will be a US trial but equally possible to be a global trial.

So who are the big players that are potential partners? the following 8 are research-based pharmaceutical companies that are already proactive in AMR : (GSK, Johnson & Johnson, MSD, Novartis, Otsuka, Pfizer, Sanofi, Shionogi).

GSK and Pfizer already have anti infective and antimicrobial pipelines and would be a good fit. The others would also be very keen to develop a product that prevents infection and have the ability to fund development.

In fact it can also be a government sponsored program that can provide the funding, that’s also a possibility.

I can see more than 1 deal this year, not just for XF Nasal but also for XF Dermal.

Recovery may be just as swift as the recent pullback. I would think the action over at Sondrel has woken some people up to this as they both operate in the field of ASIC chip design

It's in the interest of all parties, particularly Sebela to complete the clinical trials as soon as possible. If they commercialize NTCD-M3 ahead of the competing products in development they will capitalise on the commercial opportunity, so I'm of the view this will gather momentum in H2.

However, the bigger prize is of course the XF-73 platform, DEST are on the verge of a deal for XF-73 nasal phase-3, likely with a major industry player.

While XF-73 dermal is also in play now for a clinical trial - possibly in partnership with another pharma major? It's already got links to research bodies so perhaps a grant may also be a route to a trial.

It’s not necessarily the last RNS that triggered a seller, It’s just sometimes funds need to rebalance their portfolios.

The RNS was indeed positive but some may have perceived the possibility of a bridging phase 2 trial by Sebela as a delay. This might not even happen as the RNS stated that Sebela are evaluating it and MAY decide to run a bridging phase 2 before doing the phase 3. I think they might in fact evaluate it and then go into phase 3 after doing a simple test to show equivalence as there is already an FDA agreement in place for exactly this reason. (DEST presentation 2023):

Process development ongoing to produce oral capsule product for Phase 3

— FDA agreed to simple disintegration test to demonstrate equivalence

between Phase 2 and Phase 3 product

— Expected to have capsules ready for Phase 3 H2 2023

There’s no really big holders, the largest one is under 6% and others are around 3-5 % so if one of these is selling out then it’s likely between 3-6 million shares to sell and that’s not exactly a huge amount but it puts pressure on the shareprice.

Maybe the Hong Kong fund, maybe one of the Brit funds, just guessing.

Equally if we get large buyers then the reverse will happen, it’s just how it works.

Been a holder for quite some time and I continue to do so and have been adding to my position.

There’s obviously a seller and this is what happens until they offload, not knowing who’s selling makes timing the bottom just a guess but I’m confident it will turn.

There’s no bad news otherwise the company would have to notify so any speculation just scares holders into selling out.

The early Jan Business Update is what matters and the CEO clearly stated DEST are in a great position having discussions with a number of potential companies for partnering it’s lead product to maximise value for shareholders. Cash runway until Q1 2025.

Norway is in a prime position for the supply of gas to Europe for decades. The demand is solid and endless, now it’s just a matter of finding and producing more. LBE can be in a sweet spot if they make the right deals and have some luck in exploration.

Russia is out of the equation for decades through Putin’s mistakes and arrogance.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-swaps-russia-norway-gas-supply-dependence-2023-12-21/

Quite right, Berenberg just raised target, sees further upside and 14% discount to NAV as buy opportunity

Licence awards are out today, I guess we’ll see an RNS tomorrow about the licence for Longboat, it looks like it’s a part in one licence, hope it’s a good one.

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/62-new-production-licences-offered-in-the-apa-2023-licensing-round/id3021963/

Awards of licences are due soon, maybe this week but more likely early next week around 9th Jan.

Could see some decent awards for Longboat Japex Norge.

https://www.sodir.no/en/whats-new/news/general-news/2023/apa-2023-still-significant-interest-for-exploration-in-mature-areas/

200% above today’s actual share price

Why is the price traded showing as 1.5p for this 30m trade?

Don’t forget results of this year’s APA 2023 licensing rounds will be announced in early Jan next year.

I would expect LBE will get some decent blocks as the new partnership Longboat JAPEX Norge AS is stronger in both departments technically and financially, together with experience, all the criteria that Norway consider when making the awards.

The area is expanded this year too.

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/applicant-for-production-licenses-on-the-norwegian-continental-shelf/id2992409/