Member Info for Canary78

Watch Good Morning Britain at 8:30 today. There might be something about booking summer vacation.

Thanks livepari4 and Robbyw.

It doesn't look very fair to me but if this is how market calculates it, I'm fine with it.
Based on your responses I can see some room for sp to grow this year.

Watching Good Morning Britain. They just said that there is a possibility of another covid breakout as vaccines and vaccine roll out are colour blind and not focus on ethnic minorities, who are less immune to the virus.

I wonder if it will affect sp today.

Could you help me understand why I should multiply current sp by 1.5 or pre-covid by 0.67?

My hopefully incorrect understanding is that, we don't replace 2 shares with 3 shares, we add 3 shares to existing 2. So from old 2 shares, we have new 5. 2 shares out of 5 are 40%.
40% of 630 is 252. This is how I got to my number.

Could you help me understand why I should multiply current sp by 1.5 or pre-covid by 0.67?

My hopefully incorrect understanding is that, we don't replace 2 shares with 3 shares, we add 3 shares to existing 2. So from old 2 shares, we have new 5. 2 shares out of 5 are 40%.
40% of 630 is 252. This is how I got to my number.

Teddy100: you are one of the more optimistic ones here, about IAG.

As I mentioned before I'm in at 203, so currently on the good profit side. I'm trying to gather some good arguments why would IAG go beyond 220 before April or even summer. Do you mind providing some?

I'm currently considering closing my position with a small profit and possibly coming back early April for these reasons:
1. IAG currently overvalued/ahead of itself, looking at market cap/share price from before covid 630, then adding the dilution (3 new shares for every existing 2) it would give me 250 if I'm correct. So if IAG is making same profit as in 2019, it should be valued around 250. IAG is currently nowhere, losing probably more money than Q4 2020 and not expecting profits in 2021, so not even worth 220?
2. Based on historical performance, sp should be slowly correcting itself back to probably 185. I Based this on the fact that after previous rallies to 175, sp would still drop back to 140.
3. Flying is not expected to have any significant pick up for several months. IAG not planning to stand up the entire fleet for the summer but very slowly increase flying with a lot of aircraft left in storage this year.
4. A lot higher possibility of bad news affecting sp down vs good news affecting sp up.
5. Anywhere close to 300 seems very very unlikely this year.

So Is there enough positive arguments to counter the above?
1. I know IAG is traded on sentiment and news but is it enough to get it to 250+?
2. IAG did some good work during covid and possibly could emerge stronger with weaker competition. This is true but what about othet airlines getting huge packages from their governments?
3. Everything above is assuming that recovery goes to plan, if anything fails then sp collapses as fast as it went up.

Could somebody explain why the gap is important here?
Especially the 150, why would stock go back to a level from weeks ago, just because there is a small gap?
I thought it's only for day trading?

A bit from amateurs, as I'm one of them.

For the last two weeks, I was hoping for this to drop back, at least to high 170s, so I can buy back in and not lose a lot for selling at 170.
All amateurs know, don't buy on top, buy when it's down.
So if you missed the boat below 170 and waited until it was above 200, now it's a very difficult decision to buy on top of the recent huge hike up. I think (short term)the risk is high, especially with recent pull back, which could indicate a temporary ceiling at 220. This means a lot of people will not buy now and wait, that then means it could oscillate between 200-215 And be slowly dropping until next batch of great news (with possible temporary big dip).

On the other hand, if it will keep riding the momentum and go past 220 by some margin, as there is lack of bad news, people hoping for a significant drop would truly miss the boat there.

A lot of people locked in with those shares for months if not sold out yet, would take profit now. Looks like 200-210 could be new baseline, so if it goes back up to 210+ a lot of amateurs like me would take profit. I would sell probably at least half of my holding (If I still had it of course) and wait to see what's going to happen.

So me buying back in above 200 is very risky, I do have a little bit in my back pocket to top up on significant drop though, so not completely all in hoping for the best.

As you can see, total amateurs see risks here. This stock moved up on summer dreams, so we need big news again. This might not come until opening schools is successful, until this time stock has plenty of reason to drop.

I think a lot of people here saying 150 are those who missed the boat a little bit and want back in but it's too risky for them to do it now.

I really appteciate posts from people, who share all news they found, describe current situation backed up by some fundamentals and news, people who can interpret graphs and share some info on news levels, resistance etc. what graph is predicting. Please keep it up.

This is VERY useful for amateurs like me, I can then be more confident about my decisions.

The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett.

arms999: I was down almost a year, started buying when it first dropped, then it was a letter of sinking everything I have to get the average down.
Now, a year later, when all this stress and patience was supposed to pay off, I sold it right before it went up.
I still can't believe it.

Now I can only hope, it will go up.

I had a chain of very bad decisions in the past two weeks.
Sold IAG at 170, as not expecting this rise based on summer dreams hype.
Invested in ridicules stocks with a loss.
Didn't think this will go up so high.
Now I'm back in at 203.

If you look at IAG shares in Nov/Dec last year, this behaviour is almost identical. If it follows the same pattern, it should bounce back.
Of course all depends on news...
If the summer hype and good news will not continue, it could eventually drop to 185 and then who knows.
I'm struggling to see a reason to go above 220 in today's situation. We need to start seeing some evidence of airlines picking up traffic and restrictions subsiding.
As you remember BA was planning to get the fleet ready for Christmas and January but after vaccine announcement hike, shares still dropped significantly in mid December, can't remember if there was a reason for it.

So, I'm a bit nervous with my investment at 203, I definitely see the long term potential but could we see more significant drops in the next weeks?

What do you think?

Ok, made a decision, I'm out

I think a lot of people who bought for more than 1k above 40p or even 30p are probably already out.
What are the chances of it going up to these levels even on good news? What are the chances of KNB dropping further?
Assuming KNB is successful, what are the chances of it getting close to 50p again in 12 months?
These are all the questions I keep asking myself.
I still have substantial amount of money in it unfortunately, to get the average down, you would have to put another substantial amount into it, which is unlikely and I wouldn't do, at least today.
Based on that, I think that people who invested a lot, especially above 30 are probably gone already, investing money they recovered to recover some loses.

The biggest question is, where is the bottom, if it's around 15p, I might be able to hang on, if it's below 10, than I should recover the rest of my money now.
I can't decide.
Maybe one of you would have some info to share, why it will or will not be 10 or 15p in a week?

HappyInvestor100 - one would think KNB shares should be valued higher as the company already has some contracts signed and is in cooperation with some big companies in this sector. Also it's a lot more advanced with products, closer to maybe making money.
Is there also less shares on the market for Kanabo?

CBX has more cash but also in earlier stage where they need more cash, I'm not sure if they achieved anything yet. So CBX is more smokes and mirrors, with Beckham, who might not even be aware that his company bought little bit of shares in CBX.

If I would apply my logic, I would think that KNB should be worth significantly more at the moment.

What are you thoughts?

I wonder at what time was that released yesterday, if it would align with yesterday's 12 o'clock slight shift up, this would mean, gains from this are already in the current price.

The news about Kanabo landing a contract from last week also elevated price a few points but only for a brief moment.

It seems that nothing is able to stop this fall, the question is where is the bottom.

I'm still holding with big paper loss, so would really like at least the fall to stop but it's turning into a dream now.

CBX might be pulling it down.

I'm a total noob and I've proven my inexperience but believe in this sector so currently hold KNB and CBX.

I'm a bit worried here and would like to confirm my way of thinking before I take a huge loss.

Looking at the list of SUCCESSFUL IPOs found via Google, their share price goes up usually around 100% on the offer price within a year.
Question, should we use 6.5p as this offer price?
Now, if we would assume it will be successful, theoretically after one year share price could be at 13p?
To get it to even today's price, it's 270% if my calculation is correct.

Looking at the above and some statistics known to you, how likely are we to see 30p again?

Also, it's likely that it will keep going down, is it?

Ok,thanks Fallingknife1

Hi Everyone,

I don't post at all but this is my first IPO and I'm struggling to understand what's going on.
What does it mean, if at the same moment, I can sell for 14.8 and buy for 14.7. Does it make sense?
Earlier today I could sell but couldn't buy and price wasn't going up.
I read some conspiracy theories here but surely this would be picked up by some clever software automatically and authorities would know about it reacted.