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Oops cant buy.
Today I am gambling £2k. I think it will survive.
My previouspost was truncated for being too long. Here are the tlast two paragraphs again: In my opinion the new Chief exec knows the market much better than the previous one, while the previous guy’s talks were very generic and could apply to any company the new guy’s is more company specific. In the half year result apart from the figures the specific words (vague) will be used to allow amending their strategy due few days later after observing the market reaction.
I have been hearing some rumours in past couple of weeks, I haven’t stated anything so far as they were coming from one source each, but the same rumours are now coming from other sources. I thought it might be worth sharing it. 1) Take Over: this has been mention many times, in opinion this is not based on information it is only based on guess, because there were approaches last year and they were in the region of 150p, therefore the same people could grab it for much cheaper. There is no base to this and only a common sense or a logical conclusion. The other reason take over is being mentioned is wishful thinking, people who invested in this company were hoping this will happen and they could make a lot of money from it, they still carry the same hope. I am not saying this is not a possibility but what I am saying is that the rumours at present are baseless. The new Chief Exec said (in Dec 2011) that the company will become attractive for take over between 9 to 12months. The potential bidder will wait and see what plans the new board brings and potentially do the hard work for them. I don’t think there is one on the table at the moment 2) Recovery of written off money: Mouchel had written off £30m (if I remember correctly) in the Middle East following mis-management of contracts (allowing the invoices to reach millions without being paid). One reason why Mouchel is not intending to sell ME branch ( it was mentioned that it was for sale) is that the new chief exec has 20 years experience in the ME and he believes that the projects were not managed properly and Mouchel is to blame ( to large extent) for the £30m loss. I was always thinking that some of the money may be recovered. This rumour says exactly that, part of the money which was written off is recovered, figure of few million have been mentioned (some one posted here also about £10m). I think there is some truth to this rumour. Will it be mentioned in the half year results is yet to be seen? 3) Area 10 contract: two posts ago I spoke about two major bids, Area 10 and Sheffield PFI. This rumour states that EnterpriseMouchel has secured this contract, one of the sources of this rumour works for a competitor. The announcement is imminent. 4) Sheffield PFI: this rumour says that Carillion-Mouchel has secured this contract due for announcement mid April. Political reasons have been mentioned for the potential win. These are the reasons, apart from what I said about half year results two posts ago, for my top up. Only one or two of the rumours need to be correct for a price boost. In my opinion the new Chief exec knows the market much better than the previous one, while the previous guy’s talks were very generic and could apply to any company the new guy’s is more company specific. In the half year result apart from the figures the specific words (vague) will be used to allow amending their strategy due few days later after
Base on what I stated in the last post, I think it is time to Top Up!
JohnUK, can you point out which piece of info is incorrect? and what is the correct info?
I am not sure how much people are aware of the dates for important announcements. But here is a brief list of dates for those who don't know and care (may be because they invest in this company). Mouchel's half year results will be announced on 29th March 2012 ( the rsults are likely to be good), 2nd of April will be the date when the Chief Exec will announce his strategy and plan. The company has gone through a lot of cost cutting exercise (including sub-letting some buildings). They are winning jobs as you may have seen in the previous posts. The big contracts, Area 10 and Shefield PFI. Atkins and Skanska are given area 2 (following some issues with the tender of one of the other bidders). This contractor is also bidding for area 10 which Mouchel and Enterprise are bidding for. Whether the HA will discount them from the list (giving EnterpriseMouchel a better chance) is to be seen. As for Shefield the contract award has been delayed few time and the latest is that it will be awarded end of April. Will the company exercise the rights issue? We have to wait and see ( I doubt this at present as the company is still winning contracts). Why are there two separate dates for the half year results and the strategy announcement? Is that one will affect the market positively and the other negative and they want to balance it or are they both good news and the board wants to double lift the share price. I think it is the second one. On another note the share prices will probably rise til the day before 29th and what ever happens after is yet to be seen. I will probably top up the week before and sell the day before.
I apologies for posting a comment with no back up. Please don't rely on it!
There will be a big jump soon!
Any news from the AGM anyone?
just a correction to MaoWombat's date the AGM is on 31st of Jan.
There seems to be some positive news following Bournmouths handing over at last but no change in Share Price! http://www.cnplus.co.uk/mouchel-boost-as-bournemouth-hands-over-finance-dept/8624539.article http://www.lgcplus.com/mouchel-deal-given-go-ahead/5039913.article
On 6 January, Bournemouth Borough Council agreed to transfer a further two services to Mouchel as part of its 10-year partnership. On 1 February around 100 employees from the council’s Human Resources & Organisational Development and Finance departments will move to Mouchel. This decision followed a detailed independent risk assessment based on our audited financial statements along with an impartial review of the risk management and contract governance arrangements that are already in place. Tony Williams, Mouchel’s Partnership Director in Bournemouth, said: “This is obviously great news for Mouchel and for our partnership with the council. The council’s decision to transfer additional services demonstrates its belief in Mouchel as a company as well as in our ability to provide them with great quality services that will continue to generate savings in line with our contractual obligations.” Deputy Leader of Bournemouth Council, Cllr John Beesley, said: “We have confidence that Mouchel will be able to meet their recently stated banking requirements, be able to deliver significant investment in the Finance service IT infrastructure in Bournemouth and provide HR and Payroll services to the council to the standards we are specifying in the contract. All this comes with the benefit of saving the Council £2.2 million over the life of the contract.”
http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2012/01/08/mouchel-secures-bournemouth-outsourcing-deal/
I am not too sure whether anyone has looked at this in detail but I was constantly checking Britishbulls and following the share prices. The share prices during thosed few days whether BritishBulls confirmed sell was flactuating between 5.0-5.35p and the reason was not because the bid and ask prices were changing but the announce share price (which I dont know what it is base on say a bid and ask of 5.0p and 5.35p the announce share price could be anywhere between 5 and 5.35p) was changing. Therefore the candle sticks were not reflecting a true share price movement. The Buy If today is probably also flawed based on the same logic.
It appears that a lot of people just post their hopes rather than facts. people who are losing money are stating that shares will go up people who are either out or waiting for the SP to go down further the oposite. I am not sure how this is going to benifit any one. I don't see much value in the recent posts, only arguments. The facts are: the company is winning jobs at the moment but limited to small ones, I don't think this will last very long and their balanmce sheet shows that. The company is backed by the banks til 2013 so there is time to do something about the balance sheet. The new CEO appears to know the market better but the damage may be too great to easily recover. the Rights issue? I don'y understand how it works to be honest and am not convinced that the share holders would agree. Mouchel/Carrilion are one of the two bidders for Shefield PFI which will be announce end of Jan 2012. If they are the preferred bidder (utilising carrilions liabilities) may affect the SP positively. Mouchle is bidding for Area 10 of the HA the results were supposed to be announced couple of weeks ago but apparently delayed till new year ( I doubt if they get this one). The final results announcing 65m loss has caused more problems than solved i think. One of the senior management was saying that ha the final results not been delayed they would have reported a much better results. Every time it hits alow I think that it can't go any lower and have been proved wrong many times. Buying shares in this type of company is a gamble, one has to either go for it or stay out of it until some signe of recovery show.
I think the risk takers are already in Mouchel share as far as they can afford, the people who dont take risk need to waite a bit longer to see which direction the market is moving, another couple of days will confirm the upward movement or otherwise.