Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
H1 sales E72.4m ebitda E49.4m
Outlook at H1 was full year sales >E150m and ebitda >E100m
At AGM on 29th Sept this was reiterated but did not include new DHS contract announced that day
H1 had only 3 months of trading so pre the contract a conservative forecast would be an additional E150m sales and E100m ebitda - giving full year sales cE225m and ebitda cE150m
There will be the first £150m of DHS contract this year which should add E165m and ebitda of cE130m.
Overall, a conservative for 2020 on basis of current contracts is sales of E390m and ebitda of cE280m.
I would thus be more conservative than you on the forecasts. On the valuation, with testing to be required for the foreseeable future, I would be higher. A multiple of 5x ebitda would give a share price of cEuro 20 per share, which is my target for this year.
ShaunP,
On your question re 2020 sales I would also say that your forecasts are too high. Why? The company said that it expects sales of >£150m at the H1 trading update and updated that to significantly exceed £150m at the AGM at end September. Your forecast shows sales of almost £200m at end September already - if that was the case I believe that their statement would be misleading to the downside and could not have been approved. A forecast of C£400m for full year would still be a massive increase over £70m at H1.
PC has already sold more than 400,000 games, which is £12m gross of VAT etc. Since FDEVs revenues from one game have been c£20m annually, this is a major move up. With a new game to be announced next year and PS4 launch of ED in Q2 2017, this share price is now set to go north.
This should take annual revenues up from c£20m to >£50m, with a sharp rise in profitability. FDEV has another success on its hands and the market should now start to see the potential for this company in the coming years. Short term it should rise sharply if Planet Coaster sells as well as initial indications suggest it will - i.e. at > 1 million units per annum.