RE: A few notes from the presentation.21 Feb 2023 13:42
Thanks BB2, so essentially, they used DCM material to massage the the fact that volumes are falling at Iyoni and contribute to their one and only quarterly update of increased earnings and then take two years to update the market outside of regulated publishing. Processing capacity shut down to a death and PGM rich material being recovered and processed is probably market worthy for some.
The lack of AISC standard reporting here is also problem. There's zero transparency as to what feeds and grade are actually being processed at any one location or period and at what costs. I hope the last update has opened peoples eyes to that fact that JLP is not at all free of ANY mining risks and if anything more mining risk, as they're not in control of the grade or run of the material coming to them from 3rd parties.
I'd like to assure you that my intentions are true and honest, it's just that some here think that means taking JLP out to dinner and getting her home for 10:30pm.
To me at least, it's evident that JLP is not actually that profitable. Copper stock is building because of the huge amounts of energy required to process the cobalt at sable. It's clear Roan is not performing as thought and not delivering enough material to sable continuously without running down the copper stocks. I don't agree with Leon that upgrading modular circuits whilst processing does not materially impact production. It does, it just might not be materially lower than what they have printed for H1, which isn't a boast.
PGM outpuut is falling, on target to miss even my expectations of 56k by a circa 20k shortfall and Roan will struggle to finish the year on more than 3k. Net earnings will be circa 10million USD but 2.5m of that is an unexpected outgoing for the ROAN disruption, plus whatever modular upgrades are needed post the remedial repairs.
IMO JLP is currently trading on a 25 times earnings ratio and will either need cash to increase recovery methods at roan or they'll just keep stringing everyone along until there's enough stockpile to produce a batch of profitable cobalt at sable. It's a sell from me 6.5p is a fairer price for the risk of copper not playing out as previously thought.