Member Info for Bunky1981

@NDLeicsLad - good post.

@Magnum.PI - this is the kind of news that gives me far more confidence than anything else. Cheers.

Oh I don't think there's much doubt that Hav is going to be mined and that Telfer is going to be there to process it. But Hav is not necessarily (30%) GGP. It's those sort of scenarios that I'm musing over. Maybe what I'm saying is if I put my most cynical hat on... how is somebody/anybody going to get some or all of that 30% off us before the gold starts pouring. And if it's that much of a certainty, where on earth are the ii's who should be rolling in at this point, if only at speculative weightings?

@Doublehun. I suspect there're more of us :) I dragged an old work colleage in with me. We could have bought an investment property by now with the capital (but where's the fun in that). The way I see it, if this reaches 30p by 2025 then I've averaged 25%+ annually, which in my world is a very healthy return given the alternative vanilla markets that I'm far more familiar with. I'm sure we'll look back on it fondly as an adventure. Hopefully!

@acechaser - no worries at all, I've been accused of a lot worse :)

This board has gone a bit barmy with all the conspiracy stuff though. I'm sure there are derampers here. I'm sure there are people not telling the truth about their holdings. But it does feel like every other post now is somebody accusing somebody else of being a paid stooge. If I'm honest, it's almost cult like. It's genuinely a bit creepy. No offense to Hydrogen, but his stuff towards the end read like he was having an episode. Like the mad bloke from the X-files. And... like the mad bloke from the x-files, he may well prove to have been partially correct all along. But it seems increasingly difficult to discuss anything other than "this time next year Rodney, we'll be millionaires" without being accused of working for JPM.

I'm still interested in my orginal question if anybody wants to speculate. See, for the LTH who bought in under a few pence, they're looking at their gains being hammered. So psychologically it's a different set of emotions for them. Regret, frustration, irritation for not cashing some in >30p at both themselves and various dark forces at work. But for those who bought in over the current SP, the emotions are (I believe) different. More understandly it's loss aversion, fear, concern. Capital loss is very different to pared gains... emotionally. So I think that's why somebody like me who is currently looking at paper losses, can quite reasonably be sitting here thinking, since literally nothing good has happened to the SP in the 18 months I've been invested, despite countless positive events, despite me averaging down confidently and succesfully, then all the gold in the ground in the world doesn't really offer much comfort anymore. Broker notes, the estimated worth, Telfer investments, 5% not taken up, ii's coming on board, other 100% owned irons in the fire etc etc... it all (apparently) means nothing at the moment. So if FMV is out the window for some reason, then of course I start wondering "what needs to happen for this be a near total capital loss, that never recovers". Because if I can reasonably rule out those scenarios, then that gives me confidence about my sticky hands. Hence my post above about the only two disaster outcomes I see is some sort of inflationary linked cost/funding issue, or a lowball takeover. But if there are others, then I'd like to hear them. If not, then great. Hope that explains my thinking :)

@acechaser - seriously? Even though every post I've ever made makes it quite clear that I'm signifcantly invested into six figures of cash in GGP, and am currently underwater, having been here since early 2021. I'd like nothing more than to see the SP triple tomorrow. Obviously.

Lol. I genuinely don't even understand what the conspiracy theory would even be? I'm curious. What's my nefarious goal here then, in discussing worst fears and possible outcomes? The world's gone mad.

@acechaser - are you seriously suggesting that it's a "dorothy dixer" (I had to google it) that two investors watching an AIM share being shorted into the ground, despite great looking fundamentals, are discussing the prospect of a takeover? Is it really so far fetched? What an odd comment. Honestly, this BB is hilarious sometimes.

Itsouthere - but at the moment we're heavily owned by PIs. Surely the only way NCM get to take us out for a snip is if the offer is approved. Which if they come in at something like 14p (generously doubling current SP), it would presumably be declined. So only if they continue to dilute and offer to ii's only who then are all quite happy to double their money in 12 months, would we end up getting shafted on that. I'm probably missed something, but curious to know what the "disaster" scenarios are? At the moment, I see the relevant risks as;

- further dilution and a takeover
- inflation/funding leading to increased costs etc and not getting to pouring before having to sell off/finance unfavourably

Otherwise it simply feels like a seige where we know they can't get in the walls, and we know we have enough food to last it out before the garrison arrives in 2024 to relieve us. Or have I missed something? Genuine question.

Yeah, we've been hearing that for nearly two years, but everytime I pick up one of these gold bars from the sale shelf, I come back the next week and they're selling the same gold bar for less everytime. I checked at the Customer Service counter and it turns out they only do refunds at the current price too.

@GGPThruandthru

But WOULD we actually jump 20/30%? Does anything we do that's positive actually impact the price? Would it not be fair to say that once the 60m price tag was agreed, the market should/would have priced assumption that NCM took up the 5% and we were funded? Thus giving us a similar (but not quite the same) position as if we were diluted by 500m shares and now funded? Pretty similar outcomes, no? And yet here we are, with SD'd "best case scenario" on NCM declining the 5%, back under 10p. Until the manipulation ends or abates, it just seems utterly futile to assume anything rational.

I'm grateful for all cross ramps. Are we all really that precious about it? It's how i found out about GGP... despite me currently being underwater. Not much else to talk about since the 5% figure came out. So I love all of these punts. Keep 'em coming.

Thanks for reminding us why we're all here, Bamps. Please keep it coming.

Pretty pleased with my buy at 9.7p this morning. Should get my average down to only a 40% paper loss now. lol.

@WelshFalcon

My bad, my second part should have been addressed to Spades, not you. Apologies.

@WelshFalcon - two points, if I may;

- If you find it that hard to believe that an UHNW individual doesn't have ISAs and pensions and doesn't know how to set them up, then you'd be horrified to see what I see on a daily basis. It's not uncommon at all. In fact it's very very normal. You should go around a (typical) room asking "what should I expect from an ISA at the moment" and I promise you that you will be met mostly by groans and complaints that "they're rubbish because they only pay 1%". Most people have no idea that they're simply a tax wrapper as, obviously, is a pension. I've met numerous very well paid and bright people who opted out of their workplace schemes because "I don't like pensions, they can lose money"... and didn't realise they were politely declining immediate 60% equivalent growth from their epmloyer thanks to auto-enrolemnt, or that their scheme did offer a cash fund if they were seriously that worried about market linked risk. So I find it incredibly easy to believe what Des about his friend.

- I'm sorry you had such a bad experience with an IFA. You're right, the entire industry before 2013 was very product/commission based. A lot IFAs claiming to be investment gurus which they never were and never should have pretended to be. Mind you, they did know more than the layperson. A lot has changed since RDR and while the most well known FTSE100 national advice firm is still the expection to rule, with their ad valorem charging structures and questionable business practices... there are many good IFAs out there who simply charge fixed fees and couldn't give a monkeys whether you act on their advice or not, since there is no financial incentive either way for them. Those younger guys and gals have probably spent 15 years being tarred with the same brush as the 'old guard' from the 70s, 80s and 90s.... and are probably more cynical about them than you are. An IFA should spend 90% of the meeting talking about cashflow modelling, tax avoidance, legacy planning, goals, personal objectives and priorities etc. The investment solution should be whole of market, cost efficient and frankly, a fairly brief and boring conversation. As somebody has said above, Vangaurd LS100 is a perfectly good recommendation for many long term savers. So if you're going to an IFA because you assume they have some market knowledge that nobody else has, then that's your fault.

P.S. All IFAs can compliantly and comfortably advise on AIM. It's hardly a new concept. But they're not going to be carrying out due diligence on individual positions like GGP for you. That would be nuts and a nailed on complaint for the Ombudsman who would almost certainly award in the client's favour at the expense of the IFA's Professional Indemnity cover (and therefore premiums). To start with, if you're not AIM for inheritance planning, then it's likely to just be a DIY investment and nothing to do with an IFA.

Not that any of this is relevant to me of course :D

Thank goodness somebody is here to take up Hydrogen's baton with the daily manipulation/shorting posts.

you'll be fine. Just wait until 2024.

@gymboy - my mind boggles at how somebody was sitting on a 20,000% gain and didn't sell up at least a good chunk. I'd have retired on the spot, prepaid the school fees and gone travelling for the rest of my life. I'm very jealous of your average :)

I think the reply from them was basically "that's a cool idea, we'll give it some thought".

It is a very cool idea though. I'd be up for that. So long as the SP is over 30p by then...

"Speedy is bang on. Hold your line and screw the big boys for once."

I'm not disagreeing.... but this sort of thinking has more than a passing resemblance to Gamestop posts on Reddit. Which was hilarious and massively profitable for the people who were in at the start, yet resulted in near total loss for the people who 'stuck to their guns'. I'm not saying it's the same scenario, but there's definitely a growing vibe on these boards, and pride is the most expensive and mose useless of emotions.

Is it not fair to say that there are only really two outcomes here;

1) turn your phone off and and just wait for 2024
2) takeover comes in which would presumably/hopefully be at least the broker note of 25p?

What's the disaster scenario here? (not rhetorical)