Member Info for Bunky1981

@Star

Well that's the most depressing thing I've read here in years. I'll take the calculations at face value because, while I haven't really bothered commenting in here for a while, your assessment wouldn't surprise me. a FTSE100 company. Sheesh.

The climb and market cap needed to recover from the seeminglyly endless SP drop over the last couple of years seems fanciful at best. I'm happy to hold, I'm sure it will recover. I have absolute confidence we'll be pouring and growing at some point in my lifetime. But the opportunity loss over the last few years and the next few years as it recovers, is pretty galling. I'm not personally that far underwater on the SP. A 2x for anybody with a double figure average SP, feels like 2027 as a minimum. Seeing the SP in the mid 20s would be a great result by then.

I'd love to be wrong. Just seen too many false dawns over the last couple of years. This stock has certainly been an education in AIM for me. I've traditionally stuck to the main indices, so this has been eye opening. "It's only a mistake if you don't learn from it."

GLA :)

A time for clear heads. I always think "averaging down" is a bit of a red herring and a sunk cost fallacy trap.

In reality, you either believe the stock will go up, in which case keep your existing holdings. If not, then sell them.

If you have an arbitrary sum of money available for investment (doesn't matter that it just happens to be 30% of your existing investment in a random AIM stock), then taking overall portfolio diversifcation into account, would you buy more GGP? If you would, then do it, if not, then don't.

Averaging down is only really useful if you have a specific exit price that you're trying to get below. I would be amazed if a single PI had a quantifiable exit price based on data.

What we do know is that you have less than 9 months to be able to cheer your partner up that you've made some good investments. Come on GGP! ;-) Congrats btw, I presume you'll be naming him/her Midas.

Last time they did this, everybody just sat around picking their noses and got the "super special once in a liftime price" on the open market anyway.

@Badger - I didn't ask any questions. I was simply offering possible answers to the original post.

So you agree it's option 1 then? That the wider market simply isn't aware of the opportunity here?

At the risk of attracting fire, presumably there are only a few possible explanations for this;

1 - the wider market is missing a huge opportunity that is simply not recognised

2 - something underhand and nefarious is artificially suppressing the SP

3 - the wider market does not agree that there is a "near certainty of all this happening".

Open to other suggestions, but those are the only three explanations that I can think of.

- Maybe my post appeared "clumsy" because it was actually sincere and therefore not as polished and nefarious as it could be.

- Yes I was trying to "endlessly propogate that thread". Absolutely and unapologetically I was. The only reason I haven't done so again is simply because clearly there's no appetite for negative speculation. That's fair enough. I was (and still am) absolutely amazed at the lack of negative speculation in here over the last few years.

- the "positive post" you refer to that I challenged was somebody saying something along the lines of "my negative view is that it'll take a bit longer for me to be a billionaire". Come on, you're not daft. If you asked somebody what the potential dangers are of swimming across the Channel and their answer was "The biggest risk is that I don't complete it with a new world record"... really? That's a serious answer in your mind?

- As I say, I'm not going to start that thread again. But I remain absolutely incredulous there is little to no discussion about downside risk with Newmont's recent decision. I've found this forum to be a great source of insight and information over the years. I've generally sat quietly and watched as a number of people have been absolutely mauled for not being more positive. I just didn't think the day would come where I was one of them. But hey ho, now I'm seemingly on the other side of the fence (even though I'm not), I can see why those people got so animated at the time. It's pretty annoying to be effectively shouted down with "there are no downsides to talk about, and if you keep asking about them, we're going to accuse of you having an ulterior motive". Sheesh.

Anyhoo. Cheers for the reply. I appreciate you at least taking the time to explain your position. Onwards and upwards.

@Trippy and @Redirons

I wasn't going to add to this thread, because it seems there is an overwhelming sense of positivity and that investors on this forum don't really see any concerning potential issues. But I do feel compelled to briefly reply to your comments.

"we can all envisage negative views if we want but how many negative views do you want until you’re satisfied?"

Well so far the total numer of potentially negative scenarios presented was about 1. So... yeah... more than 1.

Regardless, I'm asbolutely astonished that an investor has essentially just said that they only want to hear good news scenarios. We're all entitled to our investment approaches. Asking a forum what they feel are the potential downside scenarios are with Newmont's recent divestments plans, seems like an incredibly basic consideration. If all you want to hear is the same echo chamber that we've been sitting in for the last few years of the "blue sky and billionaires club", then bully for you. Personally, when I'm deciding whether to put further capital into a stock, I'd like to hear other's views on why that might be a bad idea. We all know why it might be a good idea. Gold, mine, profit. Got it.

Do I think it's a good investment? obivously yes, or I wouldn't be here.

Do I have a 6 figure sum of capital invested as a LTH? yes.

Do I look at the downside risk more than the potential upside gain? Yes. It's called loss aversion. It's not a new concept.

Am I somehow obliged to sit quietly in the corner and not even ask what could go wrong with the divestment of Hav/Telfer? No.

To be written off as some kind of deramper. Weird. Look at my post history. Do I sound like i'm deramping at any point in the last couple of years? Disappointing response from you both and, to be perfectly honest, slightly worrying. How many other investors have we got here won't don't want to consider potential negatives, just because it's not as much fun as positive speculation. Echo chambers are not healthy for investors. Civil and considered debate is a positive thing for any group of investors.

Anyhoo, each to their own. Onwards and upwards, as we all hope! No need to reply unless you want to. Have a good week.

@Chippy - so your genuine absolute worst case scenario is that this becomes a multi billion dollar company... but that it could take much longer than you hoped? You genuinely see no conceivable scenarios where this ends badly?

No judgement, genuine question.

@Doublehun - I put AIM up there with gambling tbh. It's not the companies themselves or their fundamentals. It's the regulator (or lack thereof) and rampant backroom dealing and unintentioanl insider trading that makes it a completely unlevel playing field. I'm not even that bothered about it. It's simply the way of the world. But so many assumptions are based on what "should" happen, that I'm always bemused there isn't more cynicism. This stock in particular is one of those. Even though there is very good reason to be positive about it too of course.

@Ace - haha, I'm trying to be brave! Hence why I'm trying to establish a disaster scenario, so I can decide to be even more brave.

@Jiffy

Thanks, good input. But I'm thinking even more disastrous in addition to that. What if this enters a protracted scenario where Hav and Telfer are effectively mothballed. GGP is bled out, assets are flogged at minimum market value or snapped up in a rescue deal by those who decide that buying it at 3p is better than exercising options at 12p . What do we reckon that looks like on the SP? Is that an impossible scenario? Hopefully. I'm certainly not claiming to have as much insight as many others. Just trying to work out my max loss tolerance for further averaging.

No, i'm not deramping. I've got 7 figures of shares and may well be buying more, despite being underwater still.

There's lots of excitement and cautious optimism (as always), but given that it is actually okay to discuss negative as well as positve outlooks on an investors' forum, I'd be grateful to explore the negatives. If it hits 6p then I'm quite likely to average down with a signficant sum. We're all investing here for a payday, but i'm more interested in the downside risk. Because the potential return will be what it will be. I'll worry about when to exit when I'm not sitting on a paper loss anymore. In the meantime, I'd genuinely prefer to lose the lot than sell.

So what's the disaster scenario here with today's news? If everything goes to the dogs, SD can't secure finance, nobody wants Telfer, funding isn't forthcoming, China invades Taiwan and a wayward ICBM lands on top of Hav... whatever it is. What do we reckon GGP's SP is worth as scrap metal? Is it even possible to be a wipeout? If somebody bought our 30% of Hav in a fire sale, would that bottom out at 3p? 1p?

It's just conjencture. I guess my thinking is that if I buy another lump at 6p, but even the most negative outlook is 3p, then I might take a bit more risk and put a bit more in. I don't know. It's just a bit of fun to hypothesise about really, so please don't get snotty or aggressive about it. i'm just interested on people's views.

@Catchme... huh?

"In addition, Newmont expects to divest the Coffee project in Canada and the Havieron project in Australia. "

Believe me, as one of the people who has to send these emails out to people... I can assure you it does not come from a position of wanting to "mollycoddle" investors. It's driven by the FCA / regulator and the litigious modern society we live in which leads to some people investing their meagre life savings into something highly speculative because "who cares, I'm never going to be able to retire anyway, so may as well got for it"... and then wanting their money back because they "didn't understand the risk". So we send those type of emails out to say "by the way, this is very volatile and not diversfied at all. It could go really badly really quickly". That way, when they lose the lot, they can't claim we didn't warn them.

It really isn't to patronise anybody and, dare I say it, has quite probably opened a few eyes and saved a few novice investors in the past :)

... I've just bought a modest lump of this after very little research. Therefore I obviously deserve to lose the lot. That's accepted.

I'm not fussed about the next 12 months. My question is, what's the 24 month sentiment? Reckon we'll be flat, mutibagging, or is it a sinking ship?

I remember that too. Although, I don't remember thinking he was mad. I just hoped he was.

Shame we can't remember, I might go and see what else he's shorting at the moment :D

It's not tree shaking if it's been a relentless decline over nearly 3 years with absolutely no indication of it turning.

Oh great, how fun! Well as and when the time comes, I'd be keen.

Hopefully it will be a little momento to remind me of why my mortgage was paid off early :)

Thanks for your work on it thus far.

I haven't come here for a while, mainly because I can't be bothered to wade through the bickering posts in order to find anything relevant to GGP. Which I have to say is quite frustrating, because I would quite like to know about any pertinent information, even if I have no intention of trading until we're pouring gold.

But I do remember sometime ago somebody started a proposal about a commemorative coin from the first pour. I'd be quite interested to know if that idea ever gained any traction. I vaguely remember somebody even put it to SD, who said it would be quite cool. So did anything come from it?

If so, is somebody somewhere creating a list of interested parties or similar? Alternatively, I've made this whole thing up in my head and have gone completely mad.

Come on now. A good day means tomorrow we dip back under 8p. You must know how it works by now.

disclaimer: I'm joking... sort of.