Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Funny if the price of oil in 2025 is affecting our value today…
Seeing that our reserves then are not even accounted for.
Our value is current production + 2 years.
Serenity is free, expansion is free and reserves for free
I think there is a small political risk in going the Eric Nutall way, once people start losing jobs and you see the high O&G prices and suddenly this guy is shouting how every penny should be distributed to shareholders before expansion. I mean 75% of FCF… in an environment we all know investment in O&G is needed. That is not something to brag about, its selfish.
Its very easy for a politician to put a big fat tax on that behaviour and get the general opinion to agree with it.
Other than that I still believe in the I3 way, expansion, dividends and a safety margin by the end of the year.
What do we expect? The recent interview made me feel it’s more likely with 700BOPD than 500 … meaning we are currently getting the production of more than 3 budgetted wells for the cost of 2.
Anyhow, this must be the cheapest oiler out there right now
Funny how you talk about buyout but noone mentions whitecaps recent acquisition only days old, 32000BOEPD for 1,9 Billion CAD. 30% liquids (NGL/condensate)
So I would say our canadian play is ”worth” 3/4ths of that in a buyout perspective at least since we have a better mix.
So roughly 3 times todays value would be the lowest buyout offer to expect.
It is also good for the market that the bigger fish come active to show the true value of things
Cheapest oiler on the market and you want good news ;) we just need the re-rating.
As MT pointed out look at Ptal when Castillo was elected. All we need is time
No worries,
To be clear I wouldn’t say there is no FCF in I3 at all, Just that it isn’t enough for 10% of the company as of today. I rather have a progressively higher dividend.
I think Arrow exploration is the better South America play. Their expansion is really on point, total drill to market within 30-40 days. Roughly 2000 BOE of which 1500 is colombian light oil, (assuming last drill gives 500 BOPD at least) and an Mcap less than 1/10 of Ptal.
And the drill keeps going.
Liquidity wise they get paid directly instead of the long wait times that Ptal has with their pipeline.
Looking at Peru we know the drill with leftist presidents, a lot of barking to begin with then nothing happens. At least that is my take on the political risk of Colombia.
On that note, I think people overestimate I3E FCF Numbers quite a lot.
I don’t see us capable of a 10% share buyback anytime soon. My calculus says the major part of the capital plan announced in december has been used up and the q1 revenues around 66 MUSD in Q1 and I predict 91 MUSD in Q2 (roughly 19500 BOEPD, it has been a lot of rain in the area I heard, using the ratios in the investment deck, 17% oil, 31% NGL and 52% gas)
Put in some loss on hedges and such and there isn’t enough for a magical 10% buyback appearing
And I am crazy bullish about this company
There are three major benefits to go with I3E above PTAL.
1. Serenity drill not priced in at all.
2. No debt to talk off, also no major wait time for liquidity (wasnt ptal paid for oil entering the pipeline late 2020 just recently) watch the fcf and a lot of the capital is locked up.
3, geographical risks. Ptal is one Field in the middle of the peruvian djungle. Recent occupations but also earthquakes are common. Say a food crisis occurs not even connected with oil? They know now that occupying the wells gives benefits, what makes you so sure it won’t happen again.
Put the province of alberta in the other side, I3 have about 1000 wells and facilities, if one goes down it barely shows
I3 is the safe bet for sure
What is going on here, a massive re-rating bound to happen.
Investors received one warrant for every two new common shares, exercisable at C$0.15282 per new common share for 24 months from the AIM admission date (October 25, 2021).
It isn’t very clear in these statements that we are getting 9p in cash for every exercised share this way. Reading it almost make you think they get shares for free
Relax, if the swedish green party survives the election this fall I will eat my hat.
Closing 2 perfectly ran nuclear reactors early is kind of punishing today, not to mention the free wildling in our Riksdag that is currently blocking our nato agreement all by herself. (Kurdish lefty)
Some people just want the world to burn
I think this winter we will see actual ”no gas” signs put up if this keeps up.
Biden is crazy to go to war against the companies holding the solution. Soon we might see governments being the only one able to start up the next ”super project” if this keeps up.
No sane market oiler would touch them anyway.
Putins war on Ukraine might overthrow so many governments in the western World that I start to think that is his actual goal of the war to begin with.
A recession is not a solution to the energy crisis, it just kicks on the poor.
I3 is my safe zone, alberta is very pro oil and capex to returns is so short
For me I3 really is the safest play out there, its’ like a supersavings account (dividend, safe canada expansion) with a lottery ticket win for free included (serenity drill)
That being said I really recommend looking at the full scope of the oil market, cheapest oil companies are located in South America with the higher risk of course (Colombia election is one)
I like Frontera energy too but if I remember correctly they had quite a bit of debt to repay still.
Btw the Arrow exploration forum on ADvFN is incredible ”Mount Teide” regularily gives more of a global oil forecast, for one of the refinery margins which he mentioned early may. Buying into PBF then would be 25-30% up today.
As I have indicated in the past I think we are just in the beginning. Thus I am kind of into expansionist oil companies with a small revenue already.
So in that scope I totally approve of I3 expansion of capex this year.
My other favorites are Arrow exploration (small cap in ”one new well every month” phase in Colombia), First Helium (struck oil in one or two of their new wells funding the whole Helium expansion plan pretty much, Helium play without the guaranteed dilution)
Other than that I think Petrotal similar to I3 is very undervalued (however a bit more understandable due to the issues with the locals).
I also would like to open my eyes at the oil tanker industry, eyeing STNG,IMPP a big no-go zone for the last 15 years but looks very promising now, there are no new tankers being built and shipyards are busy with other types of vessels (LNG, containers etc)
And refineries like PBF. the whole industry is booming and not just producers