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char333,
Re your questions:
#1 No vaccine
#2 Still a huge number of cases
#3 Still a lot of deaths.
#4 No Brexit, well there never will be.
#5 Ongoing tensions within oil producers, Russia , Saudi, OPEC, etc .
#6 Trump v China
#7 Trump v everyone who stands up to him
#8 Still huge macro problems in oil, especially in USA.
The present position:
#1, #2 and #3 are temporary.
#4 Brexit has taken place. The ? Is no deal.
#5 This is the case
#6 and #7 Wait until 3rd November and see....
#8 This is the case.
I very, very much doubt it! For my myriad sins, I have the great misfortune to live one and a half miles away from a village that is a ExReb hotspot! Middle class intellectuals who have downsized from the Home Counties to the far south west of Cornwall. What you are saying is a group of these hair shirt enthusiasts (it's others who will have to don the hair shirts – not them!) are undertaking a massive short of what used to be the FTSE's leading company by market cap. They'd have to do this via CFDs and highly levered ones at that. They just don't have the assets to back up such a huge gamble.
You wouldn't be feeling the same way if you'd paid 1890 as I did!
RDS was an institutional favourite. Institutions have huge holdings. Selling at these levels would result in huge losses. Institutions are sitting this out through COVID-19. A lot of the greening of RDS is long term. The CEO is talking in terms of 2050 – 30 years away. IF the share price begins to go up, many shareholders will sell out their holdings at or near their own price point (what they paid for the shares). This will include Moi!
I am not surprised that some posts contain evidence of anger given that many of us are sitting on huge paper losses. For myself, the averaged cost of my “B” shares (including stockbroker charges and Stamp Duty) is £18.90 so my shares have lost about half their value and everybody reading this will know the %age reduction in my dividends! Many of us are not hugely wealthy and many of us (including myself) are retired and/or are no longer working and rely to a significant extent of the Shell dividend for our income.
For those of us feeling sorry for ourselves I would suggest we consider the many who do not own shares in any companies, don't have savings and have lost their jobs through no fault of their own and are living in rented accommodation and are wondering, “What the [redacted] do I do now?”
Like everybody here, I have to face the following FACTS:
#1: None of us actually know what the future holds. All we can do is guess. I challenge anyone to say that they knew that COVID-19 was coming! By the way, IF any of us could foretell the future accurately, my I remind all of the accompanying curse to this ability: The unwanted ability to always know the day, date, time and the precise circumstances of one's own death!
#2: Oil shares/stocks are in comparison with other shares are like petroleum spirit itself, volatile. For instance, the FT reports that from 20 analysts proffering 12 month price targets for RDS have a median target of 1,498.87, with a high estimate of 3,071.59 and a low estimate of 1,040.19.
#3: Stock markets are driven by two things: Greed and Fear.
It seems that you are taking a short term attitude and using money you need and presumably cannot afford to loose. Investing in shares is supposed to be a long term thing. My family have held LLOY since 1922. The averaged stock cost of the family holding is now 76 pence. And you are worrying about small movements around the mid twenties? Put your money in a bank or building society.
I agree with your scepticism. One thing many overlook is that many are too closely focused on the so-called “1st World” economies. The so-called “3rd World” has a far higher – albeit much poorer – population. However, the “3rd World” will grow and they are not going to be powering their factories, homes, offices and shops with electricity generated from the ridiculous wind turbines but from diesel engines and gas turbines using oil – the type which comes out of the ground and not the type grown in fields! The idiotic “Extinction Rebellion” protesters (several who live a couple of miles away from me) can shout and scream all they like and dress up and parade in the streets in their red and green pantomime outfits but they will have no influence of most Africans!
Thanks. Well they do say that one should view shares as a long term investment. So I'm afraid I'll have to be masculine version of South Pacific's “Nellie” and be a ****eyed optimist like Dickens's Wilkins Micawber in David Copperfield!
Hi,
Seeking opinions; my purchase price of RDS “B” shares was £18.90 / share – pre COVID. What opinions are there about time-scales of if and when the share gets back up to this sort of level?
I bought into Shell for the divi. I have two plans. They are:
Plan A: (i). When the stock reaches £18.92 (bid) sell and get my money back. (ii). Buy shares in a particular investment trust.
Plan B: (i). Go to village stores. (ii). Buy lottery ticket. (iii). Win jackpot.
Which plan has the greater chance of success?
Please advise.
Krimh,
What you need is a crystal ball and the ability to make prophecies (NB; inaccurate prophecies are by definition not prophecies). If you have these I suggest you use it on the lottery – you'll get a higher and quicker return!
Your timing is out. COVID-19 will be with us through the summer.
Whatever Saint Greta of Thunberg (a fellow of the Royal Scottish Geographical Society would you believe?) may opine about the use of “fossil fuels”, people (why do people insist on substituting “humans” for “people” ~ it is necessary for Doctor Who because she has to deal with humans, Cybermen and Daleks) will always need oil, if not to get themselves from A to B, to make plastics. In addition, we in the rich 1st world with it's relatively low birth rate fail to realise that the poor 3rd world with it's relatively high birthrate is steadily getting richer which, over time, will mean that global demand for goods and services will increase – including the products of Royal Dutch Shell!
Many thanks Mr Jay for the CGT you'll be paying – the bill to the NHS is going to be high!
Mandrill, I agree.
I note the comments of Chris' Hughes of Bloomberg (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-crisis-even-worse-news-072652062.html) but would point out that Shell – that is even more important to the Dutch economy than the UK's – like other huge concerns can borrow money in the Eurozone at crazy rates. They actually have negative interest rates in some jurisdictions. That means you have to pay the bank to keep hold of your money! Therefore, Shell's gearing is not the problem many think it is.
If I had any spare cash I would have bought Shell.
Re all this talk about a divi cut: remember that a company bases it's divi on it's profitability. A FTSE 100 company's share price is based on market sentiment (as well it's own performance) which as you can see is unstable and fluctuates widely.
PS: I am a Shell shareholder and the shares are currently worth less than I paid for them. Am I worried? No.