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The Times
Oil markets are facing “the biggest supply crisis in decades”, one that threatens to keep prices high and depress economic growth because of a collapse in Russian supplies, the International Energy Agency has warned.

About three million barrels per day of Russian oil production — 3 per cent of the global market — could dry up from next month as sanctions bite and buyers shun supplies from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.

The situation was said by the agency to be “threatening to create a global oil supply shock” unless Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the only nations with the spare capacity to immediately offset this shortfall, agreed to pump more. However, so far they were “showing no willingness to tap into their reserves”, the agency said, as Boris Johnson yesterday visited both countries in an attempt to persuade them.
“The implications of a potential loss of Russian oil exports to global markets cannot be understated,” the IEA said. “Surging oil and commodity prices, if sustained, will have a marked impact on inflation and economic growth.”

High oil prices of about $100 a barrel are expected to temper growth in demand this year, but the global market is still facing a potential supply deficit of 700,000 barrels per day in the second quarter unless Saudi Arabia and the UAE turn on the taps, the agency said.
Oil prices have been highly volatile since the invasion amid fears over the impact on supplies from Russia, which is the world’s biggest exporter of crude and oil products. Brent crude, the global benchmark price, rose as high as $139 a barrel this month before falling back to just under $100 a barrel.

The IEA was founded in 1974 as a forum for energy co-operation after the 1973 oil embargo. This month its members agreed to the largest ever emergency stock release of more than 60 million barrels of crude.

Russia was exporting about five million barrels per day of crude oil and about three million barrels per day of refined oil products before the invasion. So far only the United States has banned Russian oil imports, but the agency said that “major oil companies, trading houses, shipping firms and banks have backed away from doing business with the country” as Russia had become “a pariah for many”.

The IEA predicts that three million barrels per day of Russian oil production could be halted from April, with a likely 2.5 million barrels-a-day drop in crude and oil product exports, although “losses could increase should restrictions or public condemnation e

Yet it has faced delays here in the planning system due to judicial reviews of decisions.

“The planning system here is one of the challenges that might prevent us from achieving [the 2030 goal],” O’Donovan said. “If a project goes to An Bord Pleanala, there is no defined timeline for a decision.”

It creates a “level of risk” in the Irish market, he adds. “Why are we having so many judicial reviews when it is a challenge to a failure or mistake in the procedure?” O’Donovan asked. “The challenge is not whether the policy is right or wrong.”

Of the 11 foreshore licences granted under the existing planning regime for offshore renewal projects since 2018, three are subject to judicial review, and two of those cases are ongoing. A total of 12 applications are with the Department of Housing, the current licensing authority. Maria Ryan, director of development at SSE Renewables, thinks the acceleration of renewable projects given the current crisis is a “no-brainer”. Nevertheless, she agrees that planning is the largest obstacle and even has the potential to “undermine investment”.

“Mara [the Maritime Area Regulatory Authority] needs to be established quicker and it needs to hit the ground running; it has to be well resourced and so do other agencies such as An Bord Pleanala, Eirgrid and National Parks and Wildlife Service,” she said.

“If we are going to get projects through the planning process, we need to have the resources and skills out there to deal with applications.”

In the short term, many in the energy sector say there is “no quick fix” for rising gas and oil prices. There appears to be no quick anything. An energy security review, ordered by Ryan in 2019, has yet to be delivered.

Paul Deane, a senior environment researcher at University College Cork, has changed his mind on the use of LNG and gas exploration in Ireland since the outbreak of Putin’s war.

“Now that we are a continent at war, it has changed my perception,” he says. “The world has changed in the past two weeks, and we need to change our thinking. I think the government needs to reassess its views on LNG and gas exploration.”

He added that the country will have to err on the side of caution and realise that a reassessment of fossil fuel policy might be a solution, if only for the short term.

Members of Fine Gael last week asked for the coalition to re-evaluate its stance on the granting of oil and gas exploration licences. Providence and its shareholders would be happy enough for the minister to progress existing permits, or even pick up the phone.

If it gets the go-ahead to test the field further, analysts say Barryroe could reach a final investment decision by 2024; and if gas is found, the field could be in production before Corrib dries up.

A spokesman for Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications said that it cannot comment on the Barryroe application, “or any other individual application, while the application is under consid

For renewables pioneer Eddie O’Connor, who founded Airtricity and Mainstream Renewable Power, the country will have to rely on fossil fuel imports from the Middle East in the short term until it has infrastructure in place to harvest its wind and solar energy. The war in Ukraine is “a big signal to us to get our act together”, O’Connor says. “Dependency on Russia is strategically dangerous for us. It affects all our people, it impoverishes us, it gives Russia power over our lives. And we all know the wind of Ireland is free. We have the best winds in Europe.”

Under the current climate action plan, Ireland is set to generate 5 gigawatts (GW) of wind power by 2030 and 30GW by 2050, which is far beyond the population’s needs.

Eirgrid has applied for planning permission for a 700MW Celtic Interconnector between Ireland and France, which could be constructed by 2026. O’Connor, meanwhile, is pressing ahead with his vision to develop a supergrid carrying power from the coast of Ireland into France, Germany and Belgium. Under the current climate action plan, Ireland is set to generate 5 gigawatts (GW) of wind power by 2030 and 30GW by 2050, which is far beyond the population’s needs.

Eirgrid has applied for planning permission for a 700MW Celtic Interconnector between Ireland and France, which could be constructed by 2026. O’Connor, meanwhile, is pressing ahead with his vision to develop a supergrid carrying power from the coast of Ireland into France, Germany and Belgium. Under the current climate action plan, Ireland is set to generate 5 gigawatts (GW) of wind power by 2030 and 30GW by 2050, which is far beyond the population’s needs.

Eirgrid has applied for planning permission for a 700MW Celtic Interconnector between Ireland and France, which could be constructed by 2026. O’Connor, meanwhile, is pressing ahead with his vision to develop a supergrid carrying power from the coast of Ireland into France, Germany and Belgium.
That power still has to be harnessed from Ireland’s windswept coasts. When it comes to investing in such large projects, Austin Coughlan, who heads the Temporis Aurora Fund, backed by the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, says finding capital will not be the problem.

“It is the speed of which you can undertake development, the speed at which you can deploy capital that is the key factor for investors,” he said.

Kevin O’Donovan, managing director of Statkraft Ireland, says the capabilities are there but the planning system is a “challenge”.

Statkraft, a Norwegian renewable energy company, has developed onshore and offshore wind farms, solar farms and battery storage in Ireland and across Europe. Yet it has faced delays here in the planning system due to judicial reviews of decisions.

Indeed, despite meeting 30 per cent of Ireland’s current electricity needs, the offshore industry has been explicitly written out of the government’s energy security review. IOOA has been working on proposals regarding carbon capture potential at Corrib and other low-carbon projects. Ryan refuses to meet the organisation.

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Exasperated, last week IOOA wrote to the tanaiste, Leo Varadkar, seeking help; “As our line minister is unwilling to listen to our industry, or even meet with us, there is no way for us to have our suggestions heard at a political level.”

As Green Party leader, Ryan’s reticence to engage with fossil fuel explorers is perhaps understandable. As a government minister in a time of crisis, the stance may be less defensible. He has been implacably opposed to plans for a €650 million liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal being built in the Shannon estuary, despite EU leaders last week scrambling to secure LNG to shore up gas supplies and cut reliance on Russian stocks.

An Bord Pleanala is expected to rule on the LNG project, being promoted by the American company New Fortress Energy, in September. The government’s position is that, if permission is granted and New Fortress negotiates any judicial reviews, the state cannot stop the terminal. It is government policy not to support it, however.

The push-back on fossil fuels is based on the government’s commitment to promoting renewables. Ireland’s supply of wind resources has been posited not just as a solution to Ireland’s energy security problems, but all of Europe’s.

Last week the European Commission launched a plan to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuel, with Frans Timmermans, the EU executive vice-president for the European Green Deal, saying: “Let’s dash into renewable energy at lightning speed.”

Yet Ireland’s offshore renewable development is stuck in official torpor. Simon De Pietro has been waiting four years to get licences for two wind energy projects off the Cork and Clare coastlines. For the director of DP Energy — and his investors — the process has “taken too long” and lacked “clarity”.

While offshore developers apply for permits under a largely outdated 1933 law, the Maritime Area Planning Act, passed into law last December, will set up a new regulator. The Department of the Environment has said it will be set up by the first quarter of 2023.

Last year DP Energy announced a partnership with Iberdrola, a Spanish energy giant, to develop three offshore wind projects, but De Pietro is concerned that delays will discourage investment. “Investors are thinking, ‘If I am going to put tens of millions [of euros] into a project, I’ll do it where there is more certainty,’” De Pietro says. “There is no seabed certainty in Ireland.”

For renewables pioneer Eddie O’Connor, who founded Airtricity and Mainstream Renewable Power, the country will have to rely on fossil fuel imports from the Middle East in the short term until it has in

BUSINESS
How Ireland is freewheeling into a possible energy crisis
Ireland may have all the oil, gas and wind it needs but red tape is getting in the way
Eamon Ryan, the environment minister, champions renewables over fossil fuel resources but developers in all sectors are falling foul of the planning system
Eamon Ryan, the environment minister, champions renewables over fossil fuel resources but developers in all sectors are falling foul of the planning system
ILLUSTRATION: VAUN RICHARDS
Laura Roddy, Brian Carey
Sunday March 13 2022, 12.01am GMT, The Sunday Times
Since its first discovery ten years ago, Barryroe has been the great white hope of Ireland’s offshore exploration. Providence, the main promoter of Barryroe, one of the largest undeveloped offshore oil and gas fields in Europe, has encountered a litany of challenges including falling oil prices, failed talks with investment partners and a change in management. To the list Providence can now add another hurdle: a stonewalling minister.

Last April Exola, a joint venture between Providence Resources and junior partner Lansdowne Oil and Gas, submitted an application to the GeoScience Regulation Office of the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications, for a lease undertaking to develop the Barryroe field off the coast of Co Cork.

Having drawn up plans for a drilling programme to further appraise the field and completed a financing plan, the company says it cannot move forward without first securing the lease undertaking, which it calls “a natural follow-on from the Barryroe exploration licence”. Yet the permit is not forthcoming.

Since the start of the year, Providence has twice written to Eamon Ryan, the environment minister, without reply.

Frustration is mounting. The exploration licence expired in July, and so the delay is eating into the four-year term of the lease. Last month Providence emphasised the role that Barryroe can play in improving national energy security for Ireland, which currently imports 100 per cent of its oil.

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As part of the planned appraisal programme, which will cost $65 million (€59 million), Providence will also seek to ascertain the potential for developing Barryroe as a gas field. It is in the same vicinity as the proven and now exhausted Seven Heads field off Kinsale.

If the Corrib gas field depletes, as expected, by the end of 2031, Ireland will be also importing 100 per cent of its natural gas. Providence says that Barryroe is a strategic national asset, capable of smoothing the nation’s transition to a greener future.

After gas-rich Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions pushed energy prices ever higher, Barryroe’s value would appear to be even more tangible. Yet Providence and the Irish Offshore Operators’ Association (IOOA) still failed to get a hearing.

Indeed, despite meeting 30 per cent of Ireland’s current electricity needs, the offshore industry has been explicitly written out of the governmen

Mexican state oil company pumps €327m into Irish subsidiary
PMI Trading is headquartered in Ireland but resident for tax purposes in Mexico

Barry J Whyte - avatar
Barry J Whyte
Chief Feature Writer
@whytebarry
30th January, 2022
Mexican state oil company pumps €327m into Irish subsidiary
Pemex: its Irish subsidiary, PMI Trading handles the trading of billions of dollars of crude oil and oil derivatives under authorisation from the Mexican state-owned oil company. Picture: Shutterstock
Pemex, the Mexican state-owned oil company, has moved $362.5 million (€327 million) into its Irish subsidiary, new company documents show.

The subsidiary, PMI Trading, is headquartered in Ireland, but resident for tax purposes in Mexico. It handles the trading of billions of dollars of crude oil and oil derivatives under authorisation from Pemex.

The purpose of the share transaction is not clear, and efforts to reach PMI Trading for comment prior to publication were not successful.

In 2020, the company had revenue of $14.3 billion from what it described in the accounts as “export and domestic commodity sales”, according to the latest accounts. That was down from a revenue figure of $26.1 billion the previous year.

As part of the accounts, the directors state that the company’s “objective is to become a hydrocarbon trading company with the knowledge, skills and infrastructure which equals or surpasses the trading arms of major oil companies”.

PMI’s accounts state that “the business of the company is at all times conducted outside of Ireland and it maintains no presence in Ireland other than its registered office”.

The company had assets worth $5.8 billion at the end of 2020, according to its accounts. This was mostly made up of “related party receivables” in the amount of $4.9 billion, meaning transactions with other companies within the Pemex group. This was a rise on the previous year’s figure of $3.5 billion.

PMI had liabilities in the amount of $4 billion, with $2.3 billion made up of loans and borrowings to unspecified institutions. Another $850 million was made up of related party liabilities, and there was $790 million in trade and other payables.

Over the last ten years the company, has paid out $3.5 billion to PMI Norteamérica, its immediate parent company, the accounts show.

The accounts also state that there is a material uncertainty in relation to the company’s ability to continue as a going concern, related to “recurring losses, increased indebtedness and reduced working capital” at Pemex, the company’s ultimate parent.

Shannon LNG terminal can go ahead if planning is granted, Varadkar says
Government will not block controversial fracked gas project, despite it being contrary to policy, according to Tánaiste

Daniel Murray - avatar
Daniel Murray
Political Correspondent
@danieltmurray
30th January, 2022
Shannon LNG terminal can go ahead if planning is granted, Varadkar says
Leo Varadkar has said the government will not block the controversial Shannon LNG terminal. Picture: RollingNews
Leo Varadkar has said the Shannon LNG terminal in Kerry will not be blocked by the government, and that if it can secure planning permission on its own terms, then it will go ahead, despite government policy.

Last week, the Business Post reported that Eamon Ryan had intervened directly in the planning application for Shannon LNG, a proposed gas import terminal in Kerry, telling An Bord Pleanála that it should not be permitted “under any circumstances”. The government’s stated policy is not to support the construction of LNG terminals on environmental grounds.

“I wish to make it very clear that I believe that [the] permitting of this project would be in direct contravention to government policy and therefore it should not, under any circumstances be permitted,” Ryan told An Bord Pleanála in October 2021.

Speaking in the Dáil last week, Varadkar said the government would not block the construction of Shannon LNG if it was given planning permission. A decision is due on the project in March.

“The government is not supporting that project because we believe the future is in renewable energy and hydrogen but we are not going to block it either. There is a planning process and if the company gets planning permission and can finance its project then it will be able to proceed,” Varadkar said.

The company behind the proposed terminal is New Fortress Energy, a major American exporter of fracked gas. Shannon LNG has been in the pre-development phase in Ireland for many years, with substantial opposition emerging to the project on environmental grounds, as some of the gas that could be supplied to the terminal may come from fracking in the US.

Fracking is a form of fossil fuel extraction which involves injecting high-pressure water and chemicals deep into the earth to release hydrocarbons from shale rock.

The Irish Academy of Engineers last week warned that the government’s stance, opposing the construction of any form of LNG terminal in Ireland, posed an “enormous risk” to the country’s future energy security.

Gas exploration ban will leave us powerless
Renewables sector needs fossil fuel back-up to avoid energy insecurity

Gerard Howlin
Sunday January 30 2022, 12.01am GMT, The Sunday Times
Ireland is in a race to replace fossil fuels with renewables. We want to save Earth, and move fast enough to stay ahead of the posse. Russian warships off our coast represent a sighting of the sort of trouble we may face. On an island dependent on imported carbon, our grand plan for a 51 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and net-zero emissions by 2050, is inspiring. The problem is our pace in a race where the costs of losing are catastrophic.

I have childhood memories of the oil crisis in the 1970s and of long queues for rationed petrol. There was a sudden awareness of the power of Arab countries, because our oil was under their sand. Inflation went out of control. It undermined the Fine Gael–Labour coalition government, and helped the elections of Margaret Thatcher in the UK in 1979 and of Ronald Reagan in America in 1980. But that was a simpler world. When I went on holidays, my farming relatives were still milking by hand. A Honda 50 kept you ahead of the posse then.

Our modern reliance on energy is staggering. It is inextricably linked with digital dependence. These words are being tapped out on a laptop, to be sent by email, before being published and read online as well as in print. Deepening digitalisation means basic functions require bigger supplies of energy. We recoil from the sordidness of physical waste and fret about our air miles, but leave a digital footprint that leaves opencast mining in the ha’penny place. In Ireland there is a double down, since the country is also a tech hub.

The good news is that digitalisation is irreversible and Ireland is in a lead position. Better news is that we are potentially an energy El Dorado, well placed to supply not only our own needs but to be a substantial net exporter of renewable energy. Fundamentally we have the right policy, which is to decarbonise. The problem is the timing. We need to deliver enough renewable energy to allow us to abandon indigenous fossil fuels, essentially natural gas, within a decade.

However, our ban on future exploration leaves us defenceless, for at least a generation, against whatever the world throws against us. Gas, not oil, is the key issue in terms of indigenous resources. Even as we decarbonise, fossil fuels will still be needed, and the Irish renewable energy sector will require gas as a permanent back-up.

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As we import through pipelines from Russia and elsewhere, our native gas supply from the Corrib is estimated to last only another ten years. Banning future exploration is the triumph of hope over experience. It was driven politically by a ****tail of enthusiasm and cynicism. It leaves Ireland bereft of energy security in an insecure world.

On page 226 of the National Energy Climate Plan, we are told gas will meet

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