Member Info for bravo1

Indeed, though on 8th Dec there was a TR1 notifying an increase in their holding from 9.92% to 11.05%, so perhaps this is client redemptions rather than strategic?

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/FNX/holding-s-in-company/17363629

Was just revisiting my notes on SPA and thought I'd re-listen to the Q&A section of the recent IMC interims presentation....... BUT the Q&A has been edited out of the recording and the usual written transcript of them is missing. WTF

Delicately put!

Agreed YHAL, can't imagine broad institutional joy at management bailing out at the end of the investment cycle and beginning of the growth cycle. Looks a steal at this price. Pity someone like Harwood aren't on the register to agitate for an improved offer for shareholders. Management are completely conflicted as the exit value will be the base point of their VCP plan with BV or ANO PE.

Perhaps it answers my question to why forecasts hadn't been revisited despite the recent significant contract wins and the £2m P&L improvement in FY1/27 due to MOD contract moving from £700K investment to £1.2m ARR.

Https://www.hy-vee.com/corporate/news-events/news-press-releases/hyvee-voted-best-grocery-store-in-america-in-usa-todays-10best-readers-choice-awards/?srsltid=AfmBOorNGwSCdHRVQEdmQC9UXxShQWq6LmmOl1V79pgV7-XN2V3FZO1n

Looks like Hy-Vee is the new client; can't find any other regional US grocer which fits the description. The link from the Hy-Vee website references 570 business units across 9 states in the Midwest with sales of $13bn+.

Agreed TM; reflected in 3%+ disclosed holdings totalling 81% across 11 institutions, which is the strongest support I recall for a small cap stock.

DYOR etc

You were spot on re RNS timing.

YHAL, can't disagree with your logic but they have RNS'd much smaller wins in the past, so it struck me as inconsistent with their previous behaviour.

TM, it is £6m but £1m of that is VAT, so not to SPA. Agree re their order flow disclosed, hence my rhetorical question re '27 broker forecasts.

May be they are trying to manage expectations more carefully, after exciting the market in H1 24 (calendar) but underestimating the inertia in their customer base. I hold and remain positive about the company's prospects so am biased; welcome any alternative views.

Https://www.highwaysmagazine.co.uk/companies-and-contracts/1spatial-wins-nuar-ordnance-survey-contract

Appears to be a material contract, article has a link through to gov.uk Tender site with full financials. With the recent SaaS wins, the MOD contract moving from cost to revenue in early 27 and this OS contract going live shortly, the current 27 revenue forecast looks as if it needs revising upwards. Any thoughts?

Another TR1 from Rockwood Strategic today, their holding has now crossed the 5% threshold.

Agreed Kirkyrip though I thought there would be more of a reaction to the RNS on 10th Nov re the US win. It doesn't take too much research to come up with H-E-B as the likely new client, the 10th largest food retailer in the US with sales of $44bn (about 25% of the size of the total UK grocery market).

Admittedly the initial contract is with only one of their 5 brands, and we don't know the scale of that brand, but it does seem to validate the recent appointment of Jeff Baskin as CRO and to reinforce the underlying strength of their technology and offering.

But after the shock of losing a high margin contract, I suspect EYE will have to show demonstrable progress to move the SP on materially. Today's AGM statement was very upbeat but the numbers to which they referred are in the house broker forecasts (as far as I can see).

I hold. DYOR.

Sorry just read your post again, you were talking bid for ONT, I wrongly assumed IPO. Ignore my last post!

Doesn't going down the derivative route reduce the risk of them pushing up the SP in the immediate short term as they accumulate? I've never bought or traded them, but would seem logical?

Market caps of Illumina, ONT and PacBio are down by 70%, 73% and 77% respectively since end 2021; and similarly 2021 EV/revenue ratios (based on 2021 actual revs) for disruptors, PACB and ONT, were just shy of 40x; currently EV/f25 revs are around 7.2x and 5.2x respectively with ILMN 4.7x.

But ONT revs growing fastest of the three peers; based on consensus f25 revs, growth over 2021 actuals are ONT + 65%, PACB +20, ILMN -10%.

So it is the sector which has massively de-rated not specifically ONT.

Calcs done recently using 3rd party data, DYOR

IPO +5% on a down day?! .... RNS re Saba Capital TR1 disclosing 6.2% position, mainly derivatives, would explain it.

I don't think it as straight forward as that, the whole sector has been de-rated hugely from end 2021; ONT's and two main peer's EVs are down between 70-80%: ILMN -70%, ONT -73% and PACB - 77%.

Shortly after the ONT IPO, EV/revenue ratios were just shy of 40x for ONT and PACB (based on 2021 actuals as I can't locate f22 revenues) and 14x for ILMN.

They are now at arguably more realistic levels:

ILMN EV/f25revs: 4.7x, EV/f26 revs: 4.6x

ONT EV/f25revs: 5.2x, EV/f26revs: 4.1x

PACB EV/f25revs: 7.2, EV/f26revs: 6.2x

Based on third party data; DYOR.

I hold.

7.11.25 RNS below. Shares up 5% at 9:40 on the update.

(LSE: ONT), the company delivering a new generation of molecular sensing technology based on nanopores, today announces that, with the CEO succession process actively underway, the Company is postponing the previously planned 14 November virtual investor seminar pending appointment of the new CEO.

The Company expects full-year 2025 constant currency revenue growth to be at the top end of its previously stated guidance range of 20-23%, with all other financial metrics tracking in line with expectations.

It is unusual for large organisations not to run a competitive procurement process even after a pilot, if only to squeeze the pricing as much as possible.

And I clearly stated 'suggesting'!

SPA release their interims on Monday and there's an investormeetcompany presentation next Wednesday. Good opportunity to ask them how the how competitive landscape looks.

DYOR

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SPA/landmark-1streetworks-contract/17263907

This may help to rekindle investor interest. The Panmure broker note states that it was a direct award, without a competitive tender, suggesting that they couldn't find a comparative product for 1streetworks to go up against. Augurs well? DYOR etc..

From their interim statement in mid Aug 25....."The portfolio continues to be focused on a select few key holdings namely WIA Gold, Sanu Gold and Asara Resources."