Member Info for Brasso3

Production figures are out for October (6700oz gold)! :) The ABC news link:- Http://abc.az/eng/news/main/92210.html As of end of October production running at 60,800oz with two months left in the year. looks like we will be towards the top end of the forcast (75,000oz). 54,100oz + 6,700oz = 60,800oz

Bays It has been suggested that the slow progress with Argentina production was due to the facility upgrades as these wells now produce with a high water cut. 15 June 2015 "Work is currently being carried out to upgrade the facilities in the Concession which comprise two separate main Central Processing Units, one on each of the Dos Puntitas and Puesto Guardian fields in aggregate capable of processing 6500 bfpd." Before the last 4 workovers the field was producing 293 bopd with an 85% water cut (1,950 bls/day total fluids). I am not sure I believe this was the sole reason for the failure to complete the 10 workovers but it may have been a factor.

The production updates are released monthly through the Azerbaijan press and news agencies.

2 weeks until the next production update. I think a conservative 7000oz gold is likely with the possibility of 7500oz. 7000 x ($1120 - $736) = $2.68m profit for October. Add in the silver and copper and $3m - $3.5m is more realistic.

If that is achieved & can be maintained across a FY, that gives a FY production target of 91,980oz Au with Copper concentrate in the region of 5,500t Knock off 10% for holidays and down time & FY 2016 should be 83koz Au + 5,000t Cu concentrate. 83,000 * (1,100-750) = $29m 5,000 * $2,000 = $10m (There is one factor though that we cannot yet predict ... if Flotation increases recoveries of Au & Cu from the Agitation Plant then, to what extent will it reduce output from the SART plant? The SART plant did run before Agitation was introduced so I assume it still has a role to play using the liquids from the Heap leaches but, from memory, I believe the SART plant had a capacity greater than the heap leaches alone could supply). Anyway, keep up those sort of figures for 18 months and the debt will be virtually gone in Spring 2017 & this could have EPS of 15-17c (10-11p) On a trailing PE of 7-10 that would be 70-110p share price target I've made no allowance for the silver and (we believe) future Zn and/or Mo output or, for any exploration / expansion upside. That seems a decent risk/reward balance given the current sp of 5.5p to buy & still leaves the door open for any upside should fiat currencies & global economies in general really begin to fall apart and gold regains its safe-haven attraction, thus propelling it above the $1,100 base-case. Although this is operational in an emerging market, it has a natural currency hedge with local input costs in AZN and output in US$.

H1 produced 35,938oz Au, spread over 181 days = 198oz/day ave. From the HY results: Production 1/1/15 - 13/9/15 was 50,779oz 50,779-35,938 = 14,841oz produced 1/7/15 to 13/9/15 That also equates to 198oz Au per day over the 75 days so, that seems a reasonable average daily run rate to presume for the remainder of the year. 14/9/15 to 31/12/15 = 109 days 109 x 198oz = 21,582oz 50,779 + 21,582 = 72,361oz for the FY Pro-Rata, for Q3 it looks like it will be circa: ((14,841+(17*198))= 18,207oz So, I don't think they will quite beat their previous record as flotation is not due to start until after the Q end. Yes, I appreciate the Heaps will drop off once the weather closes in thus affecting Q4 but, we'll have the Flotation plant to help offset that. It seems they first plan to run the flotation plant solely on the tailings from the Agitation plant. This should increase the overall Au recovery rate and significantly increase the Cu production. By starting it up this way they can ensure the process is working correctly without incurring any additional costs of having to run the grinding mills. At what point they start processing the stacked sulphide ore remains to be confirmed .. presumably once they are happy with the performance of the circuit from the conditioning tanks onwards. Flotation is supposed to help them increase the recovery rate of the Au & also the Cu. They have said they are targeting an additional 5,000oz from the flotation for the FY. Spread over the 92 days of 1/10/15 to 31/12/15 that would be 54oz per day .. a 27% increase giving ave. daily combined output of 198+54=252oz / day.

Anglo Asian’s Gedabek reinvigoration is now complete “Based on new drilling - on surface drilling, on deep drilling - it was established that this was actually a polymetallic mine, and so a new mine plan was developed.” http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/111476/anglo-asians-gedabek-reinvigoration-is-now-complete-111476.html

Less than 2 weeks now until the quarterly results. Possible Q3 news:- - 18000 - 19000oz gold produced. - Floatation plant online (maybe 1000oz additional contribution to the above). - Debt reduced by $2m - $4m.

Q4 production with the floation plant should be around 20000 oz if we are being conservative. Q4 for 2014 was 17000 oz. That would bring in revenue at $1100 gold price of $22m!!!

From Aerbaijan new reports we already know the July and August production for AAZ:- July - 207.4 Kg (6668 oz) August - 185.5 Kg (5963 oz) I would expect September to be on par with August as the weather is similar and there will be a few hundred ounces from the floatation plant. Therefore Q3 production should be 18000 - 19000 oz).

The financial position at the end of June was $1.7m in the bank with $48.7m debt. I expect that they can pay down $0.8m of the debt in Q3 as there will be additional CAPEX getting the floatation plant running. So with cash in the bank and the last 3 months production debt could now be down to $45m (end of September). For Q4 production should be around 7000 oz a month with the floatation plant online. That is $7.7m revenue a month for the last three months of the year. That should bring debt below $40m by year end.

Sorry! $9.1m for H1 2015. :) See page 25. HTTP://www.angloasianmining.com/media/pdf/Anglo%20Asian%20Mining%20plc%20Investor%20Presentation%20-%2022%20September%202015.pdf

This is a one way bet now. - Bashirov gone from 18m share to nothing in 1 year. - CEO owns 30% of the stock, BoD combined own 40%. - Operational costs are down to $736 an ounce - 2015 will be their record gold production of 70,000 - 75,000 oz - The new floatation plant will be online in October. - In H1 2015 debt was reduced by $5m whilst spending $9m on CAPEX. - The CAPEX is finished for the foreseeable future so that debt can be paid at $1.5m a month now.

AAZ total volume yesterday was 7m which is the highest in AAZs 8 year history. A single sell of 4,422,758 at 4.8p went through yet the share price was up 7.5%. Bashirovs last (and only) declaration in July he had 4,572,758 shares. :) The overhang is now cleared and Bashirov has sold out completely IMO. I expect a decent rise today. ******************************* AAZ market cap - £5.5m Share price - 5.25p Expected 2015 revenue - £50m Debt - £31m Major share holder (CEO) owns 29% of the stock.

It looks like with the trading volume Bashirov has finally finished selling. No holding this back now.

6m trade after the bell today at 6p worth £60k! :)

As you can see from the historical production Q1 typically makes up less than 20% of the annual figures. 17,193 oz at 20% would reach 86,000 oz.

AAZs Q1 production has always been the worst quarter of the year. Here are the Q1 figures for the previous years and (total annual production):- 2015 - 17,193 oz (70,000 - 75,000 oz target) 2014 - 10,403 oz (60,285 oz) 2013 - 8,725 oz (52,068 oz) 2012 - 9,925 oz (50,215 oz)

If my calculations are correct the 697kg is approximately 25000 oz for the 4 months in 2015. Bare in mind that Q1 is normally AAZs worst period of the year due to bad weather conditions. I would conclude from this that the 75000 oz target for 2015 is now very conservative.

http://report.az/en/industry/gold-production-increased-by-39-in-azerbaijan/