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Posted my musings of the TAP EGM on the TAP thread for info
Good turn out of PI’s. 2. Vote a done deal as expected. Management team not there. Chairman Tim Weller conducted the meeting and made it clear they couldn’t give any formal guidance but would answer other questions after the voting. Neil Jones, non-exec also there supporting with any financial areas in particular given he is a CFO in his day job. Finn Cap we’re also present. Both Tim and Neil seemed very competent to me. Financial disciplines will certainly be far stronger than R1 shareholders would be used too. They both said TAP would be very conservative over the next year or so in financial outlook as they get under the bonnet of R1 and apply those disciplines. They were very surprised at how long it took R1 to close their books each month. Among the questions I did ask, they will consider a move to the main market (both with experience of running businesses on the main market) or NASDAQ. They didn’t know quite how highly rated TTD was so hopefully I’ve inspired them to investigate NASDAQ!! They did say all focus would be on the integration so won’t be considered in the short term. They will continue to buy back shares until the share price gets to the point where it isn’t an efficient use of capital. $15m was a prudent start point. I got the impression they may reconsider buying shares if the share price heads north of £3.50. They will continue their dividend policy and assess once they see the R1 business properly. Heavily focussed on cash and how they best deploy it in shareholder interests. They won’t release audited R1 accounts for the year just closing. Finn Cap will issue a note after the votes have gone through and the deal complete but can’t at this time. This is likely to give an up to date view of cash/profit etc but won’t break out the two businesses. They’ve taken a view on the litigation risk from Edenbrook, again a conservative view. There is an investor roadshow 10th April where they will no doubt showcase the potential of the combined business and synergies etc. We may also get some better guidance on the year ahead then. 1GW may have further to add from his conversations. Hope that’s useful to any shareholders reading this board.
Just heading in
Sp up to 2.10 now reflecting a done deal here and hopefully a taste of what is to come
Will do Biffa. Mainly going to question TAP on future forecasts, level of synergies etc. Only been a holder for a couple of months so not met their team before.
1GW, if I'm there won't you already be there!!
Well I guess the city view a deal as unlikely given the share price, also that EchoStar won't join the fray. I didn't think it would go down like that yesterday.
I did see that Jefferies have just cut their target price to £8.90 today. Brokers seem to live in another world completely.
I can see that 'seriously undervalued' line coming out soon.
I'm off to the EGM tomorrow. Are there many others attending?
I don’t see they will pull the dividend just declared. The other side may wish to chip the price but really it is small relative to the deal so expect them to leave it. Normally the dividend bit is to cover any future special dividends being declared or paid.
Come back n Eddie you know Stt doesn’t reply to goading posts like that. I’m just hoping that he disappears when R1 disappears and he puts his catastrophic 2014 losses behind him. As you say he can then focus on his TLY losses instead.
It will be interesting to see if this trades above the offer, indicating either an improvement to get management backing or EchoStar coming back in. It should be above 5.43 in my view. Surely even if no offer they would get an improvement for a recommended offer. Also interesting though that ISAT haven’t come out to say it materially under values the business.
I don't see a counter offer coming or LO trying to block GW. They'd have known the terms of the deal when giving the letter of intent. Tosca buying TAP suggests they are unmovable.
Just wish we had some details on future revenue and profit forecasts as well as the cost/revenue synergies expected. There seems to be almost no information on this that I can see.
Anyway, that's what I've bet on as only hold about 10k R1 shares now. Rest in TAP.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
AIM stocks even. Though I am tempted to take a stick to the meeting.
II now posting out today. AIM sticks not part of their voting service apparently (but R1 was!!). Just waiting on self trade now to respond.
1GW, I used the secure message facility from my account for both. II automatically gives you the voting/attend meeting option if registered so I could easily request meeting attendance for R1.
Will let you know when I get a response.
Anyone had any problems getting EGM attendance info? I've got TAP shares held in II and Selftrade but no info yet. Had the R1 details though. Have sent messages today to try and find out why nothing has come through yet.
If anyone has any info on getting attendance details it would be appreciated.
Emc, the ratio is 28/33 not 16/19
Getting tough to swap shares now. Only managed 2000 today after small spike in share price this afternoon. Hardly worth the effort now so will probably just hold the R1 shares I've got left until the deal goes through.
Stt loading up ahead of the EGM.
Eddie / Tardis, I think you are right re Stt. No one gets that twisted on a company unless they’ve lost a very serious amount of money and/or a relationship as a consequence, must have been life changing in a bad way for him. There’s been plenty of posts in the past detailing his buying pre 2014 at levels way above what he could possibly have sold out for after the blog and July 14 profits warning. I’m down somewhere around 23-24% on R1 having been in at various points since immediately after that profit warning but take the view we’re at the bottom now and it won’t take much from TAP to get that back. In my book the arb is worth doing as it reduces the break even a tiny bit for no risk. The risk is in the future share price movement but hopefully news flow from the company will be positive. Incidentally I also hold TAP. Thought I got in at the bottom there with an average of just under 17p but that’s down about 20% currently. Just glad I didn’t get in anywhere near Stt’s 55p+. There’s always some winners and losers in any portfolio but better to recognise that and deal with it. It’s only a proper loser when you sell up. Of course there are other proper losers out there but they never seem to fess up to any losing trades, everything always seems to win. Nothing worse than deluded losers.
I don't really care what Stt thinks, he's filtered for ever.
As I intend to stay in this long term it's in my interests to take advantage of the spread vs the offer. I've mainly done it on my SIPP but so far have moved 80k of R1 to 71k of TAP. On ISA moved c20k R1 to get 18k TAP.
Wish I'd done more on the day of the announcement when there was a 10% difference.
Looks like the play is dead for today but will keep watching. Can't see another bid emerging (that should see one come in tomorrow now) but am currently almost 50:50 between the two so will see what happens. Comfortable with my position as it stands.