Member Info for BradThompson

I gathered all the data and points myself. I have corrected any anomalies in the data I have seen, checked and rechecked the data before getting Gemini to format it in a logical way. Not sure why that is a bad thing. It was my effort; I don’t see anyone else putting it the way I have done.

😂. I only get it to rewrite my own research and lay it out logically for me and others to understand better. Seems there’s a lot of negativity in the SML chat.

The MM ask is 65,000 shares at 33p. Nobody is moving the price until this is eaten away.

The Whale Connection (The Hub).

Why is Greg Coffey the favorite for the TR1? Look at Tungsten West (TUN). He is already anchored there. In the mining world, you do not buy the world class processing plant (the Devon Hub) without securing the highest grade ore nearby (the Cornwall Spoke). The 134M shares admitted today are likely the bridge to making that partnership official.

Cornwall to Devon: The 22 Mile Reality.

There is a lot of talk about residential traffic between Redmoor and Hemerdon. Here is the technical fix the bears are ignoring: Tomra Ore Sorting.

• By using sorters at the Redmoor site in Cornwall, we can strip out roughly 70 percent of waste rock before it ever touches a truck.

• We are not moving mountains; we are moving high grade concentrate. This turns a traffic nightmare into a standard, low impact industrial commute.

The Rail Myth: Why Triple Handling Fails.

Bears keep calling for rail, but they ignore the logistics. There is no rail link at the mine gate. Using rail would mean:

1. Loading a truck at Redmoor.

2. Driving to a railhead like Liskeard or Plymouth.

3. Unloading the truck and loading a train.

4. Moving the train 15 miles.

5. Unloading the train and trucking it again to the plant.

That is a triple handling nightmare that adds cost and dust. A single tipper truck loaded at Redmoor drives straight to Hemerdon and unloads directly into the hopper. One touch. Point to point. Pure efficiency.

Rights and Readiness:

Does SML have the right to move? Yes.

• Cornwall Resources (SML) holds the exclusive mineral rights.

• Drill pads are permitted.

• The 4.7 million pound raise means the rigs are funded and the contract is signed.

They are not waiting for permission to start; they are already accelerating.

The Bottom Line.

Tomorrow's MRE is the true valuation event. While the chat is arguing about lorries, the smart money is looking at 85 percent plus recovery rates. That is what rerates a mine. The Hub is ready, the Spoke is funded, and the MRE is 24 hours away.

I fully believe a partnership will be announced shortly.

I'd bet a nice bottle of port that it will be SML. We just have to wait and see if they will merge or a fee will be paid to TUN for using their facility? This is the only logical solution to get SML's higher grade ore into the refinery. Trucking the ore 20-22 miles away and being able to do it this year, especially whilst the spot price of Tungsten is so high...

My prediction is that it will be transported by truck to Hemerdon mine 22 miles away to be sorted (Tungsten West).

Hi mate. It’s only because I’ve deployed my money to TUN and my stocks and shares ISA is maxed out.

I'm not debating the grade mate, we all know Redmoor has the higher grade Tungsten.

The real question is: Does it actually make sense to build two separate processing plants only 22 miles apart?

That £50m UK fund you mentioned is for the entire critical minerals sector, not a gift for SML to build a plant. Even if they got a piece of it, they still need £120m. Why would any bank or government fund a second plant when TUN’s £50m+ facility is already built, permitted, and sitting right there?

At 1.17% grade, trucking that ore 22 miles costs almost nothing compared to the profit margin. Spending £120m and waiting 5 years for permits just to save on a short truck ride is a terrible business move. No institutional investor would sign off on that?

TUN leads this because they have the hardware and the $95m US EXIM deal in the works. Greg Coffey (who’s at 15% in TUN and just led the SML raise) isn't betting on SML wasting years on a second plant. He’s positioning for the Hub and Spoke model because it’s the only way to get this ore to market while prices are peaking in 2026/27 in my opinion.

Propinquity, those "Cornish funds" you mentioned was a £762k grant for studies and drilling. That doesn't even cover the interest on the £120m SML would need to build a plant. The reason TUN didn't go for those small grants is because they are already past the study phase; they are currently in due diligence for a $95m US EXIM facility. The US government is backing the actual hardware that secures the supply chain, not a project that is still years away from breaking ground.

Why would SML waste 5 years on permits and £120m on a redundant plant when Hemerdon is only 22 miles away? At 1.17% grade, the trucking cost is basically nothing compared to the profit margin.

Greg Coffey now owns about 15% of TUN and just led that £4.7m raise for SML on March 19th. He isn't waiting around for SML to build a plant, he’s positioning for the merger (theoretically) because it’s the only logical way to get that high grade ore to market by Q3 2026. TUN leads because they have the plant and the big institutional debt.

I will be looking to buy SML if they do a similar retail offer to raise money to build a plant (like the 18p offer) That would be an opportunity of a lifetime.

Propinquity, SML definitely has the high-grade at Redmoor, but they’re facing a £120m CAPEX wall if they try to build their own plant. That’s why TUN is the logical lead—they already have the £50m+ plant sitting there and the US EXIM bank facility ($95m) in the works.

Think of it this way: SML has the ingredients, but TUN has the kitchen. You can’t cook without a stove. Without the Hemerdon plant, SML’s ore stays in the ground for years while they fight for permits and funding.

The "prominent investor" (Coffey) being in both stocks tells you everything. He isn't betting on one against the other; he’s building a "Hub and Spoke" monopoly. If SML holders get swapped into the new "British Tungsten Corp" led by TUN, everyone wins. Both will rerate massively, but TUN is the engine that actually makes it possible to get the metal out of the ground

That’s a great investment. Either way. If a merger happens this doesn’t just turn in to a UK giant. It’s a Western asset.

Honestly mate I’m not qualified at all. I’ve been researching this for about 8 months. The spot prices, actions of investors, remaining B-share conversions back my analysis up I believe. Once the US EXIM bank RNS drops this project is de-risked.

Also, wetradewaves have just analysed the chart and believe the correction is complete and expect upside next week.

A dream entry at 23.8p on the lower 0.786 fib line I drew earlier this would be amazing, but I don’t think it will hit. I wouldn’t risk penny pinching from here.

Thank you. I wanted to remain very conservative instead of putting dream prices and NPV’s. I do believe this is the last chance to board before the price gets too expensive to enter for most retail like me.

Does anyone actually think Greg Coffey is buying these juniors just for fun, or are we going to talk about the monopoly being built right under our noses?

Let’s look at the facts we actually know:

Fact 1: Greg Coffey (Kirkoswald) took a massive 9.3% stake in TUN back in February.

Fact 2: The same "Wizard" just led a £4.7M raise for SML on March 19th. Why buy the "Kitchen" (TUN) and then the "Ingredients" (SML) unless you're opening the only restaurant in town?

Fact 3: SML is sitting on 1.17% high-grade ore at Redmoor but they’re staring at a £120M CAPEX wall to build their own plant. Does anyone seriously think they’ll spend that cash when TUN’s world class plant is sitting just 22 miles away?

 

Fact 4: TUN is the only logical lead here. Why? Because they own the £50M+ processing infrastructure, the permits, and they have the US EXIM Bank currently vetting a $95M facility for them. You don't build a new plant when you can just use the one that’s already there.

So, a few questions for the "Dilution" crowd:

1. Why is the B-share conversion happening NOW if it isn’t the final "house cleaning" before the US EXIM deal goes binding on March 31st?

2. Why would the "Whales" (Coffey & Landsdowne) lock up the register if they weren't preparing for a "Hub and Spoke" merger that triples the plant's EBITDA overnight?

3. What happens to your short position when the "British Tungsten Corp" merger drops and the market realizes the combined NPV is over £2.2 Billion?

4. Do you realize that at 81.3p (Target 42), the big index trackers like BlackRock are legally FORCED to buy because the company hits the FTSE AIM 100?

5. How long before a major like Glencore or Rio Tinto bids £1.35+ just to secure the only Western supply chain left for the semiconductor and defense industries?

What’s your thoughts? I think the rocket had the test flight and is now refuelling for orbit. If you don’t get in now you will miss the grand voyage.

Got some more at 27.2p

Hi HopefulDevon, in plain English: what you are seeing today is a textbook liquidity sweep.

Market makers use the current "silence" to drop the price just enough to trigger all the retail stop losses sitting right under the 30p psychological mark. They do this to "flush" the weak hands and sweep those shares into institutional hands before the next leg up.

If you look at the chart, we just tested the Golden Pocket support (61.8% Fib). This is the exact floor we’ve been tracking. It is a structural requirement for a move this large—you have to clear the deck of short-term flippers before the March 31st US EXIM RNS can land. Nothing has changed with the $2,250 MTU maths or the $3.2B rerated NPV.

Valii, the B-share conversion is the final bridge. Once that debt is officially equity, the banking documentation is "clean" and the "blocking" narrative dies. This intraday noise is just the spring being compressed even further.

Hold tight. The maths don't lie, even when the screen is red.

Valii, good points, but here is why the B-share to Ordinary conversion is the "Proof of Life" the bank needs:

1. Structural Cleanliness: You’re right that the CLN debt is technically converted to B-shares, but banks like US EXIM hate hybrid structures. B-shares are a "legacy" instrument. A senior lender wants a clean, transparent Ordinary share registry before they take a primary charge on the assets. It removes any legal "grey areas" regarding future preference or voting shifts.

2. The "Overhang" Fallacy: You mentioned shares "have to be sold" to enable conversion. This is a misunderstanding. Conversion is an administrative admission to AIM—it’s a paper exercise, not a market event. The only "overhang" is if the holders decide to dump. But look at the March 17 RNS—Maxey and Drakewood converted 33.8m shares and didn't sell a single one. Why would they? They know the rerated NPV math better than anyone.

3. Rule 9 & The Endgame: The B-shares only exist to prevent the "Big 3" from accidentally triggering a mandatory takeover bid (Rule 9) while the company was in a weak position. Converting them now is the signal that the "weak" phase is over. It’s the board saying: "The funding is secure, and we are ready to show our full hand."

It’s not about waiting for conversion; it’s about alignment. The bank wants to see the conversion finished because it proves the major shareholders are 100% committed to the equity, not the debt.

Thank you. The golden pocket is 27.32 and we might be heading there for a very short period. If you can get in now or near those prices you are in for a treat. Congratulation to those already in. I’m no longer trying to “penny pinch” and accepted I’ve got shares in a world class asset at a massive discount. We are going to see an explosive move once Tungsten West gets “de-risked”. My prediction is 45p-55p by the end of April (conservative).

The Structural Reality

I believe the house cleaning is nearly over. We have 257 million B shares left to convert and once those are flushed, the debt is gone. The balance sheet is officially sanitized for the March 31 US EXIM Bank deal.

We are very unlikely to see the mid 20s again. Why? Because the floor has fundamentally moved. We have seen millions of shares absorbed by diamond hands between 29p and 32p. Lansdowne, Coffey, and Maxey own over 55% of the registry. These institutions don't sell for a 10% flip; they are here for the vertical re-rating.

NPV Rerating: The MTU Math

The August 2025 study used a "dead" APT price of $400/mtu. The February update moved that to $1,313/mtu and jumped the NPV to $1.7 billion. But look at the screen today.

March 18, 2026 spot APT is trading at $2,250/mtu.

When we rerate the NPV using these current numbers, the math becomes undeniable:

• Old Baseline: $400/mtu = $190M NPV.

• Feb Update: $1,313/mtu = $1.7B NPV.

• Current Spot: $2,250/mtu = $3.24B Rerated NPV.

Using the fully diluted share count of ~1.47 billion shares (post B-share conversion), the Technical Fair Value is now £1.70 per share.

The 20 Bagger Endgame

At the current 31.5p price, we are looking at a clear path to a 20 bagger.

• The Cash Machine: At $2,250/mtu and full production (3,320t per annum), TUN generates roughly $700 million in EBITDA every year.

• The Valuation: At a conservative 10x EBITDA multiple, the company is worth $7 billion.

• The Target: That gives us a share price of £3.66.

• The 20 Bagger Strike: To hit the £6.20 mark (a true 20x from here), we only need the market to apply a 17x multiple—standard for a strategic asset that provides 20% of the West's non-Chinese tungsten supply.

The Bottom Line: You are buying a $3.2B asset for a $400M market cap. The 257M B shares are the last piece of the bridge. Once the bank RNS drops and the "Offer" side vanishes on the SETSqx tape, the move to £1.70 and beyond is inevitable. The spring is fully coiled.

133,000 shares holding. Wish I had more cash to buy more.