Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Ah yes!. Thanks
I noticed a message on the Fusion Antibodies twitter account detailing a grant for them and Queens Uni Belfast from Invest NI for £453,000 to accelerate the discovery of novel therapeutic and diagnostic antibodies with validated anti-infective properties against COVID-19.
Is this not worth an RNS?. Or am I missing something?
Whilst not exactly spectacular, l think these are decent results in the circumstances of the global pandemic. Revenue and profit up. Debt down. Next few years looking good for 5G and military sector.
90% success so far, for people who had a half dose first then a full dose a month later I think. Needs some tweaking to work out the best combination of doses I suppose. Overall it is, in my opinion, a good result in the fight against the virus. Testing will still be needed though...
Acuere. OK thanks for the clarification. However, if they were doing 8-10m lab tests in late July, l would hope that they are doing a lot more now. Then add the rollout of Near Patient Testing, hopefully the December total test figure will be big. I am off to sleep. Hope to get some good news this morning.
Shaun P,
I think that my maths is correct. However I agree that my estimate of how many tests per month are just that, an estimate. Maybe a bit bullish I agree. My reasoning is that if they are increasing the amount of PCR machines fivefold, surely the amount of subsequent tests will increase exponentially.
We shall see.
Thanks for the usual informative input on this BB. I am very excited by the prospects of the Company. As the R&D RNS stated: - From November 2020, the Company has scaled-up manufacturing capacity for instrument production more than five-fold, with further expansion planned, depending on continued demand.
If the rate of tests produced was previously estimated as 10 million per month and the approximate revenue per test is £8, then the potential monthly revenue for Novacyt up to summer 2021 is simply astronomical.
By my basic maths is correct, if they sell at for example only 50% of presumed capacity, 25m tests per month, that is £200m revenue a month.
The RNS statement does say 'more than 5 fold' and 'with further expansion planned, depending on continued demand'.
My view is that the LFT tests are too inaccurate and PCR tests will be required right through 2021 at least. LAMP tests will take a while to implement and Novacyt look to have a potential piece of this pie, so the future looks bright.
If the UK government do not want most of Novacyt product, I think they will find plenty of demand abroad. For example my Google news feed came up with an article from India today which detailed how the authorities there are increasingly focussing on PCR tests. I also read an article in today's Times detailing growing concern over Covid mutation which I assume will need ongoing testing.
I agree. The fact that the Innova LFT tests appear to miss between 25% and 50% of corona virus cases is shocking. This is an almost criminal misuse of public money by the government and their cronies.
I can remember listening to Prof John Deeks from the Uni of Birmingham last week on Nicky Campbell's BBC Five Live radio show. He mentioned that he was concerned about the failure rate of the Innova test. This disquiet seems to be spreading judging by the Daily Mail article link discussed earlier this evening on this BB.
I think that the failure of the Innova devices is bad news in the short run for our countries fight against the virus, but could actually be positive for Novacyt as more emphasis should be placed on its more accurate PCR devices being rolled out nationwide. Hopefully we can also come up with much more accurate LFT and LAMP fast tests as outlined in todays R&D update RNS.
I was going to post earlier regarding how it would be good if the company could give us some news from Gelesis, to highlight Puretech's very promising portfolio as they launch on Nasqaq. Low and behold they release an RNS. Not, however, on the lead product - Plenity (an aid for weight management in overweight and obese adults), but another hydrogel product - Gel-B (a prototype of GS300) to potentially treat fatty liver disease. This is early stage stuff, but never the less very promising. I would like some sales figures on Plenity as well.
Sp has reacted well to the companies recent updates. If we could punch above resistance at 290 it could really motor.
I reckon this BB could start to get busy. There has been a lot of money made on Covid testing shares this year. Some of them have stalled on vaccine news, maybe when the word gets out about Puretech's potential, the Eye could turn over here. Consolidated Cash Reserves at 30 June 2020 were $340.1 million and we still own about 13% of Karuna.....
Yes Sharehunter, and by Q421, Novacyt will be able to implement it's diversification strategy as you outlined in an earlier post. Very exciting. I might take a little profit if the sp rises before Xmas. But will hold the majority to see how next year pans out.
...... 'Respiratory and transplant are both high-margin, fast-growing IVD markets where the Company already has expertise, including COVID-19 and EBV and BKV products launched last year. Novacyt intends to leverage the new customers and brand position it has established during the COVID-19 pandemic to further penetrate these markets through 2021 and beyond. Importantly, Novacyt will use the skills, infrastructure and experience of both its business divisions (Primerdesign and Lab21) to deliver solutions that utilise the Group's protein and molecular diagnostic capabilities.'
I think it is going to take a while to get everyone vaccinated next year. As per an article in The Times today, The government seems to be indicating a 3 phase strategy. 1: most vulnerable (carehomes etc), 2: geared towards preventing hospital admissions, 3: The final phase would be aimed at attaining herd immunity through vaccinating the rest of the adult population, although this is thought unlikely before the summer.
Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford, said that there was a “70-80 per cent chance” of vaccinating all vulnerable groups by Easter, “provided they don’t screw up the distribution of the vaccine”.
So, in my view, the need for quality testing from Novacyt is going to be very high right through into Q42021. They are likely to have to test for anomalies like mutations and non-symtomatic spread all year.
I have been driving a lot today and listed to the BBC news this morning and at lunchtime. Pretty much every expert agreed that it will be a significant amount of months into next year before the majority of the population is vaccinated. In my opinion Novacyt PCRs will be flat out until next summer at the earliest. Big logistical issues with vaccinations needing cold temperatures and taking place at already overworked surgeries and hospitals.
I also feel the shortcomings with the lateral flow tests will be highlighted and PCR will come through as the most trusted option. Novacyt have embedded themselves with their equipment in literally hundreds of medical institutions world wide this year. They can build on this base by introducing new testing equipment post Covid. They are in a great position.
New products in the pipeline.
If the sp moves towards £2, I for one will be adding to my position. Doubt if it will though...
Good article on the testing situation in the US. I particularly liked the following:
... 'In the U.S. only a few companies have been granted FDA Emergency Use Authorization to sell rapid diagnostic tests, and most of these tests are manufactured offshore. Transferring the manufacturing technology for these high-quality tests to the U.S. and building up local manufacturing facilities would quickly increase the supply. '...
Mastermix
I remember some discussion on this board about a month ago regarding Optigene. There was an opinion that Novacyt may be able to work in their process, maybe providing materials like masterminded, doing retests in labs and potentially distribution.
I noticed this article in The Guardian as well. Are Novacyt planning a product like this?