Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Energy crisis spurs South Africa to declare State of Disaster
The government want this to happen, the country needs this to happen. It will happen.
Glencore negotiating with the Japanese next month - time for a squeeze in coal prices?
this was company's response on GSP:
"The GSP are our long-term assets and we have secured mining rights for all three project areas and anticipate applying for the necessary environmental and water licenses in CY2023/CY2024 once the required studies have been completed. The GSP is a significant resource and we will undertake further exploration work on key target areas with a particular focus on upgrading our coking coal Reserve. We will evaluate then, the next steps and options as our information base improves."
I think Senosi will be driving the project forward. Not sure about AM.
Convo with the company this week suggested they will go down the debt finance route and have everything finished this quarter. Equity financing too expensive, so no more dilution.
Maybe you’re underestimating 2023. For Q1 we have 48,045 combined at harbour and at Uitkomst which Overlooked should sell in Q1 as part of the original 120,000 original agreement. We have another 15k/month for Overlooked this quarter so that’s 45k.
So Revenue in Q1 is (48,045+45,000) x (API4 x 0.95). Average of the forward curve for this quarter is $170 which gives us ~$15m
I emailed a couple of people I know at the company regarding GSP to follow up on the statement they made in the August RNS/SENS release where they are considering their options. (For those that are new here, GSP is 5 times bigger than Makhado). And as you correctly point out we bought this for $75m when coal prices were lower and we didn’t have some of the permits. I don’t think Senosi will want this asset to sit idle, and should be generating revenues. The priority has always been Makhado but now MMSEZ is a go-er the new board might see things differently, especially with Vele potentially generally $8m/year and the Overlooked agreement for Uitkmost meaning our financial position is a lot healthier.
Vele got put on care and maintenance because of falling coal prices, water permit requirements, issues with the wash plant and investment needed for improvements.
At that time, they would have needed $25m (and higher coal prices) to update the wash plant etc which would then allow them to process 2.7Mtpa ROM coal at an overall product yield of 44% to give ~1.2Mtpa product
This was taken from 2014 Peel Hunt update. I'll go through article fully next week and try to update for today's prices/exchange rates etc
Most investment banks are predicting another bumper year for commodities, thermal and coking coal are both at the top of lists for best expected performers. Global demand for coal in 2022 was the highest on record and this is expected to continue in 2023.
Weather in Europe is unseasonably warm and European gas prices have come off considerably. A cold blast or deterioration in the Russia/Ukraine conflict and we'll rally back very quickly.
this was the last update from August:
MC Mining has interests in various exploration assets in the Limpopo province, including the three project areas comprising the GSP, namely Chapudi, Generaal and Mopane. These are all longer-term development opportunities and the Company is in the process of re-assessing the carrying values of these projects given their longer-term development horizons and the current focus on other projects.
Will try and follow up with them. Not as clued in as when Brown/Berlin were there but will see what I can find out
Still here – everything in place for a stellar 2023 in my opinion.
Wasn’t anything to really report back on from the AGM. Unfortunately was held in SA so couldn’t attend in person – always better to see these people face-to-face and find out exactly what’s going on.
Initially they went through the routine business of the AGM (very time consuming and nothing interesting here). Then it went to questions and some other punter got in before me. He rambled on for 10-mins without asking anything directly and they loosely talked around what he said, and by that point, an hour in, I had to go into another meeting and it concluded.
They placed emphasis on Makhado, but there was evidently something going in with Vele, which they seemed bullish about but didn’t give any further info;
They were bullish overall. Senosi was there – believe there was a site visit, hence the AGM not in London;
Were friendly to coal prices;
Nothing mentioned on GSP
Doesn’t sound like they’ll remove any of the 3 listings soon. London listing looks safe
Regarding recent developments. Well the Vele news is great, $8m in profit/year against $1.2m care and maintenance. Not only that, come December 2027 we’ll have a fully functioning colliery with 35+ years left.
Senosi seems to be taking us forward and scooping up available coal assets in SA – positive to me that he was at the AGM.
Added a few more recently, everything in place for a move up, hopefully we get some decent press and recommendation as stock for 2023