Oil28 Jul 2023 08:04
In our view the rise in prices is a belated market acknowledgment of a significant tightening. We expect a seasonal increase in demand to combine with producer output restraint to create large supply deficits over the next two months,” they added.
In the report, the Standard Chartered analysts noted that their supply and demand model projects supply deficits of 2.81 million barrels per day in August and 2.43 million barrels per day in September, “with further deficits of above two million barrels per day in November and December and again in February 2024”.
The analysts projected in the report that global inventories will fall by 310 million barrels per day by end-2023 and by a further 94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, “keeping oil markets backwardated and pulling prices higher”.
“Our average Brent price forecasts are unchanged at $88 per barrel for Q3 and $93 per barrel for Q4,” the analysts stated in the report.
“We expect demand to reach an all-time high in August and then set new highs in December 2023, and February, March, June, and August 2024,”