Supply and demand2 Jun 2025 07:32
Looking forward to this month.
Expect to see copper prices to continue to climb.
Copper will be in short supply sit back and watch.
Macquarie considers how the May 20 suspension of underground mining operations at the massive Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will impact the copper market, and therefore copper prices and listed copper stocks. The mine, which is 40-40-20% owned by Vancouver-based Ivanhoe Mines (TSE: IVN), China’s Zijin Mining Group, and the DRC government, experienced multiple roof falls after a series of seismic events. Two of the mine’s three processing plants are now also operating at reduced capacity.
Ivanhoe, the mine’s operator, has chosen to withdraw 2025 calendar year production guidance of 520-580kt while it assesses the damage of the seismic events, and while it attempts repairs to underground infrastructure. According to all reports from the company so far, it’s unclear when production at the mine will restart.
Kamoa-Kakula was one of the world’s top five producers, and its shutdown has had a “significant impact” on global copper supply, suggests Macquarie. The broker’s modelling indicates that about 2.3% of annual global mine production is likely lost at least temporarily. Further, Kamoa-Kakula was of particular importance to the Chinese copper supply chain, responsible for around 8% of the country’s copper concentrate imports.
Macquarie also notes that Kamoa-Kakula’s shutdown comes as the 330ktpa Cobre Panama mine remains closed due to environmental concerns; it represented approximately 1.5% of global copper supply. “In light of the Kamoa-Kakula outage, copper concentrate inventories should remain tight, and this could help to support prices, in our view,” the broker concludes.
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