in put please8 Apr 2021 22:29
Been thinking can I have your thoughts please just trying to find a balanced view in light of this week and the bored being s**t at their job.
From 1/1/2021 OIL @ 12,000 bopd x 330 days a year = 3,960,000 MMbbls (To 1/1/2022)
CPR - ERCE are saying there are 7.1MMstb at Gross 2P and have assuumed a Brent oil price of US$50/bbl in 2021 then US$53/bbl in 2022 then US$55/bbl in 2023 and US$56/bbl in 2024 and thereafter in real terms. Prices are escalated at 2.0% per annum inflation
From 1/1/2021 3,960,000 MMbblls x US$50/bbl in 2021 = $198,000,000 this year + $106,000,000 net free cash =$304,000,000 (At of 1/1/2022)
From 1/1/2022
OIL @ 10,000 bopd x 180 days AT US$53/bbl in 2022 = $95,400,000 net free cash of $399,400,000 (At of 1/6/2022)
Minus Convertible Bond US $220,000,000
EQUALS TO US$179,400,000 NET FREE CASH IN THE BANK + THAT IS ONLY 5,760,000 MMstb OF THE 7.1MMstb at Gross 2P CPR - ERCE are saying there NOW
From 1/1/2021 3,960,000 MMbblls x US$55/bbl in 2021 = $217,800,000 this year + $106,000,000 net free cash =$323,800,000 (At of 1/1/2022)
From 1/1/2022
OIL @ 10,000 bopd x 180 days AT US$58/bbl in 2022 = $104,400,000 net free cash of $428,200,000 (At of 1/6/2022)
Minus Convertible Bond US $220,000,000
EQUALS TO US$208,200,000 NET FREE CASH IN THE BANK + THAT IS ONLY 5,760,000 MMstb OF THE 7.1MMstb at Gross 2P CPR - ERCE are saying there NOW
From 1/1/2021 3,960,000 MMbblls x US$60/bbl in 2021 = $237,600,000 this year + $106,000,000 net free cash =$343,600,000 (At of 1/1/2022)
From 1/1/2022
OIL @ 10,000 bopd x 180 days AT US$63/bbl in 2022 = $113,400,000 net free cash of $457,000,000 (At of 1/6/2022)
Minus Convertible Bond US $220,000,000
EQUALS TO US$237,000,000 NET FREE CASH IN THE BANK + THAT IS ONLY 5,760,000 MMstb OF THE 7.1MMstb at Gross 2P CPR - ERCE are saying there NOW
plus any assets
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet as at 30 June 2020
Net assets US$383,857,000
I apologise in advance if I'm wrong and way out.
Good luck and DYOR