RE: Bonkers10 Mar 2018 16:07
I can't argue with your view on the chart - it's one of those formations where all the upside options are on the radar and that makes sense given what's at play here on the fundamentals side while we await the next load of near-term news.
I can't see it breaking 2p now to the downside (very short-term shakes aside) and if they try it it'll likely get clattered back up based on the chart alone, never mind any potential upside.
I'd need a bloody good reason to not buy around here/now based on the chart alone, even if I was oblivious to the fundamentals side of the story, given the slowly ascending but very long-term support line at c2p now.
We've all seen the power in that line in the past on multiple occasions (6x bagger the first time around!) and I'd be surprised to not see that same power move the SP significantly in the coming period, particularly as this is so well priced against the cash/liquid assets as we understand them.
Quite where it will go to in a first move to the upside is anyone's guess. Presumably, the initial height and/or speed will be driven by the nature of the news. Clearly, beating c2.5p is a huge pivot here but once that's beaten then pick a number from 3p through to 7s imo with my own "weighted likelihood/fast straight line move" target being 5s based on techs.
What I can't speak to is how long it takes to blow away 2.5p but on the assumption that we're now very likely indeed to see a higher lows vs a flat-top formation at 2.5p then that could be blown away next week or, maybe, run for another few months (absolute MAX).
The manipulation, however, to keep it going sideways/up for that length of time below 2.5p would have to be immense I think and while it's doing that you're just one news bomb away from being locked out and having to buy at who-knows-what price because on the right news here they simply won't let you get in at 2.anything imo based on my hard-won prior experience.
I think it highly likely that we'll see that production expansion case become the base case this year and if Copper should happen to fly to upper $3s (if they're striking in Chile then it could be days/weeks away -
no sh**) then that gives us a whopping slice of a c$3/4b NPV asset with likely lots more upside to come in the months ahead so everyone needs to make a brew and just ponder that imo while we're all having our patience tested here.
Let me just add to the "lock out" angle here:
All of the above is predicated on the "normal" good news you see in a share - nice assays etc BUT as we've tried to outline in our blog these past six months+, there's a possible deal in the offing here (JV/equity swap) that could see this open multiple pennies higher at 08:00 one day and that will then be the new bottom - we've updated the blog this morning with another take on that deal that could add *another* �10m of value to MTR over and above the +�10s millions we'd already identified.