RE: VSA15 Apr 2018 09:40
Always happy to hear other people's perspectives if they'll at least back them up :)
Point taken about mcap/shares but as you point out that's only one part of the equation and I think it fair to push back on that to an extent as the mcap is lower than a year ago (going by your numbers) yet the progress in Botswana is clear and both parties are looking pretty good in terms of their respective cash positions for the forseeable (2018).
Surely that's the opportunity flag being raised?
What the position is in 2019 in the run up to production is anyone's guess of course but there's a lorra water (and copper hopefully!) to flow under the bridge between now and then.
My perspective of being in a better position than last year is primarily predicated on the progress, albeit slower than originally hoped for, in Botswana with a very solid PFS booked and even better post-PFS infill grades being published just recently so it's all starting to become far less speculative and much more real in those terms and still with an unknowable amount of upside to come during 2018's ongoing drill campaign.
Will our "acorn" grow into a mighty oak during 2018? I've no idea but the salient point I'd suggest is that the base case SP/mcap-wise looks pretty good around here at this price/time with no upside already priced in, in fact, "failure" is already priced in!
We've got lots of cash, MOD have lots of cash, further drill approvals are coming/in already so there would appear to be lots to look forward to in the coming weeks/months plus whatever other news may crop up now the MOD share issue is fixed post-funding which may, or may not, involve a corporate action JV/equity swap - speculative there for sure but you can see how that may be on the table now the funding is sorted for the forseeable.
I'm not sure I get the rose-tinted dig tbh but this is what I see:
We've got lots of cash + liquid assets that underpin this from at least 1.8s upwards with ZERO upside priced in
The 2p warrants are gone
The Chairman took another 2m shares over and above his 2p warrants allocation recently at 2.25p
We've seen a TR1 from a HNW at 2p
A bunch of people allocating much/all of their 2018/2019 ISA allowance at the current price in the past week, many of them very clearly at Mate's Rates of 1.9p
The very solid PFS is booked/banked
Better-than-the-PFS infill grades just announced
Assays from a further 34 holes expected anytime
Latest AEM survey results expected anytime
Massive ongoing 2018 drilliing is funded with some further drill approvals already in
Resource upgrade arriving soon - could make the expansion case nailed-on
Copper in a key technical battle right now with the rising weekly MA50 @ $3
The last L2 I saw had perennial market manipulators CFEP at 2.05p and all the other MMs at 2.2p
Very short-term "market" shenangians to come? Maybe but there can't be much wriggle room/time left here