RE: LLoyds5 Aug 2018 01:23
@ Apple - FWIW, here's my view:
Banks make money by lending money at an interest rate.
Interest rates have been VERY low for a long time and, imo, the very few rate rises we've seen over the past year or so are only so the money guys have at least one lever left to pull on, by lowering rates again, should the economy(s) start to fall to pieces.
If you're in the money lending business then you need two things to go up if you're going to grow the business:
1/ The amount of borrowing by people and companies
and/or
2/ Interest rates
As I'm sure you're aware, right now we've got most of the Western hemisphere up to their eyeballs in debt (people, companies and countries!) so the option of growing the amount of money you're lending (in real, inflation-adjusted terms) is pretty bloody slim because at some point, nobody can pay it back as they're already maxed out. When you get to that stage, your risk of default (losing your money completely, never mind making a profit on it via interest!) goes up exponentially of course.
Given the above debt levels scenario, taking the other option of raising interest rates on loans to any significant degree is fraught with risk, both in terms of forcing people or companies or countries into default on existing loans without a fixed rate (including mortgages of course) but also putting pressure on the economy in general as you make it harder for companies to borrow at repayment rates that they can afford, just like regular people, so there goes your wider economy growth.
The other factor at play here is inflation.
My view is that Western countries, the UK and the US in particular, have to use artificially increased inflation to reduce the level of their debt. In a higher inflation environment, the historical debt shrinks over time naturally as inflation starts to overtake debt taken at a fixed and low interest rate. IMO, this is already in play via a long-planned devaluation of the Dollar.
Why is the Dollar relevant to inflation outside of the US?
Because all commodities, oil, gas, steel, copper, coal etc are priced in Dollars so as the Dollar drops in value, inflation across the entire planet goes up because everyone, people and businesses, buy those items in Dollars which now cost more in real terms because the Dollar is weaker.
IMO, this is a one-way street and it will go on for a decade+, they have no choice but to do it.
Why is inflation an issue for money lenders?
See the above re debt levels and ability to pay back/borrow more - if inflation goes up then EVERYONE has less spare cash than they had before even if they earn the same and they don't borrow any more money.
Add in systemic/international risk factors like Greece/Italy et al and all in all, it is beyond me why anyone would put money into any financial/money lending institution because I can't see the growth but the risk factors are blindingly clear.
HTH!