Member Info for bonker99

Something like that ;)

It will and it is required now/soon - i.e. Q1/H1 2019 - the scale of some of the opportunities here are breathtaking but at some point you have to solidify the potential into, as you say, a tangible value proposition that people can work some numbers on to justify a given mcap.

Large scale lithium and gold are both pretty good bets for the next ten+ years imo :)

Aye up Bolgas :)

The issue with the economics is that they're not remotely tied down yet with the DFS still to be published. A typical PFS will be anything up to +-30% from the DFS so there's a lot of wriggle room there between the two, in theory, although I don't expect anything like the -30% possibility to apply from PFS > DFS here given the improvements in recovery rate and increased resource etc since the February PFS. Indeed it would seem more likely that +some percentage is likely to apply from PFS > DFS, if anything.

As I've said on a number of occasions already, the play here (clearly!) is to bury this as low as possible ahead of the DFS for a guaranteed win when that DFS drops and MOD's mcap at least doubles. Barring a Copper price collapse and/or MOD dropping the ball on the DFS NPV valuation that mcap doubling is going to happen. All the better if you can bury the MOD mcap first though of course ...

Ordinarily, I'd suggest/have suggested this is as low as this will go given the nature of the TA/NAV pivot but I don't know how low they intend to force MOD down ahead of their raise/mcap doubling and given the pro HNWs organised assault on me today I do have to wonder if they're looking to set me up as the Bin Laden bad guy here ahead of what they're going to do next - wtf knows, it's all part of the game and duck's back to me but apparently today was the day re whatever comes next.

24.8% of MOD + £3m cash + £1m(?) in THR.

Go right ahead and add it up and come up with a NAV-based SP on 1.35b shares.

I don't give a toss about my "credibility" here or anywhere else :)

The P&D mob took her up and the same P&D mob took her down again - again. Said mob will not think twice about trying to hang the dump on me because I won't re-support their latest short cover - once bitten mate but I wish you all luck.

Members of the same HNW crew were also shouting the SP odds back then ahead of a turned-out-to-be-BS "campaign" from MOD - the fact that MOD have basically achieved nothing with their money over six months (with 5x the cash and the same amount of time it took to get T3 from hole #1 to a maiden 28mt resource ffs!) other than an LSE listing and a DFS isn't on me and neither is the P&D - I don't have that level of clout but I know a few faces who do ...

Neither am I the guy who dumped 20m+ shares at 2.40p to purposely break her down but I know who did and likely as not, so do you.

If MOD had delivered this year the SP wouldn't be anywhere near here and neither would it be if MTR hadn't vanished £3m of cash away via their "trading arm" in H1. Sorry, I do of course mean £3.2m ...........

As I said over a month ago on here at 1.8p, I could see the SP being halfway between where it could end down/up pre/post DFS and here we are at 1.3p. Trouble is, MOD have published the apparent necessity to raise $64m by end of Q1 2019 since then so funnily enough that's given the non-ITK people the jitters so their mcap has been battered ahead of that raise but that's not my fault either :)

Crack on with the (oh-so-predictable) public lynching of me if it fits what you need to do. I'm aware of all the HNW pro panto acts and costume changes played out for the public's "benefit", it matters not a jot to me :)

No cigar on beating the big 15s pivot then - yet - but WTI has just spiked +5% in a day ffs so talk about all over the place :)

So, we're looking at something like 50% of the current mcap thrown off in FCF based on the lower level of 2019 production guidance?

In the current market, where cash is king, that sounds extremely attractive plus the promise of gold meandering its way upwards in reaction to the Fed's bluff being called (again) when they can't raise interest rates during 2019 which may well give another boost.

Add in some extra feed from local exploration success, as announced today (terrific grade highlights), and there would seem to be plenty of possible upside here.

Barring any more Black Swan stuff, either locally or macro (seems very unlikely to moi), and align a new duck or two as above and I'd be pencilling in 40-65p here.

If any of you local fundies have numbers at hand on prior/projected production and probable upper processing constraints I'd like to hear them - bit busy right now.

£1

Yes there is and a shitt*n in wind farms and solar too. Trust me, I'm a major Copper Bull but some think it could be sideways for a year or so, especially if Trump and co manage to engineer the near/recession the money guys are desperately trying to make happen :)

Ideally, you'd be looking to get the next raise away at mid 20s after a decent rise above that but let's see how she goes.

We all know how many irons these guys have in the fire and vastly sized irons at that but 2019 H1 simply must be about consolidation in the eyes of investors as to which of these assets they're going to focus on developing rather than just exploring - then we can start to pencil in some upside valuations with an eye on a PMs/EV boom cycle going forward.

Yup, my general read going forward is that the West NEEDS inflation but debt levels are so high that it's likely that (artifical though it may be) inflation outstrips interest rates for quite some time from here, probably for at least five years and that's a "cycle".

I don't buy real GDP growth anywhere now except developing countries which will continue to be stellar imo.

In that environment I think cost-cutting is king and that reads very well into the switch to EVs.

I suspect the EV rise and GDP sidewaysing will cancel each other out on Copper for a while BUT if the devaluation of the Dollar is part of the drive-inflation plan (and I'm certain that it is) then that's obviously going to make all commodities go up.

All the more so on PMs, however, if cash is threatened via that inflation > interest rates setup I see for the forseeable - it's a heady, heady mix for a booming PMs cycle imo.

Yup, it's a good shout - better to get funded while you still can if the short-term looks uncertain re cash availability, even if that very same period looks promsiing for metals/PMs ...

Afternoon.

I like Silver an awful lot - FRES/HOC/POLY et al.

Copper is tough because of the wider market wobbles that may make PMs do well in 2019 but the longer-term outlook is stellar re all things EV.

No idea on palladium though I know it's done very well but the platinum wobbles are probably linked to cars/catalytic converters too.

Aye up tom - fancy meeting you again :)

In combo at first for the superconducting and not in our/my lifetime :)

You are more right about that than you'll, probably, ever know mate ;)

The other mob seem to be having fun :)

Copper playing nicely at the mo.

Aye up Toro :)

I really am liking PMs going forward, especially Silver (and Gold of course) so Chad bringing home some bacon would be good imo.

Lithium is Lithium of course.

I'll try and catch up when I get time.

In the meantime, I'm hoping for a mid-upper 20s bounce here then see which way the wind blows - nothing guaranteed as ever but she's hugely oversold on the daily now.

I had a look at WRES recently and couldn't "see it" but maybe I didn't try hard enough :)

I haven't kept up with Chad/Ghana - what's the overall jist at this point?

Holes/grades etc.

Pretty pointless throwing mud at anyone in this game - everyone gets them right/wrong, the only thing that matters is how YOU react to the winners and the losers - hold or fold ...

Big oil draw miss today - WTI dumped - not helpful :)

Of course the Copper price is relevant :)

MOD's PFS/DFS NPV sensitivity analysis on the prevailing Copper price is virtually all here.

We know from the PFS - assuming it's anywhere near the reality of the upcoming DFS - that MOD/MTR are screwed if Copper plummets (sub-$2.4 looks bad to moi) or they're laughing if Copper goes north of $3 so it's the biggest single factor outside of the final DFS numbers in Q1.

By my reckoning, MTR are currently worth something like 1.1p - the issue is what's going to happen to MOD's mcap ahead of the DFS? I know as much as I can possible know that it'll be way higher than it currently is on a decent DFS and a decent Copper price but I've no idea what may happen between now and the end of Q1 as alluded to some time ago.

In the meantime, the HNW's will do their worst - as sure as eggs is eggs they already have the numbers and are looking to push this down as low as they can get it ahead of, hopefully, a big (multiplying if they can get it low enough) win in Q1/Q2.

Evening - the problem with the supply vs demand point is that there's likely anything up to £6m worth of new shares being dumped to facilitate the P&D short.

Moreover, MMs don't answer to the FCA or anyone else - not that it's the MMs initiating the dumping of course - they're just bystanders in the main though one of them (guess who ...) will have the "order" of course.