RE: Proven CO2 capture....EU will be all over this!26 Aug 2025 11:13
Just for you mikee -p. Maybe you missed it when Avi8r posted it 🤔
Anticipation Building5 Jul 2025 16:10
Down route, cant sleep so thought I'd ask some of the more popular AI searches about the potential here. The answers serve to support rlightor and bobby's comments but the figures are incredible. These figures are not guesses, but based on information available from multiple sources:
Project III Farm-Out Success Scenarios
The Project III farm-out, targeting 2.77 TCF of 2C contingent gas resources with an NPV of $1.67 billion, offers transformational value depending on retention levels:
Conservative Scenario (10% Retention). Retained Value: $167 million
Target Share Price: 17.2p
Moderate Scenario (25% Retention). Retained Value: $418 million
Target Share Price: 42.9p
Optimistic Scenario (40% Retention). Retained Value: $668 million
Target Share Price: 68.6p
CCS Project Value Addition opportunity adds substantial additional value through 256 million metric tonnes of CO₂ storage capacity. With carbon credit prices ranging from $50-100 per tonne, the CCS project alone could be worth:
Conservative: $12.8 billion total value
Moderate: $19.2 billion total value
Optimistic: $25.6 billion total value
Assuming Block Energy retains 50% economic interest after partnerships, the retained CCS value ranges from $6.4-12.8 billion.
Combined Success Scenarios
When both Project III farm-out and CCS project succeed simultaneously:
Conservative Combined (P3 10% + CCS Low): Combined Value: $6.57 billion
Share Price: 675p
Moderate Combined (P3 25% + CCS Medium): Combined Value: $10.02 billion
Share Price: 1,029p
Optimistic Combined (P3 40% + CCS High): Combined Value: $13.47 billion
Share Price: 1,383p
Risk-Adjusted Optimum Price - Applying realistic success probabilities: Project III Success: 70% (based on current farm-out discussions and industry interest)
CCS Success: 60% (based on successful pilot completion and commercialization)
Risk-Adjusted Target: 622p
Timeline and Catalysts. The optimum share price achievement depends on key milestones:
Q4 2025 - Q1 2026: Project III farm-out completion expected
Mid-2025: CCS pilot injection scheduled
Q4 2025: CCS pilot results and commercial assessment
2026: Full-scale development decisions for both projects
These are NOT my guesses but from AI. Make of them what you will, but £6.00 share price would be very welcome. Just need to get through the current doldrums and see some positive movement towards supporting the above.
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